Impact of Macroeconomic Variables on Exchange Rate Uncertain

2021 ◽  
Vol 17 (3) ◽  
pp. 47-55
Author(s):  
Jane Kaboro ◽  
Naftaly Mose
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Monetary Union ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Exchange Rate Uncertainty ◽  
Member States ◽  
East African Community ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
Negative Effect

Abstract Macroeconomic convergence is critical for member states to achieve the level of harmonization required for establishing a stable and resilient monetary union. The East African Community (EAC) member states, therefore, established set targets for macroeconomic convergence, intending to eliminate exchange rate uncertainty within the bloc and reduce the costs of the monetary union. However, recent empirical studies indicate that the rate of convergence of the member states to the set macroeconomic targets has been very slow, resulting in high exchange rate uncertainty within the region. It is against this backdrop that this research was conceptualized to examine the influence of convergence in macroeconomic variables on the exchange rate uncertainty of EAC states using secondary panel data. The study made use of standard deviation and the Levin Lin Chu (LLC) test to determine convergence and unit root respectively. The panel ordinary least squares (OLS) regression findings showed that all the explanatory variables had a negatively significant effect on exchange rate uncertainty. This implies that convergence in macroeconomic variables among the member countries slows exchange rate uncertainty. Thus, policy should be made towards controlling this negative effect resulting from macroeconomic variables as East Africa bids for monetary union.

Exchange Rates and the Effectiveness of Actual and Oral Official Interventions: A Survey on Findings, Issues and Policy Implications

2010 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 1850213 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nevin Cavusoglu
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Consistent Finding ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
Monetary Authorities ◽  
Exchange Rate Movements ◽  
Exchange Markets

Monetary authorities of many open economies have been regularly intervening in foreign exchange markets for years to limit volatility in exchange rates and/or push exchange rates back to some desired level. Such interventions have taken the form of actual and oral official interventions. Review of studies investigating the effectiveness of interventions reveals one major issue, related to the assumption that interventions are mostly sterilized. This assumption might lead to unreliable results when changes in interest rates and interventions are both used as explanatory variables for exchange rates. One major consistent finding is that intervention has a significant but short-lasting effect on exchange rates. Studies have reached this conclusion by investigating whether intervention has been effective in turning around the exchange rate over the few days, weeks or months following intervention(s). Only a few studies have investigated and provided evidence that intervention has been effective in limiting long swings in exchange rates. Studies testing for the effectiveness of interventions specifically through the signaling channel also provide evidence on the importance of macroeconomic variables for exchange rates. The significance of official intervention and official communication for exchange rate movements combined with the importance of macroeconomic variables for exchange rates provide a role for official intervention and parity announcement to influence exchange rate movements and limit the magnitude of exchange rate swings.

scholarly journals ANALISIS PENGARUH FAKTOR VARIABEL MAKROEKONOMI TERHADAP JAKARTA ISLAMIC INDEX (JII) PERIODE 2010 – 2013

2014 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Herni Ali
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Regression Models ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Multiple Regression Models ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Positive Effect

The aim of this study is examining the relationship between cointergration and causality levels of Exchange Rate, GDP, BI interest rates and inflation on Islamic Capital Markets. The data used in this study is a quantitative secondary data in the form of time series of the period January 2010 to December 2013. The test were conducted with the approach of multiple regression models with variable index research JII (Y), the exchange rate (X1), GDP (X2) , BI rate (X3) and inflation (X4) as for hypothesis testing performed using SPSS statistical software. From the results obtained by testing the hypothesis that: a positive effect on the exchange rate, positive effect on GDP, interest harga sewa rates BI negative effect and inflation positive effect on JII. Simultanious testing into four macroeconomic variables affect the JII.DOI: 10.15408/sjie.v3i2.2061   

Green Public Procurement Initiatives in East African Community (EAC)

2019 ◽  
pp. 148-162
Author(s):  
Rajesh Kumar Shakya
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Union ◽  
Financial Management ◽  
Public Procurement ◽  
East African ◽  
Member States ◽  
East African Community ◽  
Public Financial Management ◽  
African Community ◽  
Green Public Procurement ◽  
Procurement Reform

This chapter focuses on the green public procurement initiatives taken by the countries in the East Africa. The East African Community (EAC) Head of States signed the East African Monetary Protocol Union (EMPU) protocol on November 30, 2013. One of the key ingredients in having a sustainable monetary union is to harmonize public financial management systems amongst the EAC Partner States and the EAMU protocol has referred the provision of harmonization of public procurement policies. The first stakeholder' workshop on the harmonization of public financial management standards in line with the EAC Monetary Union Protocol held during March 14-17, 2014 in Nairobi, Kenya identified green public procurement (GPP) strategy as one of the key policy areas requiring development and harmonization across the member states. This initiative should also be viewed in the context of the Member States' Public Procurement Reform Initiatives, which contains a suite of measures in relation to public procurement. Reform of the public procurement function is, and remains, driven by the need to obtain maximum value for public money in procuring works, supplies, and services.

