The Consequences of Negotiated Settlements in Civil Wars, 1945–1993

1995 ◽  
Vol 89 (3) ◽  
pp. 681-690 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roy Licklider
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
Civil Wars ◽  
Power Sharing ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Negotiated Settlements

We know very little about how civil wars end. Harrison Wagner has argued that negotiated settlements of civil wars are likely to break down because segments of power-sharing governments retain the capacity for resorting to civil war while victory destroys the losers' organization, making it very difficult to resume the war. An analysis of a data set of 91 post-1945 civil wars generally supports this hypothesis but only in wars over identity issues. Moreover, while military victories may be less likely to break down than negotiated settlements of identity civil wars, they are also more likely to be followed by acts of genocide. Outsiders concerned with minimizing violence thus face a dilemma.

scholarly journals International Peacebuilding: A Theoretical and Quantitative Analysis

2000 ◽  
Vol 94 (4) ◽  
pp. 779-801 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael W. Doyle ◽  
Nicholas Sambanis
Keyword(s):  
World War Ii ◽  
Civil War ◽  
Civil Wars ◽  
Three Dimensions ◽  
Effective Capacity ◽  
Peace Operations ◽  
World War ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Un Peacekeeping ◽  
International Peacebuilding

International peacebuilding can improve the prospects that a civil war will be resolved. Although peacebuilding strategies must be designed to address particular conflicts, broad parameters that fit most conflicts can be identified. Strategies should address the local roots of hostility, the local capacities for change, and the (net) specific degree of international commitment available to assist sustainable peace. One can conceive of these as the three dimensions of a triangle whose area is the “political space”—or effective capacity—for building peace. We test these propositions with an extensive data set of 124 post–World War II civil wars and find that multilateral, United Nations peace operations make a positive difference. UN peacekeeping is positively correlated with democratization processes after civil war, and multilateral enforcement operations are usually successful in ending the violence. Our study provides broad guidelines for designing the appropriate peacebuilding strategy, given the mix of hostility, local capacities, and international capacities.

scholarly journals Disloyalty and Logics of Fratricide in Civil War: Executions of Officers in Republican Spain, 1936-1939

2018 ◽  
Vol 52 (7) ◽  
pp. 1028-1058 ◽  
Author(s):  
Theodore McLauchlin ◽  
Álvaro La Parra-Pérez
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
Civil Wars ◽  
Spanish Civil War ◽  
Armed Groups ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Political Actors ◽  
Unique Data ◽  
Political Forces ◽  
The Republic ◽  
Military Politics

Violence within armed groups in civil wars is important and understudied. Linking literatures on civil war violence and military politics, this article asks when this fratricidal violence targets soldiers who try to defect, and when it does not. It uses a unique data set of executions of officers on the Republican side of the Spanish Civil War. The article finds that while much of the violence appeared to target those who actually tried to defect, many nondefectors were likely shot too, due most likely to a pervasive stereotype that officers in general were disloyal to the Republic. This stereotype was used as an information shortcut and was promoted by political actors. Accordingly, unlikely defectors were likelier to be shot in locations in which less information was available about loyalties and in which political forces that were suspicious of officers as a group were locally stronger.

Ending Civil Wars: A Case for Rebel Victory?

2010 ◽  
Vol 34 (4) ◽  
pp. 7-36 ◽  
Author(s):  
Monica Duffy Toft
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
Statistical Analysis ◽  
Policy Analysis ◽  
Civil Wars ◽  
The Other ◽  
War Termination ◽  
Negotiated Settlement ◽  
Long Term Stability ◽  
Negotiated Settlements

Since 1990, negotiated settlements have become the preferred means for settling civil wars. Historically, however, these types of settlements have proven largely ineffective: civil wars ended by negotiated settlement are more likely to recur than those ending in victory by one side or the other. A theoretical and statistical analysis of how civil wars end reveals that the type of ending influences the prospects for longer-term outcomes. An examination of all civil war endings since 1940 finds that rebel victories are more likely to secure the peace than are negotiated settlements. A statistical analysis of civil wars from 1940 to 2002 and the case of Uganda illustrate why rebel victories result in more stable outcomes. Expanding scholarly and policy analysis of civil war termination types beyond the current default of negotiated settlement to include victories provides a much larger set of cases and variables to draw upon to enhance understanding of the conditions most likely to support long-term stability, democracy, and prosperity.

