Using the W&H integrated uncertainty analysis framework with non-initiated experts

The W&H (Walker and Harremoës) integrated uncertainty analysis framework was put forward with the aim of providing a conceptual basis for the systematic treatment of uncertainty in model-based decision support activities such as policy analysis, integrated assessment and risk assessment. It provides a heuristic tool that can be applied in decision support exercises to classify and report the various dimensions of uncertainty. The intention is to stimulate better communication among analysts as well as between them and policymakers and stakeholders. The framework successfully articulates diverse scholarly understandings of ‘uncertainty’, ‘ignorance’, and ‘quality’ in science for policy. Nevertheless, experience with the W&H framework has revealed that many of the concepts put forward are relatively unfamiliar – and perhaps somewhat controversial – to experts practising decision support. Thus, efforts are required to communicate the W&H framework to experts in such a way that their knowledge of uncertainty is elicited adequately, without them being overly intimidated or confused by the novelty of the concepts presented to them. After introducing the W&H conceptual framework, this paper presents the methodology that was used in applying the W&H framework in expert elicitations on uncertainty in the risk assessment of genetically modified crops. Experiences with the use of this methodology are discussed and recommendations for further improvement are given.