scholarly journals An empirical nexus between poverty and unemployment on economic growth

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 85-94
Author(s):  
KEJI Sunday Anderu
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Poverty Rate ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Lm Test ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Government

The study examines the empirical nexus between poverty and unemployment on economic growth in Nigeria between 1980 and 2016. Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL), Bound cointegration testing, and Error Correction Methods (ECM) were used to investigate the link between unemployment, poverty rate, and economic growth in Nigeria. Post estimation tests such as the Jarque-Bera test, Breusch-Pagan, ARCH test, and Ramsey reset test were also adopted in order to validate the research finding. The diagnostic tests further disclosed that the estimated model follows the Ordinary Least Square technique assumptions to attain efficiency and consistency of the model employed. The Jarque-Bera test suggests that residuals for both models are normally distributed, and the Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation (LM) test indicates that the hypothesis of no autocorrelation cannot be rejected. Interestingly, the ARDL and ECM results show that unemployment and poverty significantly impact economic growth both in the short and long run. Hence, the study recommended that the Nigeria government should ensure that adequate measures are put in place: Such as investment in education, agricultural sector reform, expansionary fiscal policy, intervention in micro-lending for small scale businesses by the government should be implemented to reduce the level of unemployment and poverty rate both in the short run and long run.

scholarly journals Long-run and short-run responses of agricultural sector growth to its determinants in Nigeria

Agro-Science ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
pp. 46-50
Author(s):  
H.S. Umar ◽  
S.I. Audu ◽  
C.N. Okoye
Keyword(s):  
Serial Correlation ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Capital Expenditure ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Step Test ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Structural Dynamic ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Lm Test ◽  
Short Run

The study examined the long-run and short-run responses of agricultural sector growth to its determinants in Nigeria using time series data (1981 2015). Dynamic Ordinary Least Square (DOLS) method was employed in the analysis of the data. Jarque-Bera Normality Test, Breusch-Godfrey serial correlation LM test, Engle Granger 2-Step Test for Co-Integration and CUSUM of Squares Test were used to test for normality, serial correlation and structural dynamic stability of the data. The trend of agricultural sector growth revealed that sustained growth of the sector has been experienced since 2001 up till 2015. The results revealed that agricultural sector growth was positively and significantly influenced by capital expenditure in the sector, which was proxy by Total Government Agricultural Expenditure (TGAE), in the long-run; while in the short-run, the sector growth was positively and significantly influenced by labour employment. It is therefore recommended that for sustained agricultural sector growth and development in the country, increased capital expenditure in the sector should be pursued with sustained vigour. Since agriculture sector shows immediate and significant response to employment, it should be made attractive to youth employment by provision of incentive. This would ensure dual gain of tackling unemployment problem in the country and ensure agricultural sector growth.

LPG consumption and economic growth, 1975-2016: evidence from Cameroon

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jean Gaston Tamba
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Liquefied Petroleum Gas ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Gas Consumption ◽  
The Government ◽  
Energy Efficiency Policies

Purpose This paper aims to examine the causal relationship between liquefied petroleum gas consumption and economic growth in Cameroon over the period from 1975 to 2016. Design/methodology/approach The methodology of this study is based on the unit root, cointegration and causality tests. Cointegration is performed with both Johansen and autoregressive distributed lag bounds approach, while causality is done with the Granger test based on the error correction model (ECM) and Toda-Yamamoto procedure. Findings The cointegration methods confirm the existence of a level relationship, whereas the causal tests of the ECM reveal the existence of a short-run unidirectional causal relationship ranging from liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) consumption to economic growth and a bidirectional causal relationship between long-term and high-causality variables. With the Toda-Yamamoto procedure, unidirectional causality is found to run from economic growth to liquefied petroleum gas consumption. Research limitations/implications These findings imply that an increase in liquefied petroleum gas consumption leads to an increase in economic growth. As a result, supporting energy efficiency policies that aim to reduce liquefied petroleum gas consumption is not an option for Cameroon. Given that LPG consumption shares are still low in Cameroon, the government ought, thus, to increase LPG subsidization, vulgarize and favor policies aimed at encouraging LPG consumption to increase LPG deposits nationwide. This would help increase LPG consumption and consequently could increase economic growth in Cameroon. Originality/value LPG is a fossil fuel and is the less GHG emitter and it is considered as a modern source of energy for cooking in Cameroon households. It scarcity calls on energy policymakers to question the influence LPG consumption could have on economic growth in the short- and long-run. Thus, this paper could contribute to solving the issue of deforestation in Cameroon, especially in the Sahel zone; through the substitution of firewood consumption by LPG consumption in households.

