Another Look at the Relation between Credit Spreads and Interest Rates

CFA Digest ◽  
2008 ◽  
Vol 38 (1) ◽  
pp. 20-22
Author(s):  
Deborah Kidd
2005 ◽  
Vol 08 (03) ◽  
pp. 321-338 ◽  
Author(s):  
TIEN FOO SING ◽  
SEOW ENG ONG ◽  
GANG-ZHI FAN ◽  
KIAN GUAN LIM

Asset-backed securitization (ABS) is a creative arrangement to raise funds through the issuance of marketable securities backed by predictable future cash flows from revenue-producing assets. This paper proposes two pricing models: structural model and intensity model, to value credit spreads on Singapore ABS bonds. Sensitivity analyses were conducted on the ABS credit spreads by varying the values of the key input variables within a plausible range. The property price volatility and its correlations with risk-less interest rates have been shown to have positive effects on the ABS credit spreads. However, when the market volatility is extremely high, the credit spreads decrease with an increase in the time to maturity. The positive effects of the property price volatility were significantly reduced when credit enhancements were added to the ABS bonds, and the credit risks associated with the correlation variable were fully eliminated in the credit enhanced ABS bonds. The rate of loss recovery in the event of default also has significant impact on the credit risks of the ABS bonds. ABS bonds backed by physical property will likely to have high recovery rates thus reducing the credit risks vis-à-vis non-collateralized bonds.


2007 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 59-71 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mingyan Lin ◽  
Jean-Christophe Curtillet

2005 ◽  
Vol 34 (1) ◽  
pp. 35-50 ◽  
Author(s):  
Niklas Wagner ◽  
Warren Hogan ◽  
Jonathan Batten

2016 ◽  
Vol 03 (03) ◽  
pp. 1650015 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chi-Fai Lo ◽  
Cho-Hoi Hui

This paper develops a corporate bond pricing model following the structural approach in which the dynamics of the instantaneous risk-free interest rate is governed by the double square-root (DSR) process. Credit spreads generated from the pricing model depend explicitly upon the levels of interest rates via the non-linear effect arising from the DSR process. Given a positive correlation between the interest rates and leverage ratios, the credit spreads generated by the pricing model have negative relationship with the interest rates, that is consistent with empirical findings using bond market data during 2008–2013 when interest rates were low.


2005 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 107-132
Author(s):  
Jang Koo Kang ◽  
Sung Hwan Kim ◽  
Chul Woo Han

This article uses a Kalman filter to fit yields of investment-grade corporate bonds to the model of instantaneous default risk, based on Duffee (1999. Review of Financial Studies. 12. PP. 197-226). The first part of this article fits the term structure of default-free interest rates to a translated two-factor square-root diffusion model. The parameters in the two-factor model are estimated by using a quasi-maxirnum-likelihood estimator in a state-space model in the Korean treasury bond market. A Kalman filter is used to estimate the unobservable factors. The two-factor model successfully incorporates random variations in the slope of the term structure and the level of interest rates‘ After estimating the default-free term structure of interest rates, the second part of this article extends the model to noncallable corporate bonds‘ This is done by assuming that the probability of default follows a translated square-root diffusion process with the possibility of being correlated with default-free interest rates. The parameters of the process are estimated for investment-grade corporate bonds including AM. AA, A. and BBB. Empirical results show that the default risk is negatively correlated with default-free interest rates and confirm that the default risk is greater for lower grades. In addition, the estimated model successfully produces the term structures of credit spreads for corporate bonds and show that the credit spreads for lower grade bonds are more steeply sloped than those for higher grade bonds. These results show that Duffee's model can reasonably account for the observed corporate bond prices in the Korean bond market.


2011 ◽  
Vol 14 (02) ◽  
pp. 221-238 ◽  
Author(s):  
GUGLIELMO D'AMICO ◽  
JACQUES JANSSEN ◽  
RAIMONDO MANCA

In this paper, we present a model to describe the evolution of the yield spread by considering the rating evaluation as the determinant of credit spreads. The underlying rating migration process is assumed to be a non-homogeneous discrete time semi-Markov process. We calculate the total sum of mean basis points paid within any given time interval. From this information we show how it is possible to extract the time evolution of expected interest rates and discount factors.


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