Assessment of performance of the machine learning-based breast cancer risk prediction model: a systematic review and meta-analysis (Preprint)

BACKGROUND Background: Machine learning algorithms well-suited in cancer research, especially in breast cancer for the investigation and development of riTo assess the performance of available machine learning-based breast cancer risk prediction model. OBJECTIVE Objective: To assess the performance of available machine learning-based breast cancer risk prediction model. METHODS Methods: As of June 9, 2021, articles on breast cancer risk prediction models by machine learning were searched in PubMed, Embase, and Web of Science. Studies describing the development or validation of risk prediction models for predicting future breast cancer risk were included. Pooled area under the curve (AUC) were calculated using the DerSimonian and Laird random-effects model. RESULTS Result: A total of 8 studies with 10 datasets were included. Neural network was the most common machine learning method for the development of risk prediction models. The pooled AUC of machine learning-based optimal risk prediction model reported in each study was 0.73 (95%CI: 0.66-0.80), which was higher than that of traditional risk factor-based risk prediction models (all Pheterogeneity < 0.001). The pooled AUC of neural network-based risk prediction model was higher than that of non-neural network-based optimal risk prediction model (0.71 vs. 0.68). Subgroup analysis showed that incorporation of imaging features risk models had a higher pooled AUC than model of non-incorporation of imaging features (0.73 vs. 0.61; Pheterogeneity =0.001). CONCLUSIONS Conclusions: The pooled machine learning-based breast cancer risk prediction model yield a good prediction performance and promising results.