The lecture describes recent advances in the use of physico-mathematical models to forecast the weather over the Northern Hemisphere for up to 3 days ahead with some general indications of developments up to 6 days in advance. A higher-resolution model is used to predict the evolution of smaller weather systems such as fronts and their associated rainfall over western Europe up to 36 h ahead. Examples of such forecasts, each of which involves some 10
10
numerical operations on the computer, are presented together with their verification by conventional and satellite observations. Complex mathematical models are also being used to simulate the global climate and to assess the probable influence of variations in the Sun’s radiation, the carbon dioxide and dust content of the atmosphere, vegetation, ice and snow cover, and sea surface temperatures. The results of model experiments to investigate the likely impact of man-made activities on the climate, for example the effects of increasing carbon dioxide, and of the release of nitrous oxides, freons and other trace chemicals on the ozonosphere, are described.
Recent advances in blast furnace ironmaking in Western Europe.
