Dynamics of tax revenues in the budget of Ukraine and their forecast during the crisis period

It is extremely important for the budget process to obtain accurate forecasts of potential tax revenues, especially in periods of disruption and crisis. The paper is devoted to the study of dynamics of tax revenues’ volumes in the budget of Ukraine and the forecast of their values during the crisis.The dynamics of tax revenues in the Consolidated Budget of Ukraine, studied by using randomized R|S-analysis, fractal and probabilistic analyses as well as entropy calculation based on the data on monthly tax revenues for the period 2011–2021, is anti-persistent, fractal-like and unpredictable based on parametric dependencies, simple and complex trends. The topological dimension of the lines of dynamics for tax revenues of all types of taxes is much higher than 1, and the Hirst index indicates either fractal similarity of dynamics or its chaos. The map of dissipation periods of tax revenues in Ukraine, determined on the basis of entropy calculation and periods of negative entropy production according to the dynamics of tax revenues, coincided with the periods of maximum reduction in their volumes. The most crisis periods in the formation of tax revenues are 2019–2020, for certain types of taxes – 2016–2020, but the dissipation of tax revenues is projected for 2021–2022.The comparison of the level of fractal similarity in dynamics of the volume of tax revenues and peculiarities of the dynamics of entropy and entropy production, allowed to substantiate the division of taxes into nine types, of which five were found in Ukraine.

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APPLICATION OF THE PRINCIPLES OF GENDER EQUALITY IN THE PLANNING OF BUDGET EXPENDITURE AND INCOME IN UKRAINE

Black Sea Economic Studies ◽

10.32843/bses.64-22 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Iryna Pryimak ◽

Iryna Muntian

Keyword(s):

Financial Management ◽

Budget Process ◽

Internally Displaced ◽

Tax Revenues ◽

Budget Analysis ◽

Budget Policy ◽

Financial Management System ◽

Local Budget ◽

And Gender ◽

The Impact

The article clarifies the essence and benefits of gender-oriented budgeting. The problem of lack of legislative consolidation of the use of GOB in the budget process is considered, which is one of the main reasons for slowing down the process of implementation of this method and approval of methods for its implementation. Indicators of gender statistics, in particular the city of Lviv, such as the structure of the permanent population by gender, unemployment rate by age and gender, mortality rates by cause and gender, social groups of internally displaced persons (IDPs) and the problems they most often face depending on gender are analyzed. It was found that the situation of women in most areas is worse than men, and in modern conditions during the pandemic situation only gets worse. Given recent world events, the need for a public financial management system that takes into account the impact of gender measures to overcome the coronavirus pandemic is justified. A correlation analysis of gender impact on tax revenues of budgets on the basis of indicators that directly affect tax revenues to budgets by gender such as the average monthly wages of women and men in Ukraine for the period 2012-2019, as well as the number of women and men PE and their income for the period 2016 - 2020 has been conducted. The reasons for the reported results of the analysis are substantiated and explained, taking into account all possible factors. It is clear how the closure of “sleeping” private enterpreneurs, which has been observed since 2016, has affected the indicator of the total number of private enterpreneurs and their income indicators, which directly affect tax revenues to local budgets. The influence of these indicators on the formation of revenue and expenditure components of the budget based on the results of their statistical and correlation analyzes is estimated. The article confirms the opinion that the results of gender budget analysis help to make decisions on the directions of budget policy and development of industries in the future, taking into account the needs of men and women from different groups. As a result, it makes it possible to eliminate inequality in access to services financed from the local budget in the indicated areas.

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