scholarly journals Calendar anomalies in the Ukrainian stock market

2017 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 104-114 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guglielmo Maria Caporale ◽  
Alex Plastun
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Simulation Analysis ◽  
January Effect ◽  
Year Effect ◽  
Average Analysis ◽  
Day Of The Week ◽  
Calendar Anomalies ◽  
Student’S T ◽  
Trading Simulation ◽  
Halloween Effect

This paper is a comprehensive investigation of calendar anomalies in the Ukrainian stock market. It employs various statistical techniques (average analysis, Student’s t-test, ANOVA, the Kruskal-Wallis test, and regression analysis with dummy variables) and a trading simulation approach to test for the presence of the following anomalies: day-of-the-week effect; turn-of-the-month effect; turn-of-the-year effect; month-of-the-year effect; January effect; holiday effect; Halloween effect. The results suggest that in general calendar anomalies are not present in the Ukrainian stock market, but there are a few exceptions, i.e. the turn-of-the-year and Halloween effect for the PFTS index, and the month-of-the-year effect for UX futures. However, the trading simulation analysis shows that only trading strategies based on the turn-of-the-year effect for the PFTS index and the month-of-the-year effect for the UX futures can generate exploitable profit opportunities that can be interpreted as evidence against market efficiency.

scholarly journals January effect: 200 years of evolution in the us stock market

2018 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 27-33
Author(s):  
Alex Plastun ◽  
Vyacheslav Plastun
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
January Effect ◽  
Simulation Approach ◽  
Comprehensive Investigation ◽  
Average Analysis ◽  
The Us ◽  
Student’S T ◽  
Xix Century ◽  
Trading Simulation ◽  
Student’S T Test

This paper is a comprehensive investigation of the January Effect evolution in the US stock market over the period 1791–2015. It employs various statistical techniques (average analysis, Student’s t-test, ANOVA, Mann-Whitney test) and a trading simulation approach to analyze the evolution of this anomaly. The results suggest that January effect during the XVIII–XXI century passed the way from rise to fall. The rise of the January Effect starts in the end of the XIX century and this anomaly mostly disappeared in middle of the XX century. Nowadays the January Effect is not present in the US stock market, but even today January stays one of the best months for purchases in the US stock market.

scholarly journals The Disappearing Calendar Anomalies in the Singapore Stock Market

2006 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 123-139 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wing-Keung Wong ◽  
Aman Agarwal ◽  
Nee-Tat Wong
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Efficient Market Hypothesis ◽  
Stock Index ◽  
January Effect ◽  
Trading Behavior ◽  
Recent Period ◽  
Efficient Market ◽  
Day Of The Week ◽  
Calendar Anomalies ◽  
Stock Index Returns

This paper investigates the calendar anomalies in the Singapore stock market over the recent period from 1993-2005. Specifically, changes in stock index returns are examined surrounding January (the January effect), on different days of the week (the day-of-the-week effect), around the turn of the month (the turn-of-the-month effect) and before holidays (the pre-holiday effect). The findings reveal that these anomalies have largely disappeared from the Singapore stock market in recent years. The disappearance of these anomalies has important implications for the efficient market hypothesis and the trading behavior of investors.

scholarly journals Exploring price gap anomaly in the Ukrainian stock market

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 150-158 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alex Plastun ◽  
Inna Makarenko ◽  
Lyudmila Khomutenko ◽  
Svitlana Shcherbak ◽  
Olha Tryfonova
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Market Efficiency ◽  
Statistical Tests ◽  
Efficient Market Hypothesis ◽  
Trading Strategy ◽  
Momentum Effect ◽  
Dummy Variables ◽  
Price Patterns ◽  
Student’S T ◽  
Trading Simulation

This paper analyzes price gaps in the Ukrainian stock market for the case of UX index over the period 2009–2018. Using different statistical tests (Student’s t-tests, ANOVA, Mann-Whitney test) and regression analysis with dummy variables, as well as modified cumulative approach and trading simulation, the authors test a number of hypotheses searching for price patterns and abnormal market behavior related to price gaps: there is seasonality in price gaps (H1); price gaps generate statistical anomalies in the Ukrainian stock market (H2); upward gaps generate price patterns in the Ukrainian stock market (H3) and downward gaps generate price patterns in the Ukrainian stock market (H4). Overall results are consistent with the Efficient Market Hypothesis: there is no seasonality in price gaps and in most cases there is no evidences of price patterns or abnormal price behavior after the gaps in the Ukrainian stock market. Nevertheless, the authors find very strong and convincing evidences in favor of momentum effect on the days of negative gaps. These observations are confirmed by trading simulations: trading strategy based on detected price pattern generates profits and demonstrates overall efficiency, which is against the market efficiency. These results can be interesting both for academicians (further evidences against market efficiency) and practitioners (real and effective trading strategy to generate profits in the Ukrainian market market).