ERM II

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ulla Neergaard
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Monetary Union ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Economic And Monetary Union ◽  
Convergence Criteria ◽  
Member States ◽  
The Third ◽  
Exchange Rate Mechanism ◽  
Third Phase ◽  
Rate Mechanism

From the very beginning, an essential cornerstone of the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) has been the European Exchange Rate Mechanism II (ERM II). It has been in force since 1 January 1999, ie from the initiation of the third phase of the EMU. Its overall purpose is to link currencies of Member States outside the euro area to the euro. Its importance lies in the fact that aspiring Member States must first join the mechanism for at least two years before being admitted as members of the euro area, as ERM II ‘membership’ is one of the four convergence criteria, which are required to be fulfilled for a Member State’s eventual adoption of the euro.

scholarly journals THE ROLE OF ASEAN EXCHANGE RATE UNIT (AERU) FOR ASEAN-5 MONETARY INTEGRATION: AN OPTIMUM CURRENCY AREA CRITERIA

2013 ◽  
Vol 15 (3) ◽  
pp. 59-88
Author(s):  
Dimas Bagus Wiranata Kusuma ◽  
Syed Mohammed Abud Ashif ◽  
Ali Musa Harahap ◽  
Muhammad Alam Omarsyah
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Monetary Union ◽  
Convergence Theory ◽  
Monetary Integration ◽  
Optimum Currency Area ◽  
Member States ◽  
Currency Area ◽  
National Currencies ◽  
Optimum Currency

The idea for regional monetary integration is grounded by the process of convergence theory within the member states. The paper analyses the possibility of monetary union in ASEAN-5 countries, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Singapore. In terms of volatility, by using nominal deviation indicator assessment, the ASEAN-5 currencies are suggested to peg their national currencies into Yuan since it empirically brings the lowest level of volatility, both during normal and crisis periods. Therefore, Yuan could be proposed as the anchor currency for ASEAN-5 countries. Moreover, valuing the AERU in terms of a weighed average of Yuan is important to determine which countries are considered to be an Optimum Currency Area (OCA). The results statistically suggest that all ASEAN-5 countries could be grouped as OCA according to exchange rate stability criterion.Keywords : Optimum Currency Area, AERU, ASEAN-5, Exchange Rate StabilityJEL Classification : D81, E52, F15, F36

scholarly journals Pengaruh Variabel Makroekonomi Terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (Studi pada Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan di Bursa Efek Indonesia Periode 2014-2018)

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 75
Author(s):  
Rina R. Mamahit ◽  
Tinneke M. Tumbel ◽  
Joanne V. Mangindaan
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Composite Index ◽  
Multiple Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
The Exchange Rate

This research aims to determine whether the macroeconomic variables i.e., the exchange rate, inflation and BI rate simultaneously and partially influence Indonesia Composite Index at The Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX). The approach in this study is a quantitative method, using multiple linear regression analysis. The data used are time series data from January 2014 until December 2018. The result indicates that exchange rates, inflation and BI together have a significant impact to Indonesia Composite Index. Individually, only the BI rate variable has a significant effect and has a negative effect to Indonesia Composite Index. The exchange rate and inflation had no significant effect to Indonesia Composite Index.

scholarly journals Analysis of Effect of Capital Inflow Volatility and Macroeconomic Variables on Rupiah Exchange Rate

2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-7
Author(s):  
Adnan Muhammad Feisal ◽  
Lesta Karolina Br. Sebayang
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Capital Inflow ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Macroeconomic Variable ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Foreign Reserve ◽  
Negative Effect

