scholarly journals Inflation Targeting Monetary Policy and Unemployment in South Africa

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (4(J)) ◽  
pp. 88-96 ◽  
Author(s):  
Harris Maduku ◽  
Irrshad Kaseeram
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
South Africa ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
South African ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
The South ◽  
Reserve Bank ◽  
The Impact

We analyze the impact of inflation, growth and exchange rate on unemployment in South Africa using annual data spanning 1980- 2017. Using the ARDL methodology we find that there is a negative longrun relationship between inflation and unemployment in South Africa and inflation is significant in explaining unemployment. Other variables of interest, economic growth and exchange rate are also significant in explaining unemployment. We use the findings of our study to propose that the South African Reserve Bank(SARB) should consider revising its objectives so that they can consider getting involved in targeting unemployment so that they help nurse the economy from the wounds of high inequality and poverty. 

scholarly journals An investigation into the ability of the reverse yield gap to forecast inflation and economic growth in South Africa

2018 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Keren A. Gossman ◽  
Mark G. Hayes
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
South Africa ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Linear Relationship ◽  
South African ◽  
Core Model ◽  
Target Range ◽  
The South ◽  
Yield Gap ◽  
Inflation Forecasting

Background: Monetary policy in South Africa is carried out by the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) with the aim of keeping inflation within a target range of 3% – 6%. The SARB uses a variety of models to aid them, with the core model being the most significant. Aim: The primary aim of this research is to determine whether the reverse yield gap (RYG) contains information that could be useful to the SARB when making monetary policy decisions. Setting: The authors found no evidence that similar studies on the RYG have previously been done in the South African context. Since the yield curve has been found to be significant in South Africa at forecasting economic growth, yet insignificant in Europe, the results for this research may too be different to the global experience. Methods: The authors tested for linear relationships between the RYG and economic growth and inflation over the period 1960–2014. Results: The results indicate that a slight linear relationship may exist in the case of economic growth, with the RYG based on earnings yields showing better out-of-sample forecasting abilities. Further investigation indicates that the linear relationship is stronger during times of economic upturn. The results for inflation forecasting, however, show no signs of a reasonable linear relationship. Conclusion: There is evidence for the SARB to consider whether the RYG can replace other economic variables in its core model without loss of predictive ability. Interestingly, this study found evidence to suggest that the RYG has an inverse relationship to future economic growth in South Africa, which is not what was expected.

scholarly journals Trade liberalisation, competitiveness and the real exchange rate (RER): An analysis of developments in South Africa during the 1990s

2003 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 643-665
Author(s):  
L Rangasamy ◽  
C Harmse
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
South African ◽  
Manufacturing Sector ◽  
Trade Liberalisation ◽  
The South ◽  
Domestic Prices ◽  
Tradable Sector ◽  
The Impact

This paper tests whether tariff liberalisation has lead to increased competitiveness in the South African economy. The 46 sectors of the South African economy are classified as exportable, importable, importable and exportable and non-tradable. The impact of trade liberalisation on domestic prices for importables and exportables is then assessed by making use of real exchange rate calculations. It is concluded that while increased globalisation of production processes in South Africa may have improved the competitiveness of the tradable sector, tariff liberalisation played a minimal role in improving competitiveness in the manufacturing sector.

scholarly journals Modeling Monetary Policy In South Africa: Focus On Inflation Targeting Era Using A Simple Learning Rule

2010 ◽  
Vol 9 (12) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ruthira Naraidoo ◽  
Rangan Gupta
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
South African ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Learning Rule ◽  
Model Specification ◽  
Reserve Bank ◽  
Downward Deviation

A simple empirical nonlinear framework is used to analyze monetary policy between 1983 and 2007 in South Africa, focusing on the policy of inflation targeting introduced in Feb 2000, more precisely when the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) announced that an inflation zone targeting regime of 3-6% would be in place. We find that a model specification embodying a simple ‘inflation learning rule’ for the future inflation rate seems to provide a better understanding of the decision process made by the SARB in its interest rate setting policy. The main findings are:  1) that the adoption of inflation targeting led to significant changes in monetary policy, 2) post-2000 monetary policy is asymmetric as policymakers respond more to downward deviation of inflation away from the target, 3) post-2000 policymakers may be attempting to keep inflation within the 4.5%–6.9% range rather than pursuing a target zone of 3-6%, as generally pre-announced, and 4) the response of monetary policy to inflation is nonlinear as interest rates respond more when inflation is further from the target.

