A Smooth Transition Autoregressive Approach to Investigating the Market Timing Ability of Fund Managers

2011 ◽  
Author(s):  
George Woodward ◽  
Larry J. Prather
Keyword(s):  
Market Timing ◽  
Smooth Transition ◽  
Fund Managers ◽  
Timing Ability ◽  
Smooth Transition Autoregressive

A SMOOTH TRANSITION AUTOREGRESSIVE APPROACH TO INVESTIGATING THE MARKET TIMING ABILITY OF FUND MANAGERS

2013 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 21-36
Author(s):  
George Woodward ◽  
Larry Prather ◽  
Thomas Zwirlein
Keyword(s):  
Market Timing ◽  
Smooth Transition ◽  
Fund Managers ◽  
Timing Ability ◽  
Smooth Transition Autoregressive

Market Timing Ability of Indian Mutual Fund Managers Under Conditional Models

2011 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bhuvaneswari Palanisamy ◽  
Murugesan Selvam
Keyword(s):  
Mutual Fund ◽  
Market Timing ◽  
Mutual Fund Managers ◽  
Fund Managers ◽  
Timing Ability ◽  
Conditional Models

scholarly journals MANAGERIAL ABILITIES AND FACTOR INVESTMENT STYLE PERFORMANCES OF MALAYSIAN MUTUAL FUND MANAGERS

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 118-135
Author(s):  
Pick-Soon Ling ◽  
Ruzita Abdul-Rahim
Keyword(s):  
Mutual Funds ◽  
Portfolio Management ◽  
Mutual Fund ◽  
Market Timing ◽  
Stock Selection ◽  
Investment Style ◽  
Fund Managers ◽  
Equity Mutual Funds ◽  
Timing Ability ◽  
Stock Picking

Background and Purpose: Studies focusing on mutual fund managerial abilities and investment style strategies are still scarce in the literature. Thus, this study aims to provide new evidence and insights into the managerial abilities and investment style performances of Malaysian fund managers.   Methodology: A total of 444 Malaysian equity mutual funds (EMFs) were evaluated using Carhart’s model incorporated with Treynor-Mazuy (T-M) and Henriksson-Merton (H-M) market timing models for the study period, from January 1995 to December 2017.   Findings: Fund managers displayed superior stock selection skills with 32 percent and 43 percent of funds for T-M and H-M respectively, with perverse market timing ability which accounted for 39 percent and 42 percent of funds for T-M and H-M respectively. Perverse timing ability had reduced the superior stock-picking skills of fund managers. This suggests that the EMFs performance could further improve if respective fund managers perform better in market timing ability. The finding also indicates that size effect (SMB) and value effect (HML) play significant roles in investment style strategies, while results of momentum factor (WML) propose that Malaysian fund managers have followed the contrarian strategy.   Contributions: This study contributes in several ways especially in the literature of portfolio management as the evidence is obtained from the largest mutual funds sample size and the longest study period. Moreover, this study also used the highest frequency data to study the effects of market timing which were overlooked in previous studies.   Keywords: Adjusted carhart, Malaysian market, market timing, mutual fund, stock selection.   Cite as: Ling, P-S., & Abdul-Rahim, R. (2021). Managerial abilities and factor investment style performances of Malaysian mutual funds.  Journal of Nusantara Studies, 6(1), 118-135. http://dx.doi.org/10.24200/jonus.vol6iss1pp118-135

scholarly journals SELECTIVITY AND MARKET TIMING ABILITY OF MUTUAL FUND HOUSES IN EMERGING COUNTRIES

2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (Number 1) ◽  
pp. 21-42
Author(s):  
Anas Ahmad Bani Atta ◽  
Ainulashikin Marzuki
Keyword(s):  
Mutual Fund ◽  
Market Research ◽  
Market Timing ◽  
Emerging Countries ◽  
Investment Opportunity ◽  
Fund Managers ◽  
Management Processes ◽  
Timing Ability ◽  
Different Types ◽  
The Common

The paper investigates the selectivity and market timing ability of fund houses in emerging countries. The study uses comprehensive performance models on fund houses from four emerging countries. Data span is from 2007 to 2018. Findings indicate that fund managers benefit from the common facilities provided by the fund houses like market research, diversification and investment opportunity. Fund houses showed good selectivity skills but poor market timing ability. The possible reason is that fund houses manage large and different types of funds. This resulted in more complex management processes and thus reduced the ability to track the fluctuations in the market. The findings are important for investors as they are able to allocate their resources more effectively to funds that are best managed by fund houses while for managers, they are able to position themselves relative to their competing peers.

scholarly journals Mutual Fund Performance: Evidence from India

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 11714-11723
Keyword(s):  
Portfolio Management ◽  
Mutual Fund ◽  
Market Timing ◽  
Investment Strategy ◽  
Fund Performance ◽  
Mutual Fund Performance ◽  
Stock Selection ◽  
Multifactor Models ◽  
Fund Managers ◽  
Timing Ability

We empirically examine fund managers’ stock selection and market timing ability using various risk-adjusted measures such as CAPM and multifactor models of FamaFrench (1993) and Carhart (1997) to gauge mutual fund performance in India. The sample consists of 183 actively managed equity-oriented funds and covers the period from April 2000 to March 2018. The study, on the whole, documents some evidence of positive and significant stock selection ability but fails to yield any notable evidence of market timing ability of fund managers. Our results are robust according to various riskadjusted performance evaluation techniques, sub-period analysis, excluding the crisis period and at the individual fund level. The findings of our study are in line with the previous studies that report limited selectivity skill and market timing ability among fund managers. The main implication of the study is that active portfolio management may not be very rewarding in comparison to a passive investment strategy.