Does the financial crisis influence the month and the trading month effects?

2015 ◽  
Vol 32 (2) ◽  
pp. 181-203 ◽  
Author(s):  
Evangelos Vasileiou ◽  
Aristeidis Samitas
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Methodological Approach ◽  
Investment Strategy ◽  
January Effect ◽  
Research Approach ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Calendar Effects ◽  
Empirical Results ◽  
Financial Growth ◽  
Calendar Anomalies

Purpose – This paper aims to examine the month and the trading month effects under changing financial trends. The Greek stock market was chosen to implement the authors' assumptions because during the period 2002-2012, there were clear and long-term periods of financial growth and recession. Thus, the authors examine whether the financial trends influence not only the Greek stock market’s returns, but also its anomalies. Design/methodology/approach – Daily financial data from the Athens Exchange General Index for the period 2002-2012 are used. The sample is separated into two sub-periods: the financial growth sub-period (2002-2007), and the financial recession sub-period (2008-2012). Several linear and non-linear models were applied to find which is the most appropriate, and the results suggested that the T-GARCH model better fits the sample. Findings – The empirical results show that changing economic and financial conditions influence the calendar effects. The trading month effect, especially, completely changes in each fortnight following the financial trend. Regarding the January effect, which is the most popular month effect, the results confirm its existence during the growth period, but during the recession period, we find that it fades. Therefore, by examining the aforementioned calendar effects in different periods, different conclusions may be reached, perhaps because the financial trends’ influence is ignored. Research limitations/implications – The empirical results confirm the authors' assumption that a possible explanation for the controversial empirical findings regarding the calendar anomalies may be the different financial trends. However, these are some primary results that are confirmed only for the Greek case. Further empirical research for deeper stock markets and/or a group of countries may be useful to reach conclusions regarding the financial trends’ influence on the calendar anomalies patterns. Practical implications – The findings are helpful to anyone who invests and deals with the Greek stock market. Moreover, they may pave the way for an alternative calendar anomalies research approach, proving useful for investors who take these anomalies into account when they plan their investment strategy. Originality/value – This paper contributes to the literature by presenting an alternative methodological approach regarding the calendar anomalies study and a new explanation for the calendar effects existence/fade through time by examining the calendar anomalies patterns under a changing economic environment and financial trends.

IS THERE A FRIDAY EFFECT IN FINANCIAL MARKETS?

2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 38-59
Author(s):  
Guglielmo Maria Caporale ◽  
Alex Plastun
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Commodity Markets ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Gold Market ◽  
Average Analysis ◽  
Day Of The Week ◽  
Student’S T ◽  
Abnormal Profits ◽  
Student’S T Test

This paper tests for the presence of the Friday effect in various financial markets (stock markets, FOREX, and commodity markets) by using a number of statistical techniques (average analysis, parametric tests such as Student's t-test and ANOVA analysis, non-parametric ones such as the Kruskal-Wallis test, regression analysis with dummy variables). The evidence suggests that stock markets are immune to Friday effects, whilst in the FOREX Fridays exhibit higher volatility, and in the Gold market returns are higher on this day of the week. Using a trading robot approach we show that the latter anomaly can be exploited to make abnormal profits. 

scholarly journals The Month-of-the-Year Effect in the European, American, Australian and Asian Markets

Economies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 168
Author(s):  
Gualter Couto ◽  
Pedro Pimentel ◽  
Catarina Barbosa ◽  
Rui Alexandre Castanho
Keyword(s):  
Linear Regression ◽  
Statistical Significance ◽  
Statistical Evidence ◽  
Excess Return ◽  
January Effect ◽  
European American ◽  
Average Return ◽  
Year Effect ◽  
Halloween Effect

