<p>Recent insights into breast cancer incidence trends among four Asian countries using age-period-cohort model</p>

Objective Fluctuations in the incidence of breast cancer in Norway in the last three decades are partly explained by the use of hormone replacement therapy and mammography screening, but overdiagnosis has also been suggested as a cause. We assessed the trends in breast cancer incidence and overdiagnosis in Norway. Methods We calibrated our microsimulation model to Norwegian Cancer Registration data. The model takes into account the use of mammography (both within and outside the Norwegian Breast Cancer Screening Programme) and of hormone replacement therapy. We obtained a proper fit of breast cancer incidence in recent years, when assuming an increase in the background risk for breast cancer, and estimated overdiagnosis. Results We estimated a 2% overdiagnosis rate as a fraction of all cancers diagnosed in women aged 50–100, and a 3% overdiagnosis rate as a fraction of all cancers diagnosed in women aged 50–70 (i.e. screening age). If all of the increased incidence would be the result of the detection of slow growing tumours, these estimates were 7% and 11%, respectively. Conclusion Besides mammography and hormone replacement therapy use, additional risk factors contributed to the sudden increase in breast cancer incidence in Norway. Overdiagnosis estimates due to screening were within the range of international plausible estimates.

Download Full-text

Comparison of quadrant-specific breast cancer incidence trends in the United States and England between 1975 and 2013

Cancer Epidemiology ◽

10.1016/j.canep.2016.08.019 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 44 ◽

pp. 186-194 ◽

Cited By ~ 5

Author(s):

C.J. Bright ◽

D.W. Rea ◽

A. Francis ◽

R.G. Feltbower

Keyword(s):

Breast Cancer ◽

United States ◽

Cancer Incidence ◽

Breast Cancer Incidence ◽

The United States ◽

Incidence Trends

Download Full-text

Absence of sustained breast cancer incidence inflation in a national mammography screening programme

Journal of Medical Screening ◽

10.1177/0969141318775766 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 26 (1) ◽

pp. 26-34 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Stephen Morrell ◽

Marli Gregory ◽

Kerry Sexton ◽

Jessica Wharton ◽

Nisha Sharma ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Breast Cancer ◽

New Zealand ◽

Cancer Incidence ◽

Invasive Breast Cancer ◽

Mammography Screening ◽

Screening Programme ◽

Breast Cancer Incidence ◽

Age Groups ◽

Incidence Trends ◽

The Impact

Objective To investigate the impact of population mammography screening on breast cancer incidence trends in New Zealand. Methods Trends in age-specific rates of invasive breast cancer incidence (1994–2014) were assessed in relation to screening in women aged 50–64 from 1999 and 45–69 following the programme age extension in mid-2004. Results Breast cancer incidence increased significantly by 18% in women aged 50–64 compared with 1994–98 (p<0.0001), coinciding with the 1999 introduction of mammography screening, and remained elevated for four years, before declining to pre-screening levels. Increases over 1994–99 incidence occurred in the 45–49 (21%) and 65–69 (19%) age groups following the 2004 age extension (p<0.0001). Following establishment of screening (2006–10), elevated incidence in the screening target age groups was compensated for by lower incidence in the post-screening ⩾70 age groups than in 1994–98. Incidence in women aged ⩾45 was not significantly higher (+5%) after 2006 than in 1994–98. The cumulated risk of breast cancer in women aged 45–84 for 1994–98 was 10.7% compared with 10.8% in 2006–10. Conclusions Increases in breast cancer incidence following introduction of mammography screening in women aged 50–64 did not persist. Incidence inflation also occurred after introduction of screening for age groups 45–49 and 65–69. The cumulated incidence for women aged 45–84 over 2006–10 after screening was well established, compared with 1994–98 prior to screening, shows no increase in diagnosis. Over-diagnosis is not inevitable in population mammography screening programmes.

Download Full-text

Trends in Leading Cancer Incidence among Iranian Women: Annual Cancer Registry Reports, 2003-2015

Iranian Journal of Public Health ◽

10.18502/ijph.v50i8.6818 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Razieh Bidhendi-Yarandi ◽

Mohammad Hossein Panahi

Keyword(s):

Breast Cancer ◽

Cancer Registry ◽

Cancer Incidence ◽

Breast Cancer Incidence ◽

Iranian Women ◽

Annual Percent Change ◽

National Cancer Registry ◽

Incidence Trends ◽

History Of ◽

Increasing Trends

Background: Cancer is one of the most important causes of death in the world and has an increasing trend globally. We aimed at investigating the five leading cancers in Iranian women based on a 10-year history of cancer registry reports and illustrating the trends in all cancer sites and breast cancer as the top leading one from 2003 to 2015. Methods: Data were obtained from national cancer registry study. Age-Specific Incidence Rate (ASR) data were obtained from Iran’s annual national cancer registry reports between 2003 to 2010 and 2014 to 2015. Using Joinpoint regression, we analyzed incidence trends over time for all cancer sites and the top leading cancer from 2003 to 2015. Results: Breast cancer was ranked first in Iranian women. Its ASR raised from 15.96 in 2003 to 32.63 in 2015. Results of trend analysis based on Annual Percent Change (APC) index showed 5.6 (95%CI: 2.9 to 8.3) and 4.6 (95%CI: 2.0 to 7.2) annual increase in the incidence of all cancer sites and breast cancer from 2003 to 2015, respectively. Conclusion: This study indicates significant increasing trends in all cancer sites and breast cancer incidence in Iran. Despite the national coverage of cancer registry over the past decade, more considerations should be taken into account, especially in Breast cancer.

Download Full-text

Clustering 46 Asian countries according to the trend of breast cancer incidence rate from 1990- 2016: An application of growth mixture model

10.21203/rs.3.rs-15596/v1 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Fariba Azadikhah ◽

Kamran Mehrabani ◽

Hadi Raeisi Shahraki

Keyword(s):

Breast Cancer ◽

Incidence Rate ◽

Mixture Model ◽

Cancer Incidence ◽

Breast Cancer Incidence ◽

Asian Countries ◽

Cancer Incidence Rate ◽

Growth Mixture Model ◽

Growth Mixture ◽

Cluster 2

Abstract Breast cancer among Asian countries is the second cause of cancer death and remains as a challenging issue in woman health as 39% of all new cases of breast cancer have been diagnosed in Asia. The current study was devoted to recognize different patterns of breast cancer incidence rate among Asian countries. Information about the incidence rates of female breast cancer within 1990-2016 years was extracted from Gapminder web site and growth mixture model was developed to describe the growth patterns and provide a set of tools to investigate the individual differences in change. Our findings suggest an overall increasing trend throughout the continent, but individual trajectories show different behaviors among countries. Bayesian information creation showed that 3-cluster model was the best. Cluster one countries including: Bangladesh, Israel, Kyrgyz republic, Maldives, Nepal, North Korea, Tajikistan and Timor-Leste, the slope of -0.13 suggests a slight negative trend for the incidence rate of breast cancer. 17 countries including: Armenia, Bahrain, Brunei, Cyprus, Iraq, Japan, Jordan, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Malaysia, Pakistan, Philippines, Qatar, Singapore, South Korea, United Arab Emirate which belongs to cluster 2, had not only a high intercept that means higher amounts of incidence rate in 1990 year, but also a slope of 0.96, indicating a sharp increase trajectory. Also slope of 0.38 showed a slow increase in the incidence rate of breast cancer over time for another 21 countries. In conclusion, increase of breast cancer incidence among cluster 2 countries is tremendous therefore effective strategies for prevention are urgently needed.

Download Full-text