Sentiment and the Effectiveness of Technical Analysis: Evidence from the Hedge Fund Industry

2016 ◽  
Vol 51 (6) ◽  
pp. 1991-2013 ◽  
Author(s):  
David M. Smith ◽  
Na Wang ◽  
Ying Wang ◽  
Edward J. Zychowicz
Keyword(s):  
Hedge Funds ◽  
Lower Risk ◽  
Market Timing ◽  
Hedge Fund ◽  
Technical Analysis ◽  
Fund Managers ◽  
Short Sale ◽  
Timing Ability ◽  
Fund Industry

This article presents a unique test of the effectiveness of technical analysis in different sentiment environments by focusing on its usage by perhaps the most sophisticated and astute investors, namely, hedge fund managers. We document that during high-sentiment periods, hedge funds using technical analysis exhibit higher performance, lower risk, and superior market-timing ability than nonusers. The advantages of using technical analysis disappear or even reverse in low-sentiment periods. Our findings are consistent with the view that technical analysis is relatively more useful in high-sentiment periods with larger mispricing, which cannot be fully exploited by arbitrage activities because of short-sale impediments.

scholarly journals Do the Israeli Provident Funds have the Ability to Time the Bond and Stock Markets? An Analysis across Alternative Investments

2017 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 169
Author(s):  
Ofer Arbaa ◽  
Eva Varon
Keyword(s):  
Asset Allocation ◽  
Mutual Fund ◽  
Market Timing ◽  
Future Market ◽  
Fund Managers ◽  
Portfolio Holdings ◽  
Early Return ◽  
Timing Ability ◽  
Asset Class ◽  
Timing Decisions

This paper investigates whether Israeli fund managers possess market-timing ability across asset classes over time, using 15 years of monthly data from the Israeli provident funds.  We apply three methodologies based on return based and portfolio holdings approaches. Most of the early return-based timing methods and the most recent portfolio holdings measures suggest that U.S. mutual fund managers do not possess equity timing ability. Our study is the first to test this evidence on multi- asset class provident funds in the Israeli market and compare the timing ability of fund managers in each asset class according to different approaches. We introduce an alternative holdings method that combine the asset allocation theory with that of market timing and use "excess policy" holdings data to predict future market returns.  In addition, previous studies mostly ignore the contribution of other instruments to timing decisions, which may cause any conclusions about managers' timing decisions to be incomplete. Hence, we test equity market timing with respect to all markets using a multiple market index model in the holdings approach. In line with previous research, our empirical results indicate significantly negative market timing in domestic equities according to all the measures used. On the other hand, provident fund managers on average seem to display some timing ability for government bonds.

scholarly journals Measuring the selectivity and market timing performance of Islamic mutual funds in the KSA

Accounting ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. 1067-1072
Author(s):  
Habib Hasnaoui ◽  
Ibrahim Fatnassi
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Mutual Funds ◽  
Market Timing ◽  
Investment Risk ◽  
Large Set ◽  
Kingdom Of Saudi Arabia ◽  
Fund Managers ◽  
Timing Ability ◽  
Investment Patterns

This paper examines the selectivity and market timing abilities of Islamic fund managers in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA), since the empirical research has yet to explore the profitability and investment risk factors involved. We use a uniquely large set of data for 134 Islamic funds for a period from June 2002 to December 2019, and this was free from any survival bias. We found that Islamic fund managers in the KSA demonstrated good selectivity skills but no market timing ability. We also found that Islamic fund managers in the KSA tend to select companies with aggressive investment patterns despite their low profitability.

Emerging market mutual fund performance: evidence for China

2017 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 167-187 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zia-ur-Rehman Rao ◽  
Muhammad Zubair Tauni ◽  
Amjad Iqbal ◽  
Muhammad Umar
Keyword(s):  
Asset Management ◽  
Mutual Fund ◽  
Factor Model ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Market Timing ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Fund Managers ◽  
Developed Markets ◽  
Timing Ability ◽  
Equity Funds

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to find whether Chinese equity funds outperform the market and do Chinese fund managers possess positive market timing ability. This study also aims to investigate whether well-performing (worst) funds of last year continue to perform well (worst) in the following year. Design/methodology/approach Capital Asset Pricing Model and Carhart four-factor model are used for performance analysis, whereas for analyzing market timing ability, the Treynor and Mazuy (1966) and Henriksson and Merton (1981) models are applied. To investigate persistence in the performance of Chinese equity funds, all equity funds are divided, on the basis of performance in the past 12 months, into three equally weighted groups (high, middle and low) and then observed for next 12 months. After that, groups are again rebalanced according to their performance. This study uses a panel regression model for analysis. Findings Chinese equity funds are successful in providing higher than market returns, and fund managers possess positive market timing ability. The authors find that Chinese equity funds do not show persistence in performance as witnessed in developed markets. Well-performing funds (worst funds) of last year do not continue to provide higher (lower) return in the following year. Moreover, the authors detect positive relationship of fund size, age and expense ratio with the fund’s performance. Overall results suggest that emerging market equity funds show better performance than that of developed markets. Practical implications Investors are better off if they invest in equity funds instead of index funds, as results illustrate that equity funds outperformed the market. Further, the strategy of buying well-performing funds of last year and selling poorly performing funds of last year does not look very attractive in China. This study helps investors to understand the Chinese managed funds industry, and such an understanding is also helpful for fund managers and asset management companies who use performance information in marketing strategies. Originality/value This is the first study to investigate the performance persistence in Chinese equity funds and also contributes to the literature about the performance and market timing ability of equity funds. The study takes the sample of 520 equity funds for the period from 2004 to 2014, which includes a period of financial crisis of 2008.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document