Deals with the Devil? Conflict Amnesties, Civil War, and Sustainable Peace

2018 ◽  
Vol 72 (2) ◽  
pp. 387-421 ◽  
Author(s):  
Geoff Dancy
Keyword(s):  
Civil Wars ◽  
Bargaining Theory ◽  
Data Set ◽  
International Policy ◽  
Negotiated Settlements ◽  
Peace Agreements ◽  
Sustainable Peace ◽  
Disaggregated Data ◽  
Conflict Termination ◽  
The Devil

AbstractDo legal amnesties for combatants help end civil wars? International policy experts often take it for granted that amnesties promote negotiated settlements with rebels. However, a large number of amnesties are followed by continued fighting or a return to the battlefield. What, then, are the factors that make amnesties effective or ineffective? In this article I use a disaggregated data set of all amnesties enacted in the context of internal war since 1946 to evaluate a bargaining theory of amnesties and peace. Testing hypotheses about conflict patterns using models that account for selection, I find that (1) only amnesties passed following conflict termination help resolve civil wars, (2) amnesties are more effective when they are embedded in peace agreements, and (3) amnesties that grant immunity for serious rights violations have no observable pacifying effects. These policy-relevant findings represent a new breakthrough in an ossified “peace versus justice” debate pitting security specialists against global human rights advocates.

scholarly journals What's in a Line? Is Partition a Solution to Civil War?

2009 ◽  
Vol 34 (2) ◽  
pp. 82-118 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicholas Sambanis ◽  
Jonah Schulhofer-Wohl
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
Empirical Analysis ◽  
Civil Wars ◽  
Case Histories ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Extant Literature ◽  
Data Coding ◽  
Quantitative Studies ◽  
Methodological Problems ◽  
Formal Recognition

Does territorial partition of countries in civil wars help to end these wars, reducing the risk of recurrence? Researchers have proposed territorial partition with or without formal recognition of sovereignty as a solution to civil wars and a way to create self-enforcing peace. Quantitative studies of the effect of partition on the risk of renewed civil war, however, suffer several main shortcomings, including conflicting results in the extant literature that result mainly from data coding differences, selective use of case histories, and methodological problems. A new data set and a benchmark empirical analysis find that, on average, partition is unlikely to reduce the risk of a return to civil war and, in some cases, may increase that risk.

scholarly journals Partition as a Solution to Ethnic War: An Empirical Critique of the Theoretical Literature

2000 ◽  
Vol 52 (4) ◽  
pp. 437-483 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicholas Sambanis
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
Civil Wars ◽  
Ethnic Violence ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Population Movements ◽  
Physical Separation ◽  
Large N ◽  
Main Determinants ◽  
International War ◽  
Ethnic War

Theorists of ethnic conflict have argued that the physical separation of warring ethnic groups may be the only possible solution to civil war. They argue that without territorial partition and, if necessary, forced population movements the war cannot end and genocide is likely. Other scholars have counterargued that partition only replaces internal war with international war, that it creates undemocratic successor states, and that it generates tremendous human suffering. This debate has so far been informed by very few important case studies. This article uses a new data set on civil wars to identify the main determinants of war-related partitions and estimate their impact on democratization, on the probability that war will recur, and on low-level ethnic violence. This is the first large-N quantitative analysis of this topic, testing the propositions of partition theory and weighing heavily on the side of its critics. Most assertions of partition theorists fail to pass rigorous empirical tests. The article also identifies some determinants of democratization after civil war, as well as the determinants of recurring ethnic violence. These empirical findings are used to formulate an alternative proposal for ending ethnic violence.

Termination and Recurrence of Civil War: Which Outcomes Lead to Durable Peace after Civil War?

