How Accurate are the Imf's Short-Term Forecasts? Another Examination of the World Economic Outlook

1996 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael J. Artis
Keyword(s):  
Short Term ◽  
The World ◽  
World Economic ◽  
Economic Outlook

Competitiveness of dried sector: A case study of world and Turkey

2020 ◽  
Vol 66 (No. 8) ◽  
pp. 365-372
Author(s):  
Tunahan Erdem
Keyword(s):  
Agricultural Products ◽  
The Other ◽  
Local Currency ◽  
Political Crises ◽  
The World ◽  
World Economic ◽  
World Economic Crisis ◽  
Specific Country ◽  
Economic Outlook

The study aimed to reveal the competitiveness of the world dried sector for some selected products such as dried apples, prunes, apricots, figs, and grapes. In the study, the data was subjected to the Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA), Relative Export Advantage (RXA), Relative Import Advantage (RMA), Relative Trade Advantage (RTA) and Relative Competitiveness (RC) indices. RCA is an index developed by Balassa to determine the competitiveness of a specific country for selected products or goods. To demonstrate the economic outlook for the world dried sector, the 2007 to 2017 data of China, USA, Chile, Germany, Iran, the Netherlands, South Africa, France, Uzbekistan, Argentina, Spain, Turkey, and India were compared, these countries dominating the sector of selected dried agricultural products. The results demonstrated that the world dried sector is very responsive to economic crises and to local currency rate. The RCA index was found to be 4.66 in 2007 for Turkey and it decreased to 4.45 by 2009 during the world economic crisis. The other breaking point was 2013 when Turkey experienced both economic and political crises.

scholarly journals An Evaluation of the World Economic Outlook Forecasts

2006 ◽  
Vol 06 (59) ◽  
pp. 1 ◽  
Author(s):  
Allan Timmermann ◽  
Keyword(s):  
The World ◽  
World Economic ◽  
Economic Outlook

scholarly journals The Great Depression analogy

2010 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 127-140 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Bordo ◽  
Harold James
Keyword(s):  
Economic Theory ◽  
Great Depression ◽  
Rapid Decline ◽  
Human History ◽  
Industrial Activity ◽  
The Great Depression ◽  
The World ◽  
Bank Of England ◽  
World Economic ◽  
Economic Outlook

In the discussion of our contemporary economic disease, the Great Depression analogy refuses to go away. Almost every policy-maker referred to conditions that had ‘not been seen since the Great Depression’, even before the failure of Lehman. Some even went further – the Deputy Governor of the Bank of England notably called the crisis the worst ‘financial crisis in human history’. In its April 2009 World Economic Outlook, the IMF looked explicitly at the analogy not only in the collapse of financial confidence, but also in the rapid decline of trade and industrial activity across the world. In general, history rather than economic theory seems to offer a guide in interpreting wildly surprising and inherently unpredictable events. Some observers, notably Paul Krugman, have concluded that a Dark Age of macroeconomics has set in.

Mexico's weak GDP growth will outlast Pena Nieto

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Latin American ◽  
Economic Reforms ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Severe Problem ◽  
Content Type ◽  
World Economic ◽  
The Government ◽  
Latin American Countries ◽  
Economic Outlook

Subject GDP growth shows no sign of improving in the short-term. Significance In its most recent update to its World Economic Outlook, the IMF lowered its forecast for Mexico's 2016 GDP growth to 2.4% from 2.6% foreseen in January. This figure compares well with other Latin American countries -- notably Brazil and Venezuela -- yet it marks the continuation of a trend of meagre expansion that has characterised President Enrique Pena Nieto's time in office despite his efforts to introduce economic reforms. Impacts Further reform to encourage greater flexibility in the labour market will be key to increasing small business productivity. Low growth and a lack of prospects for the young will feed into Mexico's rising crime rates. The lack of growth could become a severe problem for the government both directly and indirectly in the 2018 election.

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