Government spending, the exchange rate and growth: empirical evidence for Latin America

ABSTRACT Using data of selected economies of Latin America for the period 1990-2017, this paper aims to provide empirical evidence regarding the effect of disaggregate government spending in the exchange rate. Our results indicate that government investment depreciates the exchange rate whereas government consumption, on the other hand, appreciates it. Both effects are, however, rather small. Our findings support recent literature showing that the relationship among government spending and the exchange rate is ambiguous, challenging the general accepted idea that government spending inevitably appreciates the exchange rate, having thus negative effects on the tradable sector and on growth. Overall, our results allow us to suggest that growth can be stimulated particularly via government investment without detrimental effects on the exchange rate.

Dutch Disease Syndrome: The Nigeria’s Resource Trap Sickness, Easy to Catch, Harmful to the System and Difficult to Cure

This study examines the economy of Dutch disease syndrome in Nigeria from 1970 – 1985. The paper argues that the discovery of oil in 1970 opened-up windows of opportunities for the country, as a result of high inflow of petrodollar surpluses. The paradoxical effect is this, after reaching its peak period, the surpluses decline steadily and the revenue it generated when prices were high tends to cause “Dutch Disease”. The result of this study establishes the existence of resource curse in the Nigeria’s economy system. Findings of this study shows that the non-support of tradable sector, corruption, mismanagement, lack of diversification of export base and the non-oil sectors like agriculture, industries and mining, affected the country’s economic base. Thus, it was easy for Nigerians to catch the high oil prices, the decline in the oil boom transformed into a harmful poverty disease and it has now become very difficult to cure despite so many efforts. This shows that, there is a paradox of scarcity amidst plenty. This paper adopts the historical research method which relies on qualitative approach of data analysis. The paper draws conclusion to the fact that, oil discovery in Nigeria is a curse rather than a blessing.

The Foundational Economy as a Cornerstone for a Social–Ecological Transformation

This theoretical paper synthesises research on the foundational economy and its contribution to a social–ecological transformation. While foundational thinking offers rich concepts and policies to transition towards such transformation, it fails to grasp the systematic non-sustainability of capitalism. This weakness can be overcome by enriching contemporary foundational thinking with feminist and ecological economics. Whereas the feminist critique problematises foundational thinking’s focus on paid labour, the ecological critique targets Sen’s capability approach as a key inspiration of foundational thinking, arguing that a theory of human needs is better suited to conceptualise wellbeing within planetary boundaries. Based on this, we outline a novel schema of economic zones and discuss their differentiated contributions to the satisfaction of human needs. By privileging need satisfaction, such broadened foundational thinking demotes the tradable sector and rentier economy, thereby revaluating unpaid work as well as respecting ecological imperatives. This empowers new articulations of social and ecological struggles to improve living conditions in the short run, while having the potential in the long run to undermine capitalism from within.

Could Palm Oil Plantation Increase Individual Expenditure? The Dutch Disease Implication in Indonesia

Indonesia is the largest palm-oil producing country, covering almost 80 percent of global production. With the extensive production capacity, this research seeks to analyze the linkages between palm oil production and its impact on the economy by the individual monthly expenditure. To reveal the connections, this research analyzes the Dutch Disease phenomenon in Indonesia, which explains how the non-tradable sector, palm-oil industry, affects the tradable sector like the manufacturing industry. The panel data variables are selected from 2011 to 2015 within 22 provinces to see the Dutch Disease's implications. As the model is suffered from the endogeneity, the correlation of explanatory variables with the error term, the research uses the Instrumental-Variable Regression method. The analysis indicates that Indonesia was not suffered from Dutch Disease. Therefore, palm oil production could increase individual expenditure. Finally, the extension of palm oil plantations could benefit Indonesia's economy without affecting other sectors.JEL Classification: E21, E24, O13, O44How to Cite:Siregar, C. D. T., & Sihaloho, E. D. (2021). Could Palm Oil Plantation Increase Individual Expenditure? The Dutch Disease Implication in Indonesia. Signifikan: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi, 10(1), 77-92. doi: http://doi.org/10.15408/sjie.v10i1.15831.

