scholarly journals German forecasters’ narratives: How informative are German business cycle forecast reports?

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Karsten Müller
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Predictive Power ◽  
Recursive Estimation ◽  
Regression Methods ◽  
Inflation Forecasts ◽  
Fixed Effects Panel Regression ◽  
Weak Evidence ◽  
Out Of Sample ◽  
Different Characteristics

AbstractBased on German business cycle forecast reports covering 10 German institutions for the period 1993–2017, the paper analyses the information content of German forecasters’ narratives for German business cycle forecasts. The paper applies textual analysis to convert qualitative text data into quantitative sentiment indices. First, a sentiment analysis utilizes dictionary methods and text regression methods, using recursive estimation. Next, the paper analyses the different characteristics of sentiments. In a third step, sentiment indices are used to test the efficiency of numerical forecasts. Using 12-month-ahead fixed horizon forecasts, fixed-effects panel regression results suggest some informational content of sentiment indices for growth and inflation forecasts. Finally, a forecasting exercise analyses the predictive power of sentiment indices for GDP growth and inflation. The results suggest weak evidence, at best, for in-sample and out-of-sample predictive power of the sentiment indices.

scholarly journals Forecasting Macedonian Business Cycle Turning Points Using Qual Var Model

2016 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 61-78
Author(s):  
Magdalena Petrovska ◽  
Aneta Krstevska ◽  
Nikola Naumovski
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Predictive Power ◽  
Turning Points ◽  
Probit Model ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Var Model ◽  
Leading Indicators ◽  
Out Of Sample ◽  
The Business Cycle

Abstract This paper aims at assessing the usefulness of leading indicators in business cycle research and forecast. Initially we test the predictive power of the economic sentiment indicator (ESI) within a static probit model as a leading indicator, commonly perceived to be able to provide a reliable summary of the current economic conditions. We further proceed analyzing how well an extended set of indicators performs in forecasting turning points of the Macedonian business cycle by employing the Qual VAR approach of Dueker (2005). In continuation, we evaluate the quality of the selected indicators in pseudo-out-of-sample context. The results show that the use of survey-based indicators as a complement to macroeconomic data work satisfactory well in capturing the business cycle developments in Macedonia.

Leading Indicators of German Business Cycles. An Assessment of Properties / Frühindikatoren der deutschen Konjunktur. Eine Beurteilung ihrer Eigenschaften

2002 ◽  
Vol 222 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ulrich Fritsche ◽  
Sabine Stephan
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Predictive Power ◽  
Frequency Domain Analysis ◽  
Leading Indicators ◽  
Reference Series ◽  
Out Of Sample ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
German Data

SummaryA reliable leading indicator should possess the following properties: (1) The movements in the indicator series should resemble those in the business cycle reference series. (2) The relation between the reference series and the indicator should be statistically significant and stable over time. (3) The inclusion of the indicator in out-of-sample forecasting procedures should improve the predictive power. Our analysis deals with tests for these requirements applied to German data. We used frequency domain analysis, different Granger-causality tests and out-of sample forecasts. Only few indicators passed all tests. Their inclusion into VAR-based forecasts improves the forecast in the very short run. Further research should concentrate on the unsolved problem of the prediction of business cycle turning points.

Measuring multidimensional investment opportunity sets with 10-K text

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sudipta Basu ◽  
Xinjie Ma ◽  
Hoa Briscoe-Tran
Keyword(s):  
Information Technology ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Predictive Power ◽  
Investment Opportunity ◽  
Corporate Policies ◽  
Related Variation ◽  
Opportunity Sets ◽  
Dependent Variables ◽  
Out Of Sample ◽  
Specific Factors

We show that firms' investment opportunity sets (IOS) are multidimensional. Analyzing Form 10-K texts, we identify 445 unique keywords that predict firms' future investments during 1995-2009 and combine them into 43 underlying factors. Industry-specific factors include BioPharma, Banking, Information Technology, Oil & Gas and Retail Stores, while more general factors include Equity Intensity, Debt Intensity, Lease, Going Concern and Acquisition. These factors form our multidimensional measures of IOS. They outperform Tobin's Q and/or industry fixed effects, in predicting future out-of-sample (2010-15) investments and related corporate policies, and even inform incrementally over lagged dependent variables. We trace the factors' improved predictive power to their multidimensional nature, which captures IOS-related variation within and between industries, and stability in IOS that allows 10-K texts to be more informative.

scholarly journals Mediating distributive politics: political alignment and electoral business cycle effects on municipality financing in Greece

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anastasios Kitsos ◽  
Antonios Proestakis
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Central Government ◽  
Intergovernmental Transfers ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
National Elections ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Resource Misallocation ◽  
Run Up ◽  
Political Alignment