The influence of inflation targeting on the pass-through effect of the exchange rate

2018 ◽  
pp. 70-84
Author(s):  
Ph. S. Kartaev ◽  
Yu. I. Yakimova
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Policy Regime ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Pass Through ◽  
The Impact

The paper studies the impact of the transition to the inflation targeting regime on the magnitude of the pass-through effect of the exchange rate to prices. We analyze cross-country panel data on developed and developing countries. It is shown that the transition to this regime of monetary policy contributes to a significant reduction in both the short- and long-term pass-through effects. This decline is stronger in developing countries. We identify the main channels that ensure the influence of the monetary policy regime on the pass-through effect, and examine their performance. In addition, we analyze the data of time series for Russia. It was concluded that even there the transition to inflation targeting led to a decrease in the dependence of the level of inflation on fluctuations in the ruble exchange rate.

The impact of climate temperature on counts, recovery, and death rates due to SARS-CoV-2 in South Africa. (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Neven Chetty ◽  
Bamise Adeleye ◽  
Abiola Olawale Ilori
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
South African ◽  
Death Rate ◽  
Western Cape ◽  
Warm Climate ◽  
The South ◽  
Recovery Rates ◽  
Death Rates ◽  
Online Resource ◽  
The Impact

BACKGROUND The impact of climate temperature on the counts (number of positive COVID-19 cases reported), recovery, and death rates of COVID-19 cases in South Africa's nine provinces was investigated. The data for confirmed cases of COVID-19 were collected for March 25 and June 30, 2020 (14 weeks) from South Africa's Government COVID-19 online resource, while the daily provincial climate temperatures were collected from the website of the South African Weather Service. Our result indicates that a higher or lower climate temperature does not prevent or delay the spread and death rates but shows significant positive impacts on the recovery rates of COVID-19 patients. Thus, it indicates that the climate temperature is unlikely to impose a strict limit on the spread of COVID-19. There is no correlation between the cases and death rates, an indicator that no particular temperature range is closely associated with a faster or slower death rate of COVID-19 patients. As evidence from our study, a warm climate temperature can only increase the recovery rate of COVID-19 patients, ultimately impacting the death and active case rates and freeing up resources quicker to enable health facilities to deal with those patients' climbing rates who need treatment. OBJECTIVE This study aims to investigate the impact of climate temperature variation on the counts, recovery, and death rates of COVID-19 cases in all South Africa's provinces. The findings were compared with those of countries with comparable climate temperature values. METHODS The data for confirmed cases of COVID-19 were collected for March 25 and June 30 (14 weeks) for South African provinces, including daily counts, death, and recovery rates. The dates were grouped into two, wherein weeks 1-5 represent the periods of total lockdown to contain the spread of COVID-19 in South Africa. Weeks 6-14 are periods where the lockdown was eased to various levels 4 and 3. The daily information of COVID-19 count, death, and recovery was obtained from South Africa's Government COVID-19 online resource (https://sacoronavirus.co.za). Daily provincial climate temperatures were collected from the website of the South African Weather Service (https://www.weathersa.co.za). The provinces of South Africa are Eastern Cape, Western Cape, Northern Cape, Limpopo, Northwest, Mpumalanga, Free State, KwaZulu-Natal, Western Cape, and Gauteng. Weekly consideration was given to the daily climate temperature (average minimum and maximum). The recorded values were considered, respectively, to be in the ratio of death-to-count (D/C) and recovery-to-count (R/C). Descriptive statistics were performed for all the data collected for this study. The analyses were performed using the Person’s bivariate correlation to analyze the association between climate temperature, death-to-count, and recovery-to-count ratios of COVID-19. RESULTS The results showed that higher climate temperatures aren't essential to avoid the COVID-19 from being spread. The present results conform to the reports that suggested that COVID-19 is unlike the seasonal flu, which does dissipate as the climate temperature rises [17]. Accordingly, the ratio of counts and death-to-count cannot be concluded to be influenced by variations in the climate temperatures within the study areas. CONCLUSIONS The study investigates the impact of climate temperature on the counts, recovery, and death rates of COVID-19 cases in all South Africa's provinces. The findings were compared with those of countries with comparable climate temperatures as South Africa. Our result indicates that a higher or lower climate temperature does not prevent or delay the spread and death rates but shows significant positive impacts on the recovery rates of COVID-19 patients. Warm climate temperatures seem not to restrict the spread of the COVID-19 as the count rate was substantial at every climate temperatures. Thus, it indicates that the climate temperature is unlikely to impose a strict limit on the spread of COVID-19. There is no correlation between the cases and death rates, an indicator that there is no particular temperature range of the climatic conditions closely associated with a faster or slower death rate of COVID-19 patients. However, other shortcomings in this study's process should not be ignored. Some other factors may have contributed to recovery rates, such as the South African government's timely intervention to announce a national lockout at the early stage of the outbreak, the availability of intensive medical care, and social distancing effects. Nevertheless, this study shows that a warm climate temperature can only help COVID-19 patients recover more quickly, thereby having huge impacts on the death and active case rates.