SHORT-RUN AND LONG-RUN IMPACT OF INFLATION, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND ECONOMIC GROWTH TOWARDS POVERTY IN INDONESIA: ARDL APPROACH

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 15
Author(s):  
Ahmadi Murjani
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Poverty Alleviation ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Ardl Approach ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

 Poverty alleviation has become a vigorous program in the world in recent decades. In line with the efforts applied by the government in various countries to reduce poverty, some evaluations have been practised. The impacts of macroeconomic variables such as inflation, unemployment, and economic growth have been commonly employed to be assessed for their impact on the poverty. Previous studies in Indonesia yielded mix results regarding the impact of such macroeconomic variables on the poverty. Different methods and time reference issue were the suspected causes. This paper aims to overcome such problem by utilising the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) equipped with the latest time of observations. This paper finds in the long-run, inflation, unemployment, and economic growth significantly influence the poverty. In the short-run, only inflation and economic growth are noted affecting poverty significantly. 

scholarly journals Dynamics of Financial Development, Economic Growth, and Poverty Alleviation: The Indonesian Experience

2018 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 17-30 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sovia Dewi ◽  
M. Shabri Abd. Majid ◽  
Salina Kassim ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Poverty Reduction ◽  
Financial Sector ◽  
Poverty Rate ◽  
Development Economic ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Government

Abstract Although the poverty rate in Indonesia has been declining in the last several years, the rate of poverty decline is slowing down. In order to achieve its poverty reduction target within the stipulated time period, the government has stepped up efforts to enhance the contribution of the financial sector towards poverty reduction. This study aims to empirically explore the interlinkages between financial sector development and poverty reduction in Indonesia. Focusing on annual data covering the period from 1980 to 2015, the study adopts the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) cointegration approach to examine the long-run relationship between the variables. The study found that there is a long-run relationship between financial development, economic growth, and poverty reduction in Indonesia. It also documented a unidirectional causality running from the financial sector to poverty reduction and a bidirectional causality between economic growth and poverty reduction. Therefore, policies to ensure the conducive growth of the financial sector would go a long way in promoting the economy, creating employment opportunities, and consequently accelerating poverty eradication

scholarly journals Does Monetary Policy Affect Economic Growth in Jordan? Evidence from Ordinary Least Square Models

2018 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 27
Author(s):  
Mohamed Ibrahim Mugableh
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Ordinary Least Square ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

The main objective of this paper is to analyze equilibrium and dynamic causality relationships between monetary policy tools and economic growth in Jordan for the period (1990-2017). For this purpose, it considers the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) and vector error correction (VEC) models estimations. The results of ARDL approach show that monetary policy variables (i.e., real interest rate and money supply) have positive impact on economic growth in long-run and short-run except inflation rate. In addition, the results of VECM indicate bidirectional causal relationships between economic growth and monetary policy variables in long-run and short-run.

Effect of Economic Growth on Unemployment and Validity of Okun’s Law in Mauritius

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 231-250
Author(s):  
Usha Devi Chuttoo
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Okun’S Law ◽  
Okun's Law ◽  
Ordinary Least Square ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Gdp Growth Rate ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Small Economy

This study examines the relationship between unemployment and economic growth in Mauritius. The methodology adopted for this study is the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds cointegration test, ARDL error-correction model (ARDL-ECM) using the ordinary least square (OLS) approach and Okun’s law-gap version. ARDL-ECM estimates the long-run and short-run relationship between economic growth and unemployment. The validity of Okun’s law is tested in the Mauritian context and Okun’s coefficient is thereby estimated. The results obtained from the tests show that both in the long run and short run, there is a negative cointegration between economic growth and unemployment, but it is not statistically significant. Whereas, the result of Okun’s law-gap version shows that Okun’s law is indeed valid in the small economy of Mauritius. From the Okun’s coefficient obtained, it is concluded that 4 percent change in gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate changes unemployment rate by 1 percent in the opposite direction in Mauritius.

scholarly journals FINANCIAL CRISES AND ECONOMIC GROWTH OF NIGERIA

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 13-33
Author(s):  
Ogbebor Peter ◽  
◽  
Awonuga Adesola ◽  
Ezenwa Anthony ◽  
Oamen Gregory ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Financial Crises ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Government

