SHORT-RUN AND LONG-RUN IMPACT OF INFLATION, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND ECONOMIC GROWTH TOWARDS POVERTY IN INDONESIA: ARDL APPROACH

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 15
Author(s):  
Ahmadi Murjani
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Poverty Alleviation ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Ardl Approach ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

 Poverty alleviation has become a vigorous program in the world in recent decades. In line with the efforts applied by the government in various countries to reduce poverty, some evaluations have been practised. The impacts of macroeconomic variables such as inflation, unemployment, and economic growth have been commonly employed to be assessed for their impact on the poverty. Previous studies in Indonesia yielded mix results regarding the impact of such macroeconomic variables on the poverty. Different methods and time reference issue were the suspected causes. This paper aims to overcome such problem by utilising the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) equipped with the latest time of observations. This paper finds in the long-run, inflation, unemployment, and economic growth significantly influence the poverty. In the short-run, only inflation and economic growth are noted affecting poverty significantly. 

On the Evolutionary Interplay Between Remittances, Financial Development, and Economic Growth

2019 ◽  
pp. 78-96
Author(s):  
Ramzi Fahrani ◽  
Azza Béjaoui
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Data Series ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Ardl Approach ◽  
Stable Economy ◽  
Relationship Of ◽  
The Impact

In this chapter, the authors attempt to investigate the interaction between remittances and financial development and its impact on the economic growth over the period 1980-2016. In this respect, they apply the autoregressive distributed lag bound test (ARDL) approach on cross-country of data series from 1980 to 2016 to study the short- and long-run relationship of remittances and financial development with economic growth. The empirical results show that the direct effects of shipments on growth are significant. On the other hand, the impact of remittances on economic seems to be more significant by means of the financial development. It also shows that these shipments are more efficient in the case of a less developed informal sector, a politically stable economy, and a developed financial structure.

scholarly journals A Dynamic Analysis of the Impact of Fiscal Adjustment on Economic Growth: Evidence From Pakistan

SAGE Open ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 215824402110271
Author(s):  
Ibrar Hussain ◽  
Jawad Hussain ◽  
Arshad Ali ◽  
Shabir Ahmad
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Fiscal Adjustment ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Empirical Calibration ◽  
Short Run ◽  
S Model ◽  
The Impact

This study claims to be the first in assessing the short-run and long-run impacts of both the size and composition of fiscal adjustment on the growth in Pakistan. Empirical calibration has been made on Mankiw et al.’s model, while the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) techniques of Pesaran et al. have been employed to carry out the estimation. To cure the problem of degenerate cases, the ARDL techniques have been augmented with the model of Sam et al. The analysis supports the hypothesis of “expansionary fiscal contraction” in the long run. The analysis reveals that the spending-based adjustment enhances the economic growth, whereas the tax-based adjustment would reduce the growth in the long run in the case of Pakistan. The Granger causality test indicates that the fiscal adjustments have been weakly exogenous, thereby allowing feedback effect from the economic growth toward the fiscal adjustment. Thus, the objective of sustained economic growth can be achieved through the spending-based consolidation measures.

scholarly journals The Nexus Among Economic Growth, Inflation and Unemployment in Bhutan

2019 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
pp. 94-105
Author(s):  
Ugyen Tenzin
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Positive Association ◽  
Economic Output ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Employment Elasticity ◽  
The Impact

In order to understand the dynamics of unemployment in Bhutan at a macro-level, this study has explored the association among economic growth, inflation and unemployment from 1998 to 2016. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model was applied to estimate the impact of economic growth and inflation on unemployment. The results of this empirical analysis suggest that economic growth had no impact on the reduction of unemployment rate in Bhutan both in the short and in the long run. In fact, as the economic growth increased, so did the unemployment rate. However, inflation had a negative association with unemployment rate in the short run and a positive association in the long run. In other words, an increase in the employment rate led to an increase in the inflation in the short run. Likewise, if inflation is not monitored or controlled, the uncertainty of inflation can lead to lower investment and lower economic growth, thereby causing unemployment to rise in the long run. This study, therefore, recommends policymakers to take into account the employment elasticity with respect to economic output and focus on sectors, which have more absorptive capacity in engaging the young labour market entrants. JEL: B22, C22, E24, E31

scholarly journals The effect of worker remittances on economic growth: An ARDL approach

2019 ◽  
Vol 30 (4) ◽  
pp. 434-441 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Kamran Khan ◽  
Jian-Zhou Teng ◽  
Muhammad Imran Khan
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Domestic Saving ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Ardl Approach ◽  
Financial Flow ◽  
Short Run

Worker remittances are the main source of financial flow to any economy.  This study intended to scrutinize the effect of remittance inflow on Pakistan’s economy over the period 1976- 2016 by employing autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) technique; because this method has been recently developed and has different advantages as compared to time series methods. ARDL method was applied to scrutinize the long run and the short run effect of worker remittances on Pakistan’s economy. This study concluded that Pakistan’s economy is positively affected by remittance inflow, foreign direct investment and the gross domestic saving in the long run, while Pakistan’s economy negatively affected by inflation and consumption in the long run. Remittances received from immigrant support economic growth in Pakistan because remittances inflow is mostly utilized for investment purpose. To further improve the economic development of Pakistan’s economy, it is suggested that policy maker in Pakistan encourage and motivate migrants to send remittances through proper channels to Pakistan, so that these inflows of remittances be used in such profitable investments that help to improve economic growth.

