scholarly journals The Possibilities and Limitations of Geostatistical Methods in Real Estate Market Analyses

2014 ◽  
Vol 22 (3) ◽  
pp. 54-62 ◽  
Author(s):  
Radosław Cellmer
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Traditional Approach ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Land Value ◽  
Spatial Correlations ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
Geostatistical Methods ◽  
Transaction Prices ◽  
Local Character ◽  
Regionalized Variables

Abstract In the traditional approach, geostatistical modeling involves analyses of the spatial structure of regionalized data, as well as estimations and simulations that rely on kriging methods. Geostatistical methods can complement traditional statistical models of property transaction prices, and when combined with those models, they offer a comprehensive tool for spatial analysis that is used in the process of developing land value maps. Transaction prices are characterized by mutual spatial correlations and can be considered as regionalized variables. They can also be regarded as random variables that have a local character and a specific probability distribution. This study explores the possibilities of applying geostatistical methods in spatial modeling of the prices of undeveloped land, as well as the limitations associated with those methods and the imperfect nature of the real estate market. The results are discussed based on examples, and they cover both the modeling process and the generated land value maps.

scholarly journals Evaluation of the Applicability of Statistical Methods in Studies on Price Dynamics on the Real Estate Market

2013 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
pp. 49-58 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sebastian Kokot ◽  
Marcin Bas
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Traditional Approach ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Price Dynamics ◽  
The Real ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
Transaction Prices ◽  
Time Period ◽  
The Real Estate Market ◽  
Real Estate Prices

Abstract The specific character of the real estate market is the reason why observations of transaction prices seen as statistical variables are taken in a non-standard way. In the traditional approach each time period or specific moments of time are attributed with one observation of a studied variable per one object. In the case of the real estate market, this is not possible since transactions relate to different objects, i.e., properties, and occur at irregular, or even random, moments. This is why traditional methods used to examine the dynamics of economic phenomena must be adapted to specific conditions on the real estate market. Keeping that in mind, the aim of this paper is to adapt classical statistical examination methods of dynamics to specific conditions of the real estate market followed by the actual examination of the dynamics of real estate prices in three sub-segments of the housing market in Szczecin. On its basis, the authors evaluate various methods of examining real estate price dynamics in terms of their applicability in real estate appraisal procedures and, in a broader perspective, present characteristic phenomena that can be observed on the real estate market.

scholarly journals The Use of Indicator Kriging for Analyzing Prices in the Real Estate Market

2016 ◽  
Vol 24 (4) ◽  
pp. 5-15
Author(s):  
Katarzyna Kobylińska ◽  
Radosław Cellmer
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Spatial Information ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Indicator Kriging ◽  
Geostatistical Simulation ◽  
The Real ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
Geostatistical Methods ◽  
Transaction Prices ◽  
The Real Estate Market

Abstract The patterns and relations between real estate prices and the factors which shape them can be presented, among others, in the form of traditional statistical models, as well as by means of geostatistical methods. In the case of research involving the diagnosis and prediction of transaction prices, the key role is played by the spatial aspect, hence the particular significance of geostatistical methods using spatial information. The main goal of the conducted research is to determine the probability of the occurrence of a price in a given location in space by means of geostatistical simulation - indicator kriging. Indicator kriging does not use the entirety of information included in a dataset, and can, therefore, be useful in situations when the assumptions involving the spatial stationarity of the examined phenomenon are not fulfilled by an entire dataset, but are fulfilled by a certain part of the set. The maps of the probability with which a regionalized variable (price) takes on particular values, limited by arbitrarily selected cutoff values, were prepared by means of indicator kriging. An alternative approach to the preparation of price probability maps is the determination of the spatial distribution of areas in which, with the assumed probability, the value of the price falls within the predetermined ranges. The paper presents both the essence as well as a theoretical description of the geostatistical simulation of a transaction on the real estate market, as well as the results of an experiment involving the transaction prices of real properties located in the north-western part of the city of Olsztyn. The result of the research is a set of virtual information about the places in which the transactions have occurred and about the prices of real estate, constituting a reflection of the market processes which may take place in the near future.

scholarly journals Use of Statistical Models for Simulating Transactions on the Real Estate Market

2015 ◽  
Vol 23 (2) ◽  
pp. 102-111 ◽  
Author(s):  
Radosław Cellmer ◽  
Katarzyna Szczepankowska
Keyword(s):  
Probability Distribution ◽  
Real Estate ◽  
Statistical Models ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
The Real ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
Transaction Prices ◽  
The Real Estate Market ◽  
Real Estate Prices

Abstract The regularities and relations between real estate prices and the factors that shape them may be presented in the form of statistical models, thanks to which the diagnosis and prediction of prices is possible. A formal description of empirical observation presented in the form of regressive models also offers a possibility for creating certain phenomena in a virtual dimension. Market phenomena cannot be fully described with the use of determinist models, which clarify only a part of price variation. The predicted price is, in this situation, a special case of implementing a random function. Assuming that other implementations are also possible, regressive models may constitute a basis for simulation, which results in the procurement