Determination of Odds in Prediction Markets: Coexistence of Posted-Offer and Double-Auction Designs

2015 ◽  
Author(s):  
Levent Celik ◽  
Esen Onur
Keyword(s):  
Double Auction ◽  
Prediction Markets ◽  
Posted Offer

Determination of Odds in Prediction Markets: Coexistence of Posted-offer and Double-auction Designs

2015 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 68-86
Author(s):  
Levent Celik ◽  
Esen Onur
Keyword(s):  
Risk Aversion ◽  
Expected Profit ◽  
Sports Betting ◽  
The Other ◽  
Double Auction ◽  
Prediction Markets ◽  
Auction Mechanism ◽  
Pricing Rule ◽  
Posted Offer

This paper studies the coexistence of two competing mechanisms in the same market, where one follows the posted-offer rule and the other one incorporates a double-auction mechanism. We explore this coexistence within a sports betting example in which bettors are free to choose between a bookie (posted-offer market) and a betting exchange. Our findings imply that i) bettors' risk aversion parameter is instrumental in whether these two mechanisms coexist or not, ii) most bettors are strictly better off, and none is worse off, when they have access to both of these competing mechanisms rather than just one, and iii) these results hold even when we allow the bookie to make a positive profit instead of following a zero expected profit pricing rule.

Liquidity Provision and Cross Arbitrage in Continuous Double-Auction Prediction Markets

2014 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 61-86
Author(s):  
Werner Antweiler
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Empirical Analysis ◽  
Double Auction ◽  
Prediction Markets ◽  
Market Maker ◽  
Micro Structure ◽  
Liquidity Provision ◽  
Novel Method ◽  
Continuous Double Auction ◽  
Bid Ask Spreads

Continuous double-auction prediction markets often exhibit low transaction volume due to substantial bid-ask spreads. This paper explores a novel method of providing artificial liquidity in continuous double-auction prediction markets by introducing an automated market maker that engages in zero-profit cross-arbitrage in multi-contract markets. Empirical analysis of observed bid-ask spreads, liquidity, offer acceptance, and order sizes in the 2008 UBC Election Stock Market provides additional new insights into the micro-structure of prediction markets. 

A Comparison of Posted-Offer and Double-Auction Pricing Institutions

1984 ◽  
Vol 51 (4) ◽  
pp. 595-614 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Ketcham ◽  
V. L. Smith ◽  
A. W. Williams
Keyword(s):  
Double Auction ◽  
Posted Offer ◽  
Auction Pricing

A Comparison of Posted-Offer and Double-Auction Pricing Institutions

1991 ◽  
pp. 295-314
Author(s):  
Jon Ketcham ◽  
Arlington W. Williams
Keyword(s):  
Double Auction ◽  
Posted Offer ◽  
Auction Pricing

Tax Incidence

2017 ◽  
Vol 46 (6) ◽  
pp. 899-925 ◽  
Author(s):  
James C. Cox ◽  
Mark Rider ◽  
Astha Sen
Keyword(s):  
Economic Theory ◽  
Laboratory Experiments ◽  
Tax Incidence ◽  
Double Auction ◽  
Market Institutions ◽  
Unit Tax ◽  
Demand And Supply ◽  
Report Data ◽  
Posted Offer

According to economic theory, the incidence of a unit tax is independent of the statutory assignment of the liability to pay the tax. However, the theory is silent on the possible effects of market institutions on tax incidence. We report data from an experiment designed to address two questions. Is tax incidence independent of the assignment of the liability to pay tax to sellers or to buyers? Is tax incidence independent of market institutions? We conduct laboratory experiments with double auction (DA) and posted offer (PO) markets. Based on the results of nonparametric and parametric tests of prices generated by laboratory markets, we conclude that the answer to both questions is “no.” We report that observed differences from liability-side equivalence are statistically significant and economically meaningful. We also report that the incidence of the same tax differs between DA and PO markets with the same demand and supply schedules.

Galactic orbits of stars

1966 ◽  
Vol 25 ◽  
pp. 93-97
Author(s):  
Richard Woolley
Keyword(s):  
Globular Cluster ◽  
Potential Field ◽  
High Velocity ◽  
Velocity Vector ◽  
Variable Stars ◽  
The Sun ◽  
Proper Motions ◽  
Rr Lyrae ◽  
The Galaxy

It is now possible to determine proper motions of high-velocity objects in such a way as to obtain with some accuracy the velocity vector relevant to the Sun. If a potential field of the Galaxy is assumed, one can compute an actual orbit. A determination of the velocity of the globular clusterωCentauri has recently been completed at Greenwich, and it is found that the orbit is strongly retrograde in the Galaxy. Similar calculations may be made, though with less certainty, in the case of RR Lyrae variable stars.

Distance to SN 1987A and the LMC

1999 ◽  
Vol 190 ◽  
pp. 549-554
Author(s):  
Nino Panagia
Keyword(s):  
Angular Size ◽  
Large Magellanic Cloud ◽  
Magellanic Cloud ◽  
Light Curves ◽  
Distance Modulus ◽  
Absolute Size ◽  
Sn 1987A

Using the new reductions of the IUE light curves by Sonneborn et al. (1997) and an extensive set of HST images of SN 1987A we have repeated and improved Panagia et al. (1991) analysis to obtain a better determination of the distance to the supernova. In this way we have derived an absolute size of the ringRabs= (6.23 ± 0.08) x 1017cm and an angular sizeR″ = 808 ± 17 mas, which give a distance to the supernovad(SN1987A) = 51.4 ± 1.2 kpc and a distance modulusm–M(SN1987A) = 18.55 ± 0.05. Allowing for a displacement of SN 1987A position relative to the LMC center, the distance to the barycenter of the Large Magellanic Cloud is also estimated to bed(LMC) = 52.0±1.3 kpc, which corresponds to a distance modulus ofm–M(LMC) = 18.58±0.05.

International determination of the total motion of the pole

1961 ◽  
Vol 13 ◽  
pp. 29-41
Author(s):  
Wm. Markowitz
Keyword(s):  
Secular Motion ◽  
The Future

A symposium on the future of the International Latitude Service (I. L. S.) is to be held in Helsinki in July 1960. My report for the symposium consists of two parts. Part I, denoded (Mk I) was published [1] earlier in 1960 under the title “Latitude and Longitude, and the Secular Motion of the Pole”. Part II is the present paper, denoded (Mk II).

Time and Latitude in South Africa

1972 ◽  
Vol 1 ◽  
pp. 27-38
Author(s):  
J. Hers
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Cape Town ◽  
Astronomical Observations ◽  
Royal Observatory ◽  
The Republic ◽  
Astronomical Determination ◽  
Limited Accuracy ◽  
Better Than

In South Africa the modern outlook towards time may be said to have started in 1948. Both the two major observatories, The Royal Observatory in Cape Town and the Union Observatory (now known as the Republic Observatory) in Johannesburg had, of course, been involved in the astronomical determination of time almost from their inception, and the Johannesburg Observatory has been responsible for the official time of South Africa since 1908. However the pendulum clocks then in use could not be relied on to provide an accuracy better than about 1/10 second, which was of the same order as that of the astronomical observations. It is doubtful if much use was made of even this limited accuracy outside the two observatories, and although there may – occasionally have been a demand for more accurate time, it was certainly not voiced.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document