Effects of Macroeconomic Variables on Regional Housing Prices Using Bayesian Panel VAR Model

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (6) ◽  
pp. 1349-1362
Author(s):  
Haejung Chun
2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mustafa Tuğan

Summary In the literature, a common feature of panel models with interactive fixed effects is that they model a univariate variable. In this regard, they are incapable of addressing dynamic and simultaneous interactions among a set of macroeconomic variables, a problem that falls within the realm of structural analysis. This paper aims to contribute to the existing literature by studying a homogeneous panel vector autoregression (VAR) model with interactive fixed effects. The panel VAR model in question is flexible in that it can accommodate an arbitrary lag length and observable regressors that can be individual-specific or common. For factor VAR models with both a large cross-section (C) and a large time (T) dimension, we derive the limiting distribution of the interactive fixed estimator, allowing structural analysis to be extended to panel VAR models with interactive fixed effects.


2020 ◽  
Vol 42 (1) ◽  
pp. 21-38
Author(s):  
Saysi Sayaseng

AbstractEvidence from the global financial crisis (2007–2008) and the Asian financial crisis (1997) have taught policymakers valuable lessons. The contagious effects of these crises have proven unavoidable and have led to negative economic development. However, South Korea, unlike other countries, has recovered remarkably from both episodes of financial turmoil and proved their ability to maintain positive growth throughout the two periods. This study investigates the correlation between the evolution of South Korean banking and corporate sector before, during and after these crises. A VAR model was employed to test the effectiveness of the South Korean government's policies, in response to the financial crisis from 1997 to 2017, using macroeconomic variables as proxies for newly introduced policies, and non-performing loans for controlled risks. The empirical results indicate impulse response functions which suggest that changes in macroeconomic variables as a representation for the policies resulted in a reduction of non-performing loans. This implies successful risk reduction and an overall economic recovery.


2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
Charles W. Calomiris ◽  
Stanley D. Longhofer ◽  
William Miles
Keyword(s):  

2021 ◽  
Vol 251 ◽  
pp. 01105
Author(s):  
Lina Tao

In order to cope with the complex and severe development situation at home and abroad, in May 2020, the Party Central Committee proposed to accelerate the formation of a new development pattern with the domestic cycle as the main body and the mutual promotion of the domestic and international double cycles. Among them, the consumption of Chinese residents is a “double cycle” key part of strategy. From the perspective of consumption structure and property structure, real estate is an important part of household property and an important consumer object in China and it has a decisive influence on the effect of internal circulation. By constructing a real estate wealth effect model, this paper adopted the impulse response function method based on the VAR model, studies the changes in real estate prices, residents’ incomes, and residents’ consumption. The results show that the three interact with each other. In the long run, real estate has a positive wealth effect, but in the short term, there is a negative wealth effect, and consumers’ expectations of future housing prices will affect current consumption changes. In order to promote the domestic cycle, the author proposes to develop and improve the primary and secondary housing markets to ensure the liquidity of real estate, thereby stimulating consumption; guide residents to form healthy real estate price expectations, prevent large fluctuations in housing prices, and strictly stabilize consumption; the policy positioning of “no speculation” reduces the crowding-out effect of investment and speculative house purchases on residents’ daily consumption, thereby increasing consumption.


2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 285-298
Author(s):  
Costas Siriopoulos ◽  
Argyro Svingou ◽  
Jagadish Dandu

Although the coronavirus pandemic hit Europe in the early days of 2020, European stock markets had signaled fluctuations in the days before. This paper assesses the observed volatility on European stock exchanges and searches for its sources during the first four months of 2020. To investigate the issue, a panel VAR model is adopted, and the generalized impulse response function and the variance decomposition methods are used. The estimations show that about 34% of the volatility in European stock markets is due to the Chinese stock market, while 7% is due to international uncertainty, as measured by VIX. The impact of pandemic cases and deaths on European stock markets is negligible, below 1%. This means that the European stock market faced two risk elements: the first is the transmission volatility from the Chinese stock market, and the second is the international uncertainty. The findings also support the view that COVID-19 is more like a systematic risk.


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