scholarly journals Reading between the Lines: Using Media to Improve German Inflation Forecasts

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Benjamin Beckers
Keyword(s):  
Inflation Forecasts ◽  
German Inflation

What’s Behind Firms’ Inflation Forecasts?

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cristina Conflitti ◽  
Roberta Zizza
Keyword(s):  
Inflation Forecasts

scholarly journals German forecasters’ narratives: How informative are German business cycle forecast reports?

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Karsten Müller
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Predictive Power ◽  
Recursive Estimation ◽  
Regression Methods ◽  
Inflation Forecasts ◽  
Fixed Effects Panel Regression ◽  
Weak Evidence ◽  
Out Of Sample ◽  
Different Characteristics

AbstractBased on German business cycle forecast reports covering 10 German institutions for the period 1993–2017, the paper analyses the information content of German forecasters’ narratives for German business cycle forecasts. The paper applies textual analysis to convert qualitative text data into quantitative sentiment indices. First, a sentiment analysis utilizes dictionary methods and text regression methods, using recursive estimation. Next, the paper analyses the different characteristics of sentiments. In a third step, sentiment indices are used to test the efficiency of numerical forecasts. Using 12-month-ahead fixed horizon forecasts, fixed-effects panel regression results suggest some informational content of sentiment indices for growth and inflation forecasts. Finally, a forecasting exercise analyses the predictive power of sentiment indices for GDP growth and inflation. The results suggest weak evidence, at best, for in-sample and out-of-sample predictive power of the sentiment indices.

scholarly journals Inflation forecasts and forecaster herding: Evidence from South African survey data

2016 ◽  
Vol 62 ◽  
pp. 42-50 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christian Pierdzioch ◽  
Monique B. Reid ◽  
Rangan Gupta
Keyword(s):  
South African ◽  
Survey Data ◽  
Inflation Forecasts

Growth and inflation forecasts for Germany a panel-based assessment of accuracy and efficiency

2006 ◽  
Vol 31 (3) ◽  
pp. 777-798 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jörg Döpke ◽  
Ulrich Fritsche
Keyword(s):  
Inflation Forecasts

scholarly journals The Reliability of Inflation Forecasts Based on Output Gap Estimates in Real Time

2004 ◽  
Author(s):  
Simon van Norden ◽  
Athanasios Orphanides
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Output Gap ◽  
Inflation Forecasts

scholarly journals Quintessential α-attractor inflation: forecasts for Stage IV galaxy surveys

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 (04) ◽  
pp. 006
Author(s):  
Yashar Akrami ◽  
Santiago Casas ◽  
Senwen Deng ◽  
Valeri Vardanyan
Keyword(s):  
Stage Iv ◽  
Galaxy Surveys ◽  
Inflation Forecasts

scholarly journals Can inflation forecast and monetary policy path be really useful? The case of the Czech Republic

Equilibrium ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Magdalena Szyszko ◽  
Karolina Tura
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Qualitative Analysis ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Quantitative Methods ◽  
Inflation Expectations ◽  
The Czech Republic ◽  
Inflation Forecasts ◽  
National Bank ◽  
Parametric Statistics

Producing and revealing inflation forecast is believed to be the best way of implementing a forward-looking monetary policy. The article focuses on inflation forecast targeting (IFT) at the Czech National Bank (CNB) in terms of its efficiency in shaping consumers’ inflation expectations. The goal of the study is to verify the accuracy of the inflation forecasts, and their influence on inflation expectations. The research is divided into four stages. At the first stage, central bank credibility is examined. At the second stage – accuracy of the inflation forecasts. The next step of the research covers a qualitative analysis of IFT implementation. Finally, the existence of the interdependences of inflation forecast, optimal policy paths and inflation expectations is analyzed. Credibility of the central bank, accuracy of the forecast and decision-making procedures focused on the forecast are the premises for the existence of relationship between forecasts and expectations. The research covers the period from July 2002 – till the end of 2013. Its methodology includes qualitative analysis of decision-making of the CNB, quantitative methods (Kia and Patron formula, MAE forecasts errors, quantification of expectations, non-parametric statistics). The results confirm the existence of interdependences between inflation forecasts and expectations of moderate strength. The preconditions of such interdependences are partially fulfilled. The research opens the field for cross-country comparisons and for quantification of IFT implementation.

scholarly journals What Has Publishing Inflation Forecasts Accomplished? Central Banks and Their Competitors

2019 ◽  
pp. 736-778 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pierre L. Siklos
Keyword(s):  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Output Gap ◽  
Great Moderation ◽  
Confidence Set ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Inflation Forecasts ◽  
Advanced Economies ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Model Confidence Set

This chapter explores short-term sources of inflation forecast disagreement in nine advanced economies. Domestic versus global factors among other determinants are considered. The chapter also adapts an idea from the model confidence set approach to obtain a quasi-confidence interval for inflation forecast disagreement. Some forecasters may change their outlook, especially when data are frequently revised (e.g., the output gap). This extension is also considered. Estimates of disagreement are found to be sensitive to the chosen benchmark, and central banks need not always be the benchmark of choice. The range of forecast disagreement can be high even when levels of disagreement are low. There is little evidence that forecasts are strongly coordinated with those of the central bank. Finally, at least over the period considered, which covers the end of the Great Moderation and the global financial crisis, there is consistent evidence that global factors impact forecast disagreement.

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