The effects of financial crises on economic growth of countries are destabilizing and research interests in this area in the case of Nigeria has not be sufficiently exhibited, hence, this study. The study examined the effect of financial crises on economic growth in Nigeria using time series data that covered a period from 1986 to 2019. For data analysis, the major empirical tools utilized are Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Co-integration and ECM techniques, following the result of the unit root tests that revealed mixture of I(0) and I(1). The ARDL Co-integration result revealed that long run relationship exists among the selected variables of interest in this study. Furthermore, ECM technique revealed that Financial Crises have negative and significant effect on Economic growth in Nigeria both in the long run and short run. Also, the effect of current value of Inflation was found to be negative and significant in the long run and that of Trade openness was positive and statistically significant in the short run. Also, the study found that there are long run and short run positive and significant impacts of Liberalization on Economic growth. Finally, the findings revealed that the current year values of Money Supply have negative and significant impact on current Economic growth; however, its past value has positive impact. The study concluded that a long-run relationship existed between financial crises and economic growth; specifically, such crises have negative and significant effects on economic growth of Nigeria. The government in general should tinker with the current policy prescription regarding the establishment of financial institutions especially those that cannot qualify for the status of domestically systematically important to avert recurring crises in the financial sector that have impacted the macro-economy negatively.

scholarly journals Impact of Agricultural Credit on Economic Growth in Nigeria

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 ◽  
pp. 511-523
Author(s):  
Mosinmileoluwa Afolabi ◽  
Ochei Ailemen Ikpefan ◽  
Godswill Osagie Osuma ◽  
Grace Evbuomwan
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Easy Access ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Growth Data ◽  
Agricultural Credit ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Development Indicator ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Small Scale Farmers

This study’s aim was to examine the influence of agricultural credit on Nigeria's economic growth for the period of 1981-2017. Data is sourced from Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) statistical bulletin and world development indicator (WDI). The detailed objectives are to analyze the effect of the Agricultural credit guarantee scheme fund (ACGSF) and the deposit money bank credit to agric sector (DMBCA) on Nigeria's Economic Growth. Data was analyzed using the test for stationarity, Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL). ARDL is adopted due to the mixed order of stationarity of the variables at levels and first difference. From the research results, it was established, in the long run, that DMBCA is significant and there exists a direct relationship, only in the short run, and the ACGSF is insignificant both the short and long run but has a direct relation in the short run and an inverse relationship in the long-run. Therefore, it is recommended, that the Federal Government should make coordinated attempts to ensure that farmers especially small-scale farmers have easy access to the financial aids and grants provided and the funds should be disbursed appropriately and adequately without any hitch.

scholarly journals Do Government Revenues Matter for Economic Growth? Evidence from Nigeria

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 60 ◽  
Author(s):  
Isiaka Akande Raifu ◽  
Abiodun Najeem Raheem
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Economic Recession ◽  
Business Environment ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Oil Revenue ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Oil Sector ◽  
The Government

The bursting of crude oil prices in the international market since mid-2014 has resulted in dwindling oil revenue, which has led to economic recession in Nigeria. The recession has further exacerbated existing socioeconomic problems bedeviling the country. In the light of this, we examined the effect of government revenues (oil and non-oil revenues) on economic growth, both in the short-run and the long-run using autoregressive distributed lag method. Our findings show that government revenues are indispensable to economic growth in Nigeria. In addition, we found that economic growth is more responsive to oil revenue than non-oil revenue. Based on our findings, we advocate for effective and efficient use of government revenues. Furthermore, since oil revenue fluctuates more than non-oil revenue, we further advocate for creation of an enabling business environment geared towards improving the contribution of the non-oil sector to the government revenue base.

Fish Exports and Economic Growth: The Pakistan’s Experience

2019 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
pp. 279-296 ◽  
Author(s):  
Syed Tehseen Jawaid ◽  
Mohammad Haris Siddiqui ◽  
Zeeshan Atiq ◽  
Usman Azhar
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Impulse Response Function ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

This study attempts to explore first time ever the relationship between fish exports and economic growth of Pakistan by employing annual time series data for the period 1974–2013. Autoregressive distributed lag and Johansen and Juselius cointegration results confirm the existence of a positive long-run relationship among the variables. Further, the error correction model reveals that no immediate or short-run relationship exists between fish exports and economic growth. Different sensitivity analyses indicate that initial results are robust. Rolling window analysis has been applied to identify the yearly behaviour of fish exports, and it remains negative from 1979 to 1982, 1984 to 1988, 1993 to 1999, 2004 and from 2010 to 2013, and it shows positive impact from 1989 to 1992, 2000 to 2003 and from 2005 to 2009. Furthermore, the variance decomposition method and impulse response function suggest the bidirectional causal relationship between fish exports and economic growth. The findings are beneficial for policymakers in the area of export planning. This study also provides some policy implications in the final section.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document