2011 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 375-398 ◽  
Author(s):  
HIROTAKA OHMURA
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
Civil Wars ◽  
Power Sharing ◽  
War Termination ◽  
Peacekeeping Operations ◽  
Post Conflict ◽  
Peace Settlement ◽  
Military Victory ◽  
Peace Duration ◽  
Durable Peace

AbstractThis article attempts to answer why some countries experience the recurrence of civil war and others do not. One of the most significant differences between civil war onset and its recurrence is that the latter has once experienced termination of civil war, while the former has not. To find the cause of recurrence, this article examines how different war termination types influence the duration of post-civil war peace. Duration analysis of the civil wars between 1944 and 1999 shows that military victory, supported by peacekeeping operations or power-sharing arrangements, leads to the most durable peace in a post-civil war country. Contrary to the accepted wisdom, negotiated peace settlement, even when supported by peacekeeping operations or power-sharing arrangements, is not positively related to post-conflict peace.

scholarly journals How and When Amnesty during Conflict Affects Conflict Termination

2020 ◽  
Vol 64 (9) ◽  
pp. 1612-1637
Author(s):  
Lesley-Ann Daniels
Keyword(s):  
Civil Wars ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Negotiated Settlement ◽  
Negotiated Settlements ◽  
Commitment Problem ◽  
Conflict Reduction ◽  
The Government ◽  
Conflict Termination ◽  
Commitment Problems ◽  
Cross National

In the difficult process of ending civil wars, granting amnesty during conflict is seen as a useful option, with an underpinning assumption that trading justice for peace is effective. However, is the case? This article tries to bring some clarity to when and how amnesty given during conflict has an impact. Amnesty should have different effects on diverse conflict endings: negotiated settlement, rebel victory, government victory, or conflict reduction. The article also disaggregates amnesties to test direct impacts as an incentive or through reducing the commitment problem, and indirect effects that give military advantage to the government. Using a cross-national data set of amnesties in dyadic conflicts from 1975 to 2011, the research finds that amnesty’s strongest effect is, surprisingly, not as an incentive but rather to reduce commitment problems. It can lead to negotiated settlements but also to government military advantage. The results have implications for negotiations and conflict resolution.

scholarly journals Predicting the decline of ethnic civil war

2017 ◽  
Vol 54 (2) ◽  
pp. 262-274 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lars-Erik Cederman ◽  
Kristian Skrede Gleditsch ◽  
Julian Wucherpfennig
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
Ethnic Groups ◽  
Political Violence ◽  
Civil Wars ◽  
Ethnic Conflict ◽  
Power Sharing ◽  
The Right ◽  
The Cold War ◽  
Ethnic War ◽  
Considerable Support

Many scholars have detected a decrease of political violence, but the causes of this decline remain unclear. As a contribution to this debate, we revisit the controversy over trends in conflict after the end of the Cold War. While many made ominous predictions of surging ethnic warfare, Gurr presented evidence of a pacifying trend since the mid-1990s and predicted a further decline in ethnic conflict in an article on ‘the waning of ethnic war’. Leveraging more recent data on ethnic groups and their participation in ethnic civil wars, this study evaluates if Gurr was right about the decline of ethnic conflict, and if he was right for the right reasons. We assess whether an increase in governments’ accommodative policies toward ethnic groups can plausibly account for a decline in ethnic civil war. Our findings lend considerable support to an account of the pacifying trend that stresses the granting of group rights, regional autonomy, and inclusion in power-sharing, as well as democratization and peacekeeping.

Civil War Termination

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Caroline A. Hartzell
Keyword(s):  
World War Ii ◽  
Civil War ◽  
Civil Wars ◽  
Peace Building ◽  
World War ◽  
Historical Trends ◽  
War Termination ◽  
Post World War Ii ◽  
Negotiated Settlements

Civil wars typically have been terminated by a variety of means, including military victories, negotiated settlements and ceasefires, and “draws.” Three very different historical trends in the means by which civil wars have ended can be identified for the post–World War II period. A number of explanations have been developed to account for those trends, some of which focus on international factors and others on national or actor-level variables. Efforts to explain why civil wars end as they do are considered important because one of the most contested issues among political scientists who study civil wars is how “best” to end a civil war if the goal is to achieve a stable peace. Several factors have contributed to this debate, among them conflicting results produced by various studies on this topic as well as different understandings of the concepts war termination, civil war resolution, peace-building, and stable peace.

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