Age, Pulse, Urea and Albumin (APUA) Model: A Tool for Predicting in-Hospital Mortality of Community-Acquired Pneumonia Adapted for Patients with Type 2 Diabetes

Abstract Background The present study was performed to investigate the impacts of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) on severe community-acquired pneumonia (SCAP) and to develop a novel prediction model for mortality in SCAP patients with T2DM. Methods This was a retrospective observational study conducted in consecutive adult patients with SCAP admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) of West China Hospital, Sichuan University, China, between September 2011 and September 2019. The primary outcome was hospital mortality. A propensity score matching (PSM) analysis model with a 1:2 ratio was used for the comparisons of clinical characteristics and outcomes between T2DM and nondiabetic patients. The independent risk factors were identified via univariate and then multivariable logistic regression analysis and were then used to establish a nomogram. Results In total, 1262 SCAP patients with T2DM and 2524 matched patients without T2DM were included after PSM. Patients with T2DM had longer ICU length of stay (LOS) (13 vs. 12 days, P = 0.016) and higher 14-day mortality (15% vs. 10.8%, P < 0.001), 30-day mortality (25.7% vs. 22.7%, P = 0.046), ICU mortality (30.8% vs. 26.5%, P = 0.005), and hospital mortality (35.2% vs. 31.0%, P = 0.009) than those without T2DM. In SCAP patients with T2DM, the independent risk factors for hospital mortality were increased numbers of comorbidities and diabetes-related complications; elevated C-reactive protein (CRP), neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR), brain natriuretic peptide (BNP) and blood lactate; as well as decreased blood pressure on admission. The nomogram had a C index of 0.907 (95% CI: 0.888, 0.927) in the training set and 0.873 (95% CI: 0.836, 0.911) in the testing set, which was superior to the pneumonia severity index (PSI, AUC: 0.809, 95% CI: 0.785, 0.833). The calibration curve and decision curve analysis (DCA) also demonstrated its accuracy and applicability. Conclusions SCAP patients with T2DM had worse clinical outcomes than nondiabetic patients. The nomogram has good predictive performance for hospital mortality and might be generally applied after more external validations.

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Validation of Tokyo Guidelines 2007 and Tokyo Guidelines 2013/2018 Criteria for Acute Cholangitis and Predictors of In-Hospital Mortality

Visceral Medicine ◽

10.1159/000516424 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 1-9

Author(s):

Ramkumar Mohan ◽

Stefanie Wei Lynn Goh ◽

Guan Wei Tan ◽

Yen Pin Tan ◽

Sameer P. Junnarkar ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Diabetes Mellitus ◽

Blood Pressure ◽

Type 2 Diabetes ◽

Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus ◽

Hospital Mortality ◽

Diagnostic Criteria ◽

Glasgow Coma Score ◽

Acute Cholangitis ◽

Tokyo Guidelines

Background: Acute cholangitis (AC) is a common emergency with a significant mortality risk. The Tokyo Guidelines (TG) provide recommendations for diagnosis, severity stratification, and management of AC. However, validation of the TG remains poor. This study aims to validate TG07, TG13, and TG18 criteria and identify predictors of in-hospital mortality in patients with AC. Methods: This is a retrospective audit of patients with a discharge diagnosis of AC in the year 2016. Demographic, clinical, investigation, management and mortality data were documented. We performed a multinomial logistic regression analysis with stepwise variable selection to identify severity predictors for in-hospital mortality. Results: Two hundred sixty-two patients with a median age of 75.9 years (IQR 64.8–82.8) years were included for analysis. TG13/TG18 diagnostic criteria were more sensitive than TG07 diagnostic criteria (85.1 vs. 75.2%; p < 0.006). The majority of the patients (n = 178; 67.9%) presented with abdominal pain, pyrexia (n = 156; 59.5%), and vomiting (n = 123; 46.9%). Blood cultures were positive in 95 (36.3%) patients, and 79 (83.2%) patients had monomicrobial growth. The 30-day, 90-day, and in-hospital mortality numbers were 3 (1.1%), 11 (4.2%), and 15 (5.7%), respectively. In multivariate analysis, type 2 diabetes mellitus (OR = 12.531; 95% CI 0.354–116.015; p = 0.026), systolic blood pressure <100 mm Hg (OR = 10.108; 95% CI 1.094–93.395; p = 0.041), Glasgow coma score <15 (OR = 38.16; 95% CI 1.804–807.191; p = 0.019), and malignancy (OR = 14.135; 95% CI 1.017–196.394; p = 0.049) predicted in-hospital mortality. Conclusion: TG13/18 diagnostic criteria are more sensitive than TG07 diagnostic criteria. Type 2 diabetes mellitus, systolic blood pressure <100 mm Hg, Glasgow coma score <15, and malignant etiology predict in-hospital mortality in patients with AC. These predictors could be considered in acute stratification and treatment of patients with AC.

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Development and validation of prediction models for the risks of diabetes-related hospitalization and in-hospital mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes

Metabolism ◽

10.1016/j.metabol.2018.02.003 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 85 ◽

pp. 38-47 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

Tsai-Chung Li ◽

Chia-Ing Li ◽

Chiu-Shong Liu ◽

Wen-Yuan Lin ◽

Chih-Hsueh Lin ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Type 2 Diabetes ◽

Hospital Mortality ◽

Prediction Models ◽

Development And Validation

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Incidence and outcomes of hospitalization for community-acquired, ventilator-associated and non-ventilator hospital-acquired pneumonias in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus in Spain

BMJ Open Diabetes Research & Care ◽

10.1136/bmjdrc-2020-001447 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 8 (1) ◽

pp. e001447

Author(s):

Ana Lopez-de-Andres ◽

Romana Albadalejo-Vicente ◽

Javier de Miguel-Diez ◽

Valentin Hernandez-Barrera ◽

Zichen Ji ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Diabetes Mellitus ◽

Type 2 Diabetes ◽

Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus ◽

Incidence Rates ◽

Community Acquired Pneumonia ◽

Older Age ◽

Hospital Acquired Pneumonia ◽

Design And Methods ◽

Hospital Acquired

IntroductionTo describe the incidence and compare in-hospital outcomes of community-acquired pneumonia (CAP), ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP) and non-ventilator hospital-acquired pneumonia (NV-HAP) among patients with or without type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) using propensity score matching.Research design and methodsThis was a retrospective observational epidemiological study using the 2016–2017 Spanish Hospital Discharge Records.ResultsOf 245 221 admissions, CAP was identified in 227 524 (27.67% with T2DM), VAP was identified in 2752 (18.31% with T2DM) and NV-HAP was identified in 14 945 (25.75% with T2DM). The incidence of pneumonia was higher among patients with T2DM (CAP: incidence rate ratio (IRR) 1.44, 95% CI 1.42 to 1.45; VAP: IRR 1.24, 95% CI 1.12 to 1.37 and NV-HAP: IRR 1.38, 95% CI 1.33 to 1.44). In-hospital mortality (IHM) for CAP was 12.74% in patients with T2DM and 14.16% in matched controls (p<0.001); in patients with VAP and NV-HAP, IHM was not significantly different between those with and without T2DM (43.65% vs 41.87%, p=0.567, and 29.02% vs 29.75%, p=0.484, respectively). Among patients with T2DM, older age and dialysis were factors associated with IHM for all types of pneumonia. In patients with VAP, the risk of IHM was higher in females (OR 1.95, 95% CI 1.28 to 2.96).ConclusionThe incidence rates of all types of pneumonia were higher in patients with T2DM. Higher mortality rates in patients with T2DM with any type of pneumonia were associated with older age, comorbidities and dialysis.

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