This paper examines the existence of the month-of-the-year effects in four different continents, namely Europe, Asia, America, and Oceania. Nine indexes were analyzed in order to verify differences between monthly returns from January 1990 to December 2013, followed by an examination of the January effect, Halloween effect, and the October effect, testing for statistical significance using an OLS linear regression in order to verify whether those effects offer consistent opportunities for investors. Investors with globally diversified portfolios benefit from the Halloween effect, with a 1.2% average monthly excess return in winter and spring, while the pre-dotcom-bubble period had a better performance than the post-dotcom-bubble period. In the global post-dotcom-bubble period, there is statistical evidence for 1.60% and 1% lower average monthly returns in January (the January effect) and in months other than October (the October effect), respectively, contradicting the literature. The dotcom bubble seems to be responsible for the January effect differing from what might otherwise have been expected in the later period. There is no consistent and clear impact on continental incidence. The Halloween effect is revealed to be a fruitful strategy in the FTSE, DAX, Dow Jones, BOVESPA, and N225 indexes taken one-by-one. The January effect excess average return was only statistically significative for the pre-dotcom-bubble period for globally diversified portfolios. This paper contributes to a wider global and comparable view upon month-of-the-year effect.

An examination of calendar anomalies: evidence from the Thai stock market

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Rattaphon Wuthisatian
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
January Effect ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Current State ◽  
Managerial Implications ◽  
Monthly Pattern ◽  
Calendar Anomalies ◽  
Daily Stock Returns

PurposeThe study examines the existence of calendar anomalies, including the day-of-the-week (DOW) effect and the January effect, in the Stock Exchange of Thailand.Design/methodology/approachUsing daily stock returns from March 2014 to March 2019, the study performs regression analysis to examine predictable patterns in stock returns, the DOW effect and the January effect, respectively.FindingsThere is strong evidence of a persistent monthly pattern and weekday seasonality in the Thai stock market. Specifically, Monday returns are negative and significantly lower than the returns on other trading days of the week, and January returns are positive and significantly higher than the returns on other months of the year.Practical implicationsThe findings offer managerial implications for investors seeking trading strategies to maximize the possibility of reaching investment goals and inform policymakers regarding the current state of the Thai stock market.Originality/valueFirst, the study investigates calendar anomalies in the Thai stock market, specifically the DOW effect and the January effect, which have received relatively little attention in the literature. Second, this is the first study to examine calendar anomalies in the Thai stock market across different groups of companies and stock trading characteristics using a range of composite indexes. Furthermore, the study uses data during the period 2014–2019, which should provide up-to-date information on the patterns of stock returns in Thailand.

scholarly journals The weekend effect: an exploitable anomaly in the Ukrainian stock market?

2016 ◽  
Vol 43 (6) ◽  
pp. 954-965 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guglielmo Maria Caporale ◽  
Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana ◽  
Alex Plastun
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Fractional Integration ◽  
Weekend Effect ◽  
Statistical Techniques ◽  
Simulation Approach ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Dummy Variables ◽  
Average Analysis ◽  
Trading Simulation

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to provide some new empirical evidence on the weekend effect (one of the best known anomalies in financial markets) in Ukrainian futures prices. The analysis uses various statistical techniques. Design/methodology/approach The analysis uses various statistical techniques (average analysis, Student’s t-test, dummy variables, and fractional integration) to test for the presence of this anomaly, and then a trading simulation approach to establish whether it can be exploited to make extra profits. Findings The statistical evidence points to abnormal positive returns on Fridays, and a trading strategy based on this anomaly is shown to generate annual profits of up to 25 per cent. The implication is that the Ukrainian stock market is inefficient. Originality/value This paper provides some new empirical evidence on the weekend effect (one of the best known anomalies in financial markets) in Ukrainian futures prices. The analysis uses various statistical techniques (average analysis, Student’s t-test, dummy variables, and fractional integration) to test for the presence of this anomaly, and then a trading simulation approach to establish whether it can be exploited to make extra profits. The statistical evidence points to abnormal positive returns on Fridays, and a trading strategy based on this anomaly is shown to generate annual profits of up to 25 per cent. The implication is that the Ukrainian stock market is inefficient.

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