FLOOD RISK ANALYSIS BY HISTORICAL LANDUSE CHANGE IN THE KUROKAWA RIVER BASIN, ASO

Author(s):  
Daisuke YAMASHITA ◽  
Tomoko MINAGAWA ◽  
Hiroki ASADA
Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (7) ◽  
pp. 1365 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cai ◽  
Zhu ◽  
Peng ◽  
Wang ◽  
Fan

To quantify the flood risks in cascade dam systems, it is critical to analyze the risk factors and potential breaking failure paths. In this study, Bayesian networks (BNs) were applied to create a flood risk analysis model for a cascade dam system. Expert experiment, historical data, and computational formulas were employed to estimate the prior probability and original conditional probability tables (CPTs) in the BN model; sensitivity analysis was used to ensure the original continuous breaking failure path in the system. To avoid the possible misperceptions of the probability of a certain event, Dam Breach Analysis Model (DB-IWHR) 2014 software and the flood regulation method were used to simulate the dam breaking progress. The posteriori continuous breaking failure paths were obtained, and then the original CPTs were refined based on the new evidence. The proposed method was applied to the Bala-Busigou-Shuangjiangkou (BL-BSG-SJK), which is located upstream of the Dadu River basin in China. The results show that three continuous breaking failure paths could be identified in the researched cascade dam system. A new BN model was created to determine the failure probability of the cascade dam system under the three continuous breaking failure paths. This analytical method may also be useful for other similar cases.


2006 ◽  
Vol 20 (6) ◽  
pp. 1365-1384 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dushmanta Dutta ◽  
Srikantha Herath ◽  
Katumi Musiake

2012 ◽  
Vol 105 ◽  
pp. 64-72 ◽  
Author(s):  
F.L.M. Diermanse ◽  
C.P.M. Geerse

Author(s):  
Niloy Pramanick ◽  
Rituparna Acharyya ◽  
Sandip Mukherjee ◽  
Sudipta Mukherjee ◽  
Indrajit Pal ◽  
...  

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document