AbstractWe examine the role of political alignment and the electoral business cycle on municipality revenues in Greece for the period 2003–2010. The misallocation of resources for political gain represents a waste of resources with significant negative effects on local growth and effective decentralization. The focus of our analysis is municipality mayors since they mediate the relationship between central government and voters and hence can influence the effectiveness of any potential pork-barrelling activity. A novel panel data set combining the results of two local and three national elections with annual municipality budgets is used to run a fixed-effects econometric model. This allows us to identify whether the political alignment between mayors and central government affects municipality financing. We examine this at different stages of local and national electoral cycles, investigating both direct intergovernmental transfers (grants) and the remaining sources of local revenues (own revenues, loans). We find that total revenues are significantly higher for aligned municipalities in the run-up to elections due to higher intergovernmental transfers. We also find evidence that the 2008 crisis has reduced such pork-barrelling activity. This significant resource misallocation increases vertical networking dependency and calls for policy changes promoting greater decentralization and encouraging innovation in local revenue raising.

scholarly journals From Micro to Macro: Exploring Preference-Based Person Centered Care from Multiple Perspectives

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. 836-836
Author(s):  
Katherine Abbott ◽  
Kristine Williams
Keyword(s):  
Nursing Home ◽  
Assisted Living ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Nursing Home Residents ◽  
Direct Care ◽  
Multiple Perspectives ◽  
Person Centered Care ◽  
Fixed Effects Panel Regression ◽  
Centered Care ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Advancing our knowledge related to honoring nursing home resident preferences is a cornerstone of person-centered care (PCC). While there are multiple approaches to providing PCC, we focus on resident preferences as assessed via the Preferences for Everyday Living Inventory (PELI). The PELI is an evidenced-based, validated instrument that can be used to enhance the delivery of PCC. In this symposium, we explore the perspectives of a variety of stakeholders including nursing home residents, staff, and the impact of preference-based care on provider level regulatory outcomes. First, we present a comparative study of preference importance among n=317 African America and White nursing home residents that found more similarities than differences between the two groups. Second, a content analysis of the responses from n=196 interviews with nursing home residents details the barriers and facilitators connected to their levels of satisfaction with their preferences being fulfilled. Third, perspectives from n=27 direct care workers explore the concept of pervasive risk avoidance to the delivery of PCC. Fourth, systems-level practices, such as shift assignments and provider schedules are identified as barriers to successfully fulfilling resident preferences from the perspectives of n=19 staff within assisted living. Our final presentation utilizes a fixed-effects panel regression analysis with n=551 Ohio nursing home providers to explore the impact of PELI use on regulatory outcomes such as substantiated complaints and deficiency scores reported in the CMS Nursing Home Compare data. Discussant Dr. Kristi Williams will integrate findings, highlighting implications for policy, practice, and future directions. Research in Quality of Care Interest Group Sponsored Symposium.

South Africa’s increasing climate variability and its effect on food production

2021 ◽  
pp. 003072702110049
Author(s):  
Mashudu Tshikovhi ◽  
Roscoe Bertrum van Wyk
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Climate Variability ◽  
Food Production ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Mean Annual Temperature ◽  
Fixed Effects Panel Regression ◽  
The Impact

This study examines the impact of increasing climate variability on food production in South Africa, focusing on maize and wheat yields. A two-way fixed effects panel regression model was used to assess the climate variability impacts, analysing secondary data for the period 2000 to 2019 for nine provinces in South Africa. The study found that increasing climate variability has a negative impact on maize and wheat production in South Africa. Specifically, the results indicated a negative correlation between mean annual temperature with both maize and wheat yields. A decrease in precipitation affected maize yields negatively, while the impact on wheat yields was positive, although insignificant. This analysis, therefore, depicted that crop yields generally increase with more annual precipitation and decrease with higher temperatures. The study recommends that funding initiatives to educate farmers on increasing climate variability and its effects on farming activities in South Africa should be prioritised.

Simple correlations for calculating NHTPB enthalpy of formation through molecular structures

2019 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 258-264 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hamid Reza Ghaieni ◽  
Saeed Tavangar ◽  
Mohammad Moein Ebrahimzadeh Qhomi
Keyword(s):  
Enthalpy Of Formation ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Predictive Power ◽  
Cross Validation ◽  
Molecular Structures ◽  
Mean Square ◽  
Mean Square Deviation ◽  
Simple Correlation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Regression Methods

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to present simple correlation for calculating nitrated hydroxyl-terminated polybutadiene (NHTPB) enthalpy of formation. Design/methodology/approach It uses multiple linear regression methods. Findings The proposed correlation has determination coefficient 0.96. The correlation has root mean square deviation and the average absolute deviations values 53.4 and 46.1 respectively. Originality/value The predictive power of correlation is checked by cross-validation method (R2=0.96, Q L O O 2 = 0.96 ).