The purpose of this research is to measure the effect of the capital inflow volatility on the rupiah exchange rate, to measure the effect of macroeconomic variables on the rupiah exchange rate, and to measure the response of capital inflow shocks and macroeconomic variables on the rupiah exchange rate. The data used is in the form of quarterly time series data from 2002:4-2014:4, which is derived from the data of Bank Indonesia. The model used in this research is the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The results show that: (1) In the short-term capital inflow has the positive and significant effect on the rupiah exchange rate, while in the long-term it does not have the significant effect on the rupiah exchange rate. (2) Macroeconomic variable that has the positive and significant effect on the rupiah exchange rate in the short-term is the capital inflow variable. In the long-term the macroeconomic variable that has the positive and significant effect on the rupiah exchange rate is the foreign exchange reserves variable. (3) Results of IRF, the response of the rupiah exchange rate of the capital inflow shocks indicates that an increase in capital inflow has effect on the strengthening of the rupiah exchange rate. The shocks on the foreign reserve variable have the positive effect on the rupiah exchange rate, and the shocks on the inflation variable have the negative effect on the rupiah exchange rate.

scholarly journals MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES AND VOLUME OF TRANSACTIONS ON TEHRAN STOCK EXCHANGE

2021 ◽  
Vol 33 (2) ◽  
pp. 163-173
Author(s):  
Farzaneh Haghighat Nia ◽  
Naser Shams Gharneh
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Least Squares ◽  
Analytical Method ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Least Squares Method ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares Method

This paper examines the relationship between the volume of transactions and macroeconomic variables on the Tehran Stock Exchange. We are collect data for variables such as liquidity, inflation, exchange rate, the total value of imports and GDP for ten years period of 2009-2019. For analysis of data, have been used regression analytical method and ordinary least squares method (OLS) model. The results indicate that there are relationships between the macroeconomic variables of liquidity, inflation rate, and GDP with the volume of transactions. Therefore, the relationship between the volume of transactions with liquidity and GDP is positive and significant and with inflation is negative.

Factors Affecting Foreign Direct Investment: The Afghanistan Case

2021 ◽  
Vol 39 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mehmet Eryigit ◽  
Abdul Qayum Shafaq
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Foreign Direct Investments ◽  
Significant Positive Effect ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Export Volume ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Positive Effect

This study examined the factors affecting foreign direct investments (FDI) for the case of Afghanistan. Generally, the literature has focused on the factors affecting direct investments towards developing and underdeveloped countries. The primary purpose of this study is to identify the factors affecting FDI inflow to Afghanistan. Different from previous studies, this study examined the effects of the following factors; globalization indices, gross domestic product, export volume, import volume, and exchange rate (USD/AFN) of Afghani. The factors were determined based on a review of the literature. Regarding the interaction across variables, three different regression models were tested to examine the effects of those factors on FDI inflows to Afghanistan. Ordinary Least Squares estimation was employed. According to the results of the integrated model (the model that covers all exploratory variables), globalization has a statistically significant positive effect on FDI, whereas the gross domestic product (GDP) has a statistically significant negative effect on FDI. When we test the effect of GDP and exchange rate (EXC) jointly on FDI, we find the statistically significant positive effect of those variables on FDI. The results of this study recommend the economy politicians in Afghanistan implement exchange rate policies that promote the FDI and to increase the inflowing of FDI into the country.

Factors Affecting Foreign Direct Investment: The Afghanistan Case

2020 ◽  
Vol 39 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mehmet Eryigit ◽  
Abdul Qayum Shafaq
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Foreign Direct Investments ◽  
Significant Positive Effect ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Export Volume ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Positive Effect

This study examined the factors affecting foreign direct investments (FDI) for the case of Afghanistan. Generally, the literature has focused on the factors affecting direct investments towards developing and underdeveloped countries. The primary purpose of this study is to identify the factors affecting FDI inflow to Afghanistan. Different from previous studies, this study examined the effects of the following factors; globalization indices, gross domestic product, export volume, import volume, and exchange rate (USD/AFN) of Afghani. The factors were determined based on a review of the literature. Regarding the interaction across variables, three different regression models were tested to examine the effects of those factors on FDI inflows to Afghanistan. Ordinary Least Squares estimation was employed. According to the results of the integrated model (the model that covers all exploratory variables), globalization has a statistically significant positive effect on FDI, whereas the gross domestic product (GDP) has a statistically significant negative effect on FDI. When we test the effect of GDP and exchange rate (EXC) jointly on FDI, we find the statistically significant positive effect of those variables on FDI. The results of this study recommend the economy politicians in Afghanistan implement exchange rate policies that promote the FDI and to increase the inflowing of FDI into the country.

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