A Hybrid Space-Time Modelling Approach for Forecasting Monthly Temperature

Spatio-temporal forecasting has various applications in climate, transportation, geo-statistics, sociology, economics and in many other fields of study. The modelling of temperature and it forecasting is a challenging task due to spatial dependency of time series data and nonlinear in nature. To address these challenges, in this study we proposed hybrid Space-Time Autoregressive Moving Average-Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscadicity (STARMA-GARCH) model in order to describe and identify the behaviour of monthly maximum temperature and temperature range in Bihar. At the modelling process of STARMA, spatial characteristics are incorporated into the model using a weight matrix based on great circle distance between the regions. The residuals from the fitted STARMA model have been tested by Brock, Dechert, and Scheinkman (BDS) and Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscadicity-Lagrange Multiplier (ARCH-LM) test for the behaviour of nonlinearity and ARCH effect respectively. The test results revealed that presence of both nonlinearity and ARCH effect. Hence GARCH modelling is necessary. Therefore, the hybrid STARMA-GARCH model is used to capture the dynamics of monthly maximum temperature and temperature range. The results of the proposed hybrid STARMA (1 1 , 0, 0)−GARCH (0, 1) model has better modelling efficiency and forecasting precision over STARMA (1 1 ,0, 0) model.

The probabilities of type I and II error of null of cointegration tests: A Monte Carlo comparison

This paper evaluates the performance of eight tests with null hypothesis of cointegration on basis of probabilities of type I and II errors using Monte Carlo simulations. This study uses a variety of 132 different data generations covering three cases of deterministic part and four sample sizes. The three cases of deterministic part considered are: absence of both intercept and linear time trend, presence of only the intercept and presence of both the intercept and linear time trend. It is found that all of tests have either larger or smaller probabilities of type I error and concluded that tests face either problems of over rejection or under rejection, when asymptotic critical values are used. It is also concluded that use of simulated critical values leads to controlled probability of type I error. So, the use of asymptotic critical values may be avoided, and the use of simulated critical values is highly recommended. It is found and concluded that the simple LM test based on KPSS statistic performs better than rest for all specifications of deterministic part and sample sizes.

The Determinants of Gold Price in Malaysia

The purpose of this paper is to look into the linkage between inflation rate, exchange rate, stock market return with price of gold. The sample collected for this empirical study covered 30 years of data from 1991 to 2020. The secondary data was collected annually and total 30 observations are taken for each variable. Multiple Linear Regression model is developed to find out the linkage between variables chosen with gold prices. The independent variables included Inflation rate (Consumer Price Index), exchange rate (Malaysia to USD), stock market return (FTSE Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite Index) and dependent variable is Price of Gold. Besides that, several tests are used including Unit Root Test (Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test), Jarque-Bera Normality Test, Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test, Heteroscedasticity-White Test, Ramsey Regression Equation Specification Error (RESET) Test and Granger Causality Test. The time series analysis used as the methodology by using Eview 11 to proceed all the test. The result showed that inflation rate and exchange rate have strong positive link to gold price while stock market return does not have significant relationship with gold price. In summary, this research can provide reference for other investors.

The Influence of Debt Financing on Firms’ Performance: Empirical Evidence from Malaysia

This study investigated the relationship between the listed firms’ debt level and performance in Bursa Malaysia during a five-year period. Based on the results of the Hausman test and Breusch-Pagan LM test, the fixed-effect model is the most appropriate model that used to analyze the panel data of 50 Malaysian listed companies within the property sector from the year 2015 to 2019. The results indicated that the short-term debt (STD) and long-term debt (LTD) have positive and insignificant effects on return on asset (ROA), which means that the increase in the short-term debt and long-term debt will lead to an increase in the return on assets. Besides that, account payables (AP) has a negative and insignificant effect on the profitability of property sector companies. According to the outcome of the Granger Causality test, the return on assets does not affect by the account payables, short-term debt, long-term debt and firm size. There is only one unidirectional causality relationship that proves that short-term debt is affected by long-term debt. Additionally, this study focuses on enhancing the existing empirical knowledge of debt financing's influence on the profitability of the listed firms in the property sector.

ANALISIS FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI PENYERAPAN TENAGA KERJA DI PROVINSI JAWA TENGAH

Labor absorption is an important factor in supporting economic development through national income. The low level of employment is still a problem in various regions in Indonesia, especially in Central Java Province. The problem of employment, can be overcome by maximizing the factors that affect the increase in labor absorption. Therefore, it is necessary to analyze the factors that are thought to affect the increase in labor absorption. This study aims to analyze the factors that influence labor absorption in Central Java Province. This study uses a descriptive quantitative approach with a panel data regression model. The best model selection test used is the Chow test, Hausman test, and Lagrange Multiplier test (LM) Test which was carried out using the Eviews 9 software. This study uses cross section data from 35 districts/cities in Central Java Province and time series data on the number of workers, labor force, unemployment, minimum wages, and GRDP of each district/city for the 2015-2020 period. The results of the discussion show that simultaneously and partially the number of workers, the number of the workforce, the number of unemployed, the minimum wage, and GRDP have an effect on the absorption of labor in Central Java Province.