Is the monetary policy behaviour of the South African Reserve Bank nonlinear

2021 ◽  
Vol 24 (2) ◽  
pp. 193
Author(s):  
Imhotep Paul Alagidede ◽  
Abdul Aziz Iddrisu
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
South African ◽  
The South ◽  
Reserve Bank

scholarly journals The Contribution of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) To Domestic Employment Levels in South Africa: A Vector Autoregressive Approach

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (1(J)) ◽  
pp. 110-121
Author(s):  
Bongumusa Prince Makhoba, ◽  
Irrshad Kaseeram
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
South Africa ◽  
Least Squares ◽  
South African ◽  
Empirical Analysis ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Series Data ◽  
The South ◽  
Vector Autoregressive

Several empirical works have yielded mixed and controversial results with regard to the effects of FDI on employment and economic growth. The primary focus of this study is to investigate the contribution of FDI to domestic employment levels in the context of the South African economy. The analyses of the study were carried out using the annual time series data from 1980 to 2015. The macroeconomic variables employed in the empirical investigation include employment, FDI, GDP, inflation, trade openness and unit labour costs. The study used secondary data from the South African Reserve Bank and Statistics South Africa database. The study estimated a Vector Autoregressive/ Vector Error Correction Mechanism (VAR/VECM) approach to conduct empirical analysis. However, the study also employed single equation estimation techniques, including the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS), Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS) and Canonical Cointegrating Regression (CCR) models as supporting tools to verify the VAR/VECM results. This study provides strong evidence of a significant negative relationship between FDI and employment levels in the South African economy. Empirical analysis of the study suggests that the effect of economic growth on employment is highly positive and significant in South Africa’s economy. The study recommends that policymakers ought to invest more in productive sectors that aim to promote economic growth and development to boost employment opportunities in South Africa.

scholarly journals How applicable is export-led growth and import-led growth hypotheses to South African economy?