scholarly journals Measuring Equity through Spatial Variability of Infrastructure Systems across the Urban-Rural Gradient

Land ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (11) ◽  
pp. 1202
Author(s):  
Shrobona Karkun Sen ◽  
Hamil Pearsall ◽  
Victor Hugo Gutierrez-Velez ◽  
Melissa R. Gilbert
Keyword(s):  
Predictive Power ◽  
Spatial Regression ◽  
Spatial Relationship ◽  
Socioeconomic Indicators ◽  
Infrastructure Systems ◽  
Regression Methods ◽  
Complex Interactions ◽  
Spatial Inequalities ◽  
Access To Health ◽  
Urban Rural

Recent regional research has taken an ‘infrastructure turn’ where scholars have called for examining the transformative ability of different infrastructures in causing systemic inequities beyond the spatial conception of ‘urban and the other’. This research examines the interconnected impact of infrastructure systems on existing spatial inequities through a study in metropolitan Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. This study investigates whether the urban-rural (U-R) gradient concept can enhance understanding of the spatial relationship between socioeconomic indicators and infrastructure systems. Indicators of spatial inequalities were regressed against infrastructure variables and imperviousness, as a proxy for the U-R gradient, using multivariate and spatial regression methods. The models show that imperviousness has a positive correlation with the concentration of racialized minorities and a negative correlation with access to health insurance. The study also shows that the predictive power of multiple infrastructures varies across space and does not adhere to urban boundaries or the U-R gradient. The complex interactions among different infrastructures shape inequities and require further inquiry in urban regions around the world.

scholarly journals Spatial income inequality in Toronto: a longitudinal study

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Candace Safonovs
Keyword(s):  
Income Inequality ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Spillover Effects ◽  
Spatial Inequality ◽  
Income Segregation ◽  
Inequality Measures ◽  
Housing Characteristics ◽  
Fixed Effects Panel Regression ◽  
Macro Scale ◽  
Housing Regulation

This paper examines the trends and changes in both spatial and non-spatial income inequality in the Toronto CMA between 1985 and 2015 at various geographic scales, including both within and between neighbourhoods. Fixed effects panel regression models are used to uncover which local demographic and housing characteristics are most significant in explaining changes in inequality within neighbourhoods over time. Findings indicate that macro-scale income segregation among neighbourhoods has declined, while micro-scale intra-neighbourhood income segregation has increased since 1985. Further, compared to overall changes in income inequality in the region, neighbourhoods have become more homogenous in terms of their household income distribution. Thus, neighbourhood sorting by households based on income has increased since 1985. Consistent with extant literature, local housing characteristics have spillover effects on income segregation. Specifically, variables associated with greater housing affluence are negatively correlated with intra-neighbourhood inequality measures, and thus positively correlated with income homogenization. This confirms and adds to the literature that local land use regulations impact income spatial inequality. KEYWORDS Spatial Income Inequality; Segregation; Neighbourhoods; Toronto CMA; Fixed Effects Models; Quantitative Analysis; GIS; Housing Regulation

scholarly journals Is X-ray Exposure Related to Dentist Remuneration?

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olivier Kalmus ◽  
Martin Chalkley ◽  
Stefan Listl
Keyword(s):  
Health Care Providers ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Adult Population ◽  
Common Source ◽  
Fee For Service ◽  
X Rays ◽  
Care Providers ◽  
X Ray ◽  
Fixed Effects Panel Regression ◽  
Provider Payment

Abstract Background: In many market settings individuals are encouraged to switch health care providers as a means of ensuring more competition. Switching may have a potentially undesirable side effect of increasing unnecessary treatment. Focusing on the most common source of medical radiation (dental X-rays), the purpose of this study was to assess whether, upon switching dentist, X-ray exposure increases depending on the type of provider payment. Methods: The analysis used longitudinal data from 2005 to 2016 covering a 5% random sample of the Scottish adult population covered by the National Health Service (NHS). Multiple fixed-effects panel regression analyses were employed to determine the correlation of provider remuneration with patients' likelihood of receiving an X-ray upon switching to a new dentist other things equal. A broad set of covariates including a patient’s copayment status was controlled for. Results: Upon switching to a dentist who was paid fee-for-service, patients had a by 9.6 %-points (95% CI: 7.4%-11.8%) higher probability of receiving an X-ray, compared to switching to a salaried dentist. Results were robust when accounting for patient exemption status, as well as unobserved patient and dentist characteristics. Conclusions: In comparison to staying with the same dentist, patients may be exposed to substantially more X-rays upon switching to a dentist who is paid fee-for-service. There may need to be better guidance and regulation to protect the health of those who have to switch provider due to moving and greater caution in advocating voluntary switching.

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