Patient Triage by Topic Modeling of Referral Letters: Feasibility Study

Background Musculoskeletal conditions are managed within primary care, but patients can be referred to secondary care if a specialist opinion is required. The ever-increasing demand for health care resources emphasizes the need to streamline care pathways with the ultimate aim of ensuring that patients receive timely and optimal care. Information contained in referral letters underpins the referral decision-making process but is yet to be explored systematically for the purposes of treatment prioritization for musculoskeletal conditions. Objective This study aims to explore the feasibility of using natural language processing and machine learning to automate the triage of patients with musculoskeletal conditions by analyzing information from referral letters. Specifically, we aim to determine whether referral letters can be automatically assorted into latent topics that are clinically relevant, that is, considered relevant when prescribing treatments. Here, clinical relevance is assessed by posing 2 research questions. Can latent topics be used to automatically predict treatment? Can clinicians interpret latent topics as cohorts of patients who share common characteristics or experiences such as medical history, demographics, and possible treatments? Methods We used latent Dirichlet allocation to model each referral letter as a finite mixture over an underlying set of topics and model each topic as an infinite mixture over an underlying set of topic probabilities. The topic model was evaluated in the context of automating patient triage. Given a set of treatment outcomes, a binary classifier was trained for each outcome using previously extracted topics as the input features of the machine learning algorithm. In addition, a qualitative evaluation was performed to assess the human interpretability of topics. Results The prediction accuracy of binary classifiers outperformed the stratified random classifier by a large margin, indicating that topic modeling could be used to predict the treatment, thus effectively supporting patient triage. The qualitative evaluation confirmed the high clinical interpretability of the topic model. Conclusions The results established the feasibility of using natural language processing and machine learning to automate triage of patients with knee or hip pain by analyzing information from their referral letters.