scholarly journals The Choice of Discount Rate for Climate Change Policy Evaluation

2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lawrence H. Goulder ◽  
Roberton C. Williams
2012 ◽  
Vol 03 (04) ◽  
pp. 1250024 ◽  
Author(s):  
LAWRENCE H. GOULDER ◽  
ROBERTON C. WILLIAMS

Nearly all discussions about the appropriate consumption discount rate for climate-change policy evaluation assume that a single discount rate concept applies. We argue that two distinct concepts and associated rates apply. We distinguish a social-welfare-equivalent discount rate (r SW ) appropriate for determining whether a given policy would augment social welfare (according to a postulated social welfare function) and a finance-equivalent discount rate (rF) suitable for determining whether the policy would offer a potential Pareto improvement. Distinguishing the two rates helps resolve arguments as to whether the choice of discount rate should be based on ethical considerations or empirical information (such as market interest rates), and about whether the discount rate should serve a prescriptive or descriptive role. Separating out the two rates also helps clarify disputes about the appropriate stringency of climate change policy. We find that the structure of leading numerical optimization models used for climate policy analysis may have helped contribute to the blurring of the differences between r SW and rF. In addition, we indicate that uncertainty about underlying ethical parameters or market conditions implies that both r SW and rF should decline as the time-horizon increases.


Author(s):  
Gustaf Arrhenius ◽  
Mark Budolfson ◽  
Dean Spears

Choosing a policy response to climate change seems to demand a population axiology. A formal literature involving impossibility theorems has demonstrated that all possible approaches to population axiology have one or more seemingly counterintuitive implications. This leads to the worry that because axiological theory is radically unresolved, this theoretical ignorance implies serious practical ignorance about what climate policies to pursue. This chapter offers two deflationary responses to this worry. First, it may be that given the actual facts of climate change, all axiologies agree on a particular policy response. In this case, there would be a clear dominance conclusion, and the puzzles of axiology would be practically irrelevant (albeit still theoretically challenging). Second, despite the impossibility results, the authors prove the possibility of axiologies that satisfy bounded versions of all of the desiderata from the population axiology literature, which may be all that is needed for policy evaluation.


Author(s):  
Osada Vishvajith Peiris

Climate Change (CC) is universally recognized as a major global threat due to its nature of impacts. Island nations are known to be the most vulnerable to CC impacts where many countries have initiated mitigation and adaptation actions through sector-based policy measures. Singapore and Sri Lanka are two Asian island nations with CC induced threats. Two countries are different in terms of economic development, but similar developing countries in the CC agenda. In this context, both the countries have initiated mitigation and adaptation actions through policy measures. This study compares the key climate driven performance indicators with historical data to evaluate the performance of climate change policy of each country. Generally, policy evaluation has been conducted by adopting scientific and non-scientific tools, but it is seldom see that the relation of climate driven indicators along with CC policy. Also the policy research was mostly based on European case studies and Asian island nations were not easy to find in this context. The comparison of two countries in terms of CC policy is to determine the key vulnerable sectors where intervention is necessary for island nations. Mitigation policies are evaluated in Singapore and Sri Lanka using GHG emission pathways under twelve (12) indicators and adaptation policies are measured under the national expenditure of key sectors of the economy under seven (07) indicators. The analysis further elaborated by comparing both countries with key economic sectors that has positive and negative influence on CC impacts. Finally, the analysis outcome is used for lessons to learn from each other in improving the CC policy of Singapore and Sri Lanka. As every country has a unique set of strategies to minimize contributions to CC impacts, unique features that are common to both countries are chosen as variables for the comparison. Policy recommendations are provided to implement solid action plan for post 2020. The study expects to assist island countries to strengthen the CC policy as a national priority to manage unforeseen impacts posed by CC phenomena


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gustaf Arrhenius ◽  
Mark Budolfson ◽  
Dean Spears

Choosing a policy response to climate change seems to demand a population axiology. A formal literature involving impossibility theorems has demonstrated that all possible approaches to population axiology have one or more seemingly counterintuitive implications. This leads to the worry that because axiology is so theoretically unresolved as to permit a wide range of reasonable disagreement, our ignorance implies serious practical ignorance about what climate policies to pursue. We offer two deflationary responses to this worry. First, it may be that given the actual facts of climate change, all axiologies agree on a particular policy response. In this case, there would be a clear dominance conclusion, and the puzzles of axiology would be practically irrelevant (albeit still theoretically challenging). Second, despite the impossibility results, we prove the possibility of axiologies that satisfy bounded versions of all of the desiderata from the population axiology literature, which may be all that is needed for policy evaluation.


2010 ◽  
pp. 115-132 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Agibalov ◽  
A. Kokorin

Copenhagen summit results could be called a failure. This is the failure of UN climate change policy management, but definitely the first step to a new order as well. The article reviews main characteristics of climate policy paradigm shifts. Russian interests in climate change policy and main threats are analyzed. Successful development and implementation of energy savings and energy efficiency policy are necessary and would sufficiently help solving the global climate change problem.


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