2015 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 15-24
Author(s):  
Ntebogang Dinah Moroke ◽  
Molebogeng Manoto
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
South Africa ◽  
Adverse Effect ◽  
Time Series ◽  
South African ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Reserve Bank ◽  
Equilibrium Relationship

This paper investigated exports, imports and the economic growth nexus in the context of South Africa. The paper sets out to examine if long-run and causal relationships exist between these variables. Quarterly time series data ranging between 1998 and 2013 obtained from the South African Reserve Bank and Quantec databases was employed. Initial data analysis proved that the variables are integrated at their levels. The results further indicated that exports, imports and economic growth are co-integrated, confirming an existence of a long-run equilibrium relationship. Granger causal results were shown running from exports and imports to GDP and from imports to exports, validating export-led and import-led growth hypotheses in South Africa. A significant causality running from imports to exports, suggests that South Africa imported finished goods in excess. If this is not avoided, lots of problems could be caused. A suggestion was made to avoid such problematic issues as they may lead to replaced domestic output and displacement of employees. Another dreadful ramification may be an adverse effect on the economy which may further be experienced in the long-run.

scholarly journals The impact of the credit legislation on consumers

2016 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 503-509 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hlako Choma ◽  
Thifulufhelwi Cedric Tshidada ◽  
Tshegofatso Kgarabjang
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
South African ◽  
Consumer Protection ◽  
The Other ◽  
The South ◽  
Other Hand ◽  
Credit Agreement ◽  
Financial Obligation ◽  
The Impact ◽  
National Credit Act

The purpose of this paper is to examine two South Africa legislations dealing with over indebtedness of a consumer. It is clear that in terms of the South African law, section 129 (1) and 130 (3) of the National Credit Act provide that a creditor provider who wishes to enforce a debt under a credit agreement must first issue a section 129 (1) (a) notice to the consumer (the purpose of the notice is to notify the consumer of his/her arrears). On the other hand, the South African National Credit Act encourages the consumers to fulfil the financial obligations for which they are responsible. The second legislation to be examined which serve or appear to serve same purpose as the National Credit Act is the Insolvency Act. It therefore, postulated that the compulsory sequestration of a consumer in terms of the Insolvency Act would stand as an alternative remedy for a credit provider before she/he can have recourse mechanisms, such as debt review that are focused on satisfaction of the consumer’s financial obligation , in terms of the provisions of the National Credit Act. The paper determines to what extend these measures comply with the constitutional consumer protection demands. The legislature had been pertinently cognizant of the Insolvency Act when it lately enacted the National Credit Act. This is much apparent from the express amendment of section 84 of the Insolvency Act to the extent set out in schedule 2 of the National Credit Act

scholarly journals Albania's Monetary Policy and the Basic Indicators that Effect the Economic Growth

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 51
Author(s):  
Bernard Balla
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Full Employment ◽  
Price Stability ◽  
Macroeconomic Policies ◽  
Consumer Prices

Macroeconomic policies aim to stabilize the economy by achieving their goal of price stability, full employment and economic growth. Price stability is the responsibility of macroeconomic policies that are developed to maintain a low inflation rate, contribute to the solidity of the domestic product and maintain an exchange rate that can be predictable. The purpose of this paper is to analyze Albania's monetary policy by highlighting the main indicators that can be used as a measurement of the efficiency of this policy in the economic development. The literature review shows that there are many attitudes regarding the factors that need to be taken into consideration when analyzing monetary policies, including the elements of fiscal policies. In the Albanian economy, the prices and the level of inflation are the most important aspects. The Bank of Albania uses the inflation targeting regime, considering that the main indicator of inflationary pressures in the economy is the deviation of inflation forecasted in the medium term by its target level. In numerical terms, the bank intends to maintain its annual growth in consumer prices at the level of 3%. According to the latest reports published by the Bank of Albania in 2019, monetary policy continues to contribute positively to a financial environment with a low interest rate and an annual inflation rate of 2%. Although the inflation rate hit the lowest value of 1.8 % in 2018, a balanced rate was achieved through the reduction of interest rates and risk premiums in financial markets and, more recently, through the tightening of the exchange rate. These monetary conditions are appropriate to support the growth of domestic demand and the strengthening of inflationary pressures.

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