Government size and economic growth in African emerging economies: does the BARS curve exist?

PurposeThis study is aimed at testing the validity of the BARS theory and determining the threshold level at which excessive government expenditure hampers growth. The data from 10 African emerging economies from 1988 to 2019 were used.Design/methodology/approachThe methodology comprises several different stages. In the first stage, an Lagrange Multiplier (LM) type test was employed to find the appropriate transition variable among all the candidate variables to assess the linearity between government expenditure and economic growth and to find the sequence for selecting the order m of the transition function. The linearity test helped to identify the nature of the relationships between government expenditure and economic growth. In the second stage, the model evaluation was tested using the wild cluster bootstrap-Lagrange Multiplier (WCL-LM) test to assess appropriateness of the model. Thirdly, the Panel smooth transition regression (PSTR) model with one regime was estimated to test the validity of the BARS curve.FindingsThe results revealed evidence of nonlinear effects between government expenditure and economic growth, where the size of the government spending was found to be a 27.84% share of GDP, above which government expenditure caused growth to decline in African emerging economies. The findings combined into an inverted U-shape relationship, in line with the BARS theory.Originality/valueThis study proposes that policy-makers ought to formulate prudent fiscal policies that encourage expenditure, which would improve growth for selected countries as their current level of spending is below the threshold. This might be done through: (1) a suitable investment portfolio and (2) spending more on infrastructure.

Effect of Institutional and Insider Ownership on Dividend Policy: Evidence from Pakistan

This research study aimed to examine the effect of institutional and insider ownership on dividend policy of a firm. Ownership structure play a vital role in explaining firm dividend policy. To investigate the effect of institutional and insider ownership on dividend policy, a random sample of 50 non-financial firms was selected for the period of 2009 to 2013. The study based on panel data so for the selection of appropriate panel data model among pooled OLS, Random effect and Fixed effect, Breusch Pagan LM test, Chow test, and Hausman test were used and random effect model was found best fitted. Results indicated that institutional ownership has positive relationship while insider ownership has negative relationship with dividend payout. Further, inclusion of institutional ownership along with insider ownership has increased the explanatory power of the model by 5.56% which is the incremental effect of the institutional ownership. Moreover, free cash flows and leverage have negative while firm size and market to book value have positive relationship with dividend payout.

The Impact Of Corporate Governance on The Financial Performance in Malaysia

The aim of this study is to investigate the relationship between corporate governance and firm financial performance in Malaysia. This study is mainly focusing on four sections of corporate governance which are board independent, board size, the frequency of audit committee meeting and firm size. The population of this study is Top 30 firms in Malaysia that are public listed in Bursa Malaysia while for the period, this study focusses on year 2016 to 2019 which is 4 years. This study uses Return on Assets (ROA) to measure the firm effectiveness and efficiency. As for statistical analysis, this study uses E-View to run all the test such as Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test, Hausman Test, Ordinary Least Squared (OLS) method, Autocorrelation, Multicollinearity and Normality Test. According to the results of the analysis, board independent has positive insignificant relationship with firm performances while board size and firm performances have negative and insignificant relationship. As for the frequency of audit committee meeting and firm size, the results display that both variables have negatively significant relationship with the performances of the firm. Apart from that this study use two theory which are Prospect Theory and Agency Theory.

The Capital Structure and It’s Impact on the Profitability of the FMCG Companies in India – A Study

The purpose of this study is to examine the impact of the capital structure on the profitability of the companies under the FMCG sector listed in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India. The sample of 10 companies over 14 years from 2007 to 2020 is considered in this study. To examine the impact of capital structure on the profitability, Total Debt to Total Assets (TDTA) Debt- Equity (DE), Interest Coverage Ratio (ICR) consider as the independent variables, Price to Book Value Ratio (PBVR) and Growth (GROW) considered as the control variables and Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) considered as dependent variable (profitability). To fulfil the objective of the study Pearsons' Correlation has been conducted for testing the Collinearity, Shapiro- Wilk test has been run for normality test of the variables, to test the Stationary Hadri LM test, Kao and Pedroni test for cointegration test and to choose the appropriate model Hausman test and finally, for the result, I run Fixed Effect Model. The result of the Regression analysis showed that Total Debt to Total Assets (TDTA), Debt- Equity (DE), Interest Coverage Ratio (ICR), and Price to Book Value are the factors that have an impact on the Profitability (ROCE) of the company. The empirical result also suggests that total debt to Total Assets (TDTA), Interest Coverage Ratio (ICR), and Price to Book Value of the company have a positive impact but Debt -Equity has a negative impact on the ROCE