A Subseasonal Regime Approach for Assessing Intra-annual Variability of Evapotranspiration and Application to the Upper Colorado River Basin

Evapotranspiration (ET) is strongly influenced by gradual climate change and fluctuations in meteorological conditions, such as earlier snowmelt and occurrence of droughts. While numerous studies have investigated how climate change influences the inter-annual variability of ET, very few studies focused on quantifying how subseasonal events control the intra-variability of ET. In this study, we developed the concept of subseasonal regimes, whose timing and duration are determined statistically using Hidden Markov Models (HMM) based on meteorological conditions. We tested the value of subseasonal regimes for quantitatively characterizing the variability of seasonal and subseasonal events, including the onset of snow accumulation, snowmelt, growing season, monsoon, and defoliation. We examined how ET varied as a function of the timing of these events within a year and across six watersheds in the region. Variability of annual ET across these six sites is much less significant than the variability in hydroclimate attributes at the sites. Subseasonal ET, defined as the total ET during a given subseasonal regime, provides a measure of intra-annual variability of ET. Our study suggests that snowmelt and monsoon timing influence regime transitions and duration, such as earlier snowmelt can increase springtime ET rapidly but can trigger long-lasting fore-summer drought conditions that lead to decrease subseasonal ET. Overall, our approach provides an enhanced statistically based framework for quantifying how the timing of subseasonal-event transitions influence ET variability. The improved understanding of subseasonal ET variability is important for predicting the future impact of climate change on water resources from the Upper Colorado River Basin regions.

A new species of eyeless Lymantes Schoenherr (Coleoptera: Curculionidae: Molytinae: Lymantini) from Texas caves

A new eyeless cave-inhabiting species of the weevil genus Lymantes Schoenherr (Coleoptera: Curculionidae: Molytinae: Lymantini) is described. Lymantes reddelli Anderson, new species, occurs in caves in Bexar and Travis Counties, Texas, United States of America. The new species is very similar to Lymantes nadineae Anderson but is found in caves south of the Colorado River whereas L. nadineae is only known from caves north of the Colorado River. Characters of external morphology and male genitalia to separate the species are given.

Using the Change Point Model (CPM) Framework to Identify Windows for Water Resource Management Action in the Lower Colorado River Basin of Texas, USA

In water-stressed river basins with growing urban populations, conflicts over water resources have emerged between urban and agricultural interests, as managerial interventions occur with little warning and tend to favor urban over agricultural water uses. This research documents changes in water use along an urban-to-agricultural gradient to examine whether it is possible to leverage temporal fluctuations in key quantitative data indicators to detect periods in which we could expect substantive managerial interventions in water resource management. We employ the change point model (CPM) framework to locate shifts in water use, climate-related indicators, lake and river characteristics, and agricultural trends across urban and agricultural counties in the lower Colorado River basin of Texas. Three distinctive groupings of change points appear. Increasing water use by urban counties and a shift in local climate conditions characterize the first period. Declines in agricultural counties’ water use and crop production define the second. Drops in lake levels, lower river discharge, and an extended drought mark the third. We interpret the results relative to documented managerial intervention events and show that managerial interventions occur during and after significant change points. We conclude that the CPM framework may be used to monitor the optimal timing of managerial interventions and their effects to avoid negative outcomes.

Green Light for Adaptive Policies on the Colorado River

The Colorado River is a critical source of water supply for 40 million people in nine states spanning two nations in western North America. Overallocated in the 20th century, its problems have been compounded by climate change in the 21st century. We review the basin’s hydrologic and water management history in order to identify opportunities for adaptive governance to respond to the challenge of reduced system flows and distill the ingredients of past successes. While significant advances have been made in the first two decades of the 21st century, these past actions have not been sufficient to halt the declines in the basin’s reservoirs. We find that the mix of federal, state, and local responsibility creates challenges for adaptation but that progress can be made through a combination of detailed policy option development followed by quick action at hydrologically driven moments of opportunity. The role of directives and deadlines from federal authorities in facilitating difficult compromises is noted. The current state of dramatically decreased overall flows has opened a window of opportunity for the adoption of water management actions that move the river system toward sustainability. Specific measures, based on the existing institutional framework and on policy proposals that have circulated within the Colorado River community, are suggested.

Early Pliocene Marine Transgression into the Lower Colorado River Valley, Southwestern USA, by Re-Flooding of a Former Tidal Strait

Marine straits and seaways are known to host a wide range of sedimentary processes and products, but the role of marine connections in the development of large river systems remains little studied. This study explores a hypothesis that shallow marine waters flooded the lower Colorado River valley at ∼ 5 Ma along a fault-controlled former tidal straight, soon after the river was first integrated to the northern Gulf of California. The upper bioclastic member of the southern Bouse Formation provides a critical test of this hypothesis. The upper bioclastic member contains wave ripple-laminated bioclastic grainstone with minor red mudstone, pebbly grainstone with HCS-like stratification and symmetrical gravelly ripples, and calcareous-matrix conglomerate. Fossils include upward-branching segmented coralline-like red algae with no known modern relatives but confirmed as marine calcareous algae, echinoid spines, barnacles, shallow marine foraminifers, clams, and serpulid worm tubes. These results provide evidence for deposition in a shallow marine bay or estuary seaward of the transgressive backstepping Colorado River delta. Tsunamis generated by seismic and meteorologic sources likely produced the HCS-like and wave-ripple cross-bedding in poorly-sorted gravelly grainstone. Marine waters inundated a former tidal strait within a fault-bounded tectonic lowland that connected the lower Colorado River to the Gulf of California. Delta backstepping and transgression resulted from a decrease in sediment output due to sediment trapping in upstream basins and relative sea-level rise produced by regional tectonic subsidence.Supplementary material at https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.c.5740426

Resilient Organizations for River Restoration: The Case of Two Colorado River Sub-Basin Recovery Programs

This study characterizes the resilience of organizations undertaking river basin governance and recovery. The Upper Colorado River Endangered Fish Recovery Program (UCREFRP) and the Lower Colorado River Multi-Species Conservation Program (LCR-MSCP) are defined in this study as polycentric organizations nested within larger institutional mechanisms governing the Colorado River Basin. This study utilizes an environmental disturbance-organizational response framework to characterize organizational resilience—and uses attitudinal diversity (characterized by attitudes toward agendas) as the measurable metric. Environmental disturbances are defined as either press or pulse and categorized as either institutional or biophysical in nature. Four types of attitudinal diversity metrics are utilized—supportive, clarifying, conditional, and critical. Results indicate that institutional press and pulse events generated anticipatory resilience capabilities along with some adaptive capabilities for the organizations. However, the biophysical press and pulse events only reveal coping capabilities and very little adaptive capabilities. With the recent Colorado River shortage declaration, it is critical for the programs to build anticipatory as well as adaptive capabilities for optimal response to biophysical press events.