Paraguay

In the past two decades, Paraguay has seen strong growth and a sharp reduction in poverty. Strong GDP growth was the result of sound macro policies (with low inflation and low fiscal deficits and debt) and an agricultural commodity price boom which spilled over to the non-tradable sector. Growth was not just high but also volatile, as bad weather shocks led to poor harvests, which spill over to the broader economy. In early 2020, Paraguay was rebounding strongly from another weather shock, and full-year growth was forecast at over 4 percent. In 2019, bad weather had reduced the harvest, and GDP growth had come to a near standstill. A recovery started in the second half of 2019 and gathered strength in early 2020—in February economic activity was 7 percent higher than a year earlier. The Covid-19 epidemic halted the recovery. An early lockdown—which kept the death toll among the lowest in the region—led to a sharp contraction in economic activity, with April activity levels at 20 percent below those in February. Women, informal sector workers, and workers in the service sector were particularly hard hit; while children were severely affected by the closing of the schools until the end of 2020.

UNEXPLAINED WAGE GAPS IN THE TRADABLE AND NONTRADABLE SECTORS: CROSS-SECTIONAL EVIDENCE BY GENDER IN BOLIVIA

This document analyzes the gender wage gap between in tradable and non-tradable sectors. The tradable sector is defined by the value of exports and imports in an industry based on the four-digit codes of the International Standard Industrial Classification. Based on Gary Becker's work, in an economy prone to discrimination against women, the document proposes a model from which discrimination is possible if companies generate supra-normal profits. These benefits will be determined by market power, which in turn depends on the number of companies participating in the industry, so under the assumption that tradable sectors are directly influenced by international trade and with the possibility of greater competition, this competition will generate a trend towards normal benefits, making it impossible to finance discrimination against women, so the wage gender gap should be lower in tradable than non-tradable sectors. Using the traditional Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition and the Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition with Recentered Influence Function (RIF) regressions for the 2013 Household Survey, we find that unexplained wage differences against women are significantly lower in the tradable sector, suggesting that the impact of international trade on the tradable sector helps to reduce the gender wage gap in Bolivia.

Market Power, Growth, and Inclusion

Before the pandemic, the South African economy remained stuck in low gear, with anemic growth, stagnant private investment, and a shrinking tradable sector. Subdued growth has raised unemployment, poverty, and inequality, hindering inclusion efforts. The pandemic has worsened economic and social vulnerabilities. Economic recovery and social inclusion hinge critically on structural reforms to boost competiveness and growth. Product markets represent a cornerstone of the reform strategy. Firms have used their market power to drive up prices and limit competition. Important state-owned monopolies provide low-quality services, while representing a fiscal drag. Existing regulations inhibit the entry of both domestic and foreign firms. Addressing product markets constraints could boost per capita growth by 1 percentage point—adding about 2½ percentage points to headline growth—and foster greater inclusion.

Real Convergence Across the Euro Area

This paper studies the relationship between real convergence in the euro area and macroeconomic imbalances. It compares the main features of convergence within the euro area with other EU and non-EU country groups, looking at both ‘sigma’ and ‘beta’ convergence in output and total factor productivity. Expected convergence paths for euro area countries are estimated using growth regressions run on a large panel of advanced and emerging market economies and compared to actual growth. The findings support the view that EU and euro area countries display similar convergence patterns to those of other country groups, while the group of countries that adopted the euro first exhibit relatively weak convergence since before the financial crisis. Such differences could be partly linked to relatively low dispersion in per capita incomes across this country group, although lack of convergence is also largely due to persisting differences in total factor productivity performance. The findings also suggest that macroeconomic imbalances accumulated in the pre-crisis period such as high private and government debt and strong growth in the non-tradable sector have been associated with lower convergence, particularly for euro area countries.