Determinants of Agricultural Productivity in Ethiopia: ARDL Approach

2018 ◽  
Vol 66 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 365-374
Author(s):  
Aynalem Shita ◽  
Nand Kumar ◽  
Seema Singh
Keyword(s):  
Arable Land ◽  
Agricultural Productivity ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Ardl Approach ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Government ◽  
Alternative Sources

This study analyses factors affecting agricultural productivity in Ethiopia for the period of 1990–2016 by using autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model. Both the bounds test and the error correction model confirmed the existence of co-integration (long-run relationship) between the variables included in the model. The results revealed that cereal productivity is positively influenced by use of fertiliser and real gross domestic product (GDP) both in the long run and in the short run. While size of arable land influences productivity positively in the long run, its short-run effect was found to be negative. Hence, the government and other concerned authorities should work to enhance farmers’ use of improved technologies, such as fertiliser, by ensuring its timely availability at an affordable price, encouraging farmers to participate on alternative sources of income such as off-farm activities and bringing additional area under cereal production to improve agricultural productivity.

scholarly journals The Impact of Output Volatility on CO2 Emissions in Turkey: Testing EKC Hypothesis with Fourier Stationarity Test

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Murat Can Genç ◽  
Aykut Ekinci ◽  
Burchan Sakarya
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Kuznets Curve ◽  
Output Volatility ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Stationarity Test ◽  
The Impact

Abstract This study uses the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) approach to determine the dynamic short- and long-term impacts of the volatility of economic growth (VOL) on carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in Turkey from 1980 to 2016. The results of the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach indicate that there is a long-run relationship between CO2, per capita real GDP, and VOL. The coefficients obtained from the ARDL estimation indicate that economic growth increases CO2 emissions, but VOL decreases CO2 emissions in the long run. However, the coefficients obtained from the ARDL error correction model show that VOL increases CO2 emissions in the short run. We also find that the EKC is valid in Turkey.

scholarly journals The Asymmetric Impact of Oil Price and Electricity Consumption on Economic Growth: Evidence from Nigeria

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 50-70
Author(s):  
Adedayo Emmanuel Longe ◽  
Taiwo Matthew Adekoya ◽  
Caleb Olugbenga Soyemi ◽  
David Adeiza Agbanuji ◽  
Idowu Jacob Adekomi
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Electricity Consumption ◽  
Capital Formation ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Asymmetric Impact ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The study examines the asymmetric impact of oil price and electricity consumption on economic growth in Nigeria between 1981 and 2018 using the Non-Linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model. Results reveal that falling and increasing oil prices as well as gross capital formation affect economic growth in Nigeria negatively and significantly in the short-run, while electricity consumption affects economic growth positively and significantly in the short-run. In the long-run, the impact on economic growth of negative changes in oil price is negative and insignificant, while positive changes in oil price have a positive but insignificant impact on economic growth. The impact on the economic growth of electricity consumption remains positive but insignificant while that of gross capital formation is positive and significant. The results suggest that both in the short and the long run positive changes in oil price have greater impact on the economic growth than negative oil price changes. Capital formation is a significant determinant of Nigerian economic growth both in the short and the long run.

scholarly journals Ageing Population's Impact on Economic Growth in Malaysia From 1981 to 2019: Evidence From an Autoregressive Distributed Lag Approach

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Siti Nur Ain Mohd ◽  
Ayunee Anis Ishak ◽  
Doris Padmini Selvaratnam
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Ageing Population ◽  
Age Dependency ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Population Variable ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

This study investigates the impact of the ageing population on the economic growth for short- and long-run estimations in Malaysia, by using time series data from 1981 to 2019. This study adopts the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) method with the Bound test approach for the long-run estimation and the vector error correction model for the short-run estimation. Several econometric diagnostic tests were applied for validation and the appropriate model specification basis. The estimated result of this work indicates that the age dependency ratio proxy for the ageing population variable has a significant negative impact on economic growth in Malaysia. A 1% increase in old age dependency will decline gross domestic product's (GDP's) growth by an average of 6.6043% at the 5% level of significance. Hence, an increase in the ageing population will impede economic growth. Although controlled variables (e.g., physical capital, labour participation, and human capital) have a significant positive impact on economic growth in Malaysia, there is evidence of a long- and short-run relationship between economic growth and the ageing population variable, and also the control variable.

scholarly journals The Impact of Saving and Financial Development on Economic Growth in Turkey

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Hatem Hatef Abdulkadhim Altaee ◽  
Mohamed Khaled Al-Jafari
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Domestic Saving ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

Since saving and financial development are vital to economic growth, this research empirically investigates the impact of saving and financial development on economic growth in Turkey. Therefore, a time series data from 1968 until 2017 were tested utilizing both the error correction model (ECM) and the autoregressive distributed lag approach (ARDL). The findings reveal an existence of a short-run and a long-run positive and significant effect of savings and financial development on economic growth. Conventional inputs such as capital and labor proved to be the most important factors in achieving economic growth in Turkey. The study concludes that an appropriate policy mix will enhance domestic saving in the country.

ON AUTOREGRESSIVE DISTRIBUTED LAG, COINTEGRATION AND ERROR CORRECTION MODEL: An Application to Some Nigeria Macroeconomic Variables

2012 ◽  
Vol 02 (08) ◽  
pp. 56-62
Author(s):  
Olanrewaju I. Shittu ◽  
Raphael A. Yemitan ◽  
OlaOluwa S. Yaya
Keyword(s):  
Error Correction ◽  
Error Correction Model ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Ardl Approach ◽  
Short Run

This paper reviews the use of the traditional ARDL and the ARDL approach to cointegration for the analysis of short-run dynamic and long run relationship when series are difference stationary (series can be integrated of different orders). The two models were used to estimate the short-run dynamics and the long run relationships between selected Nigeria’s macroeconomic series. The results compares favorably with the theory that the ARDL is equivalent to the short-run dynamics of the error correction model (the resultant model from the ARDL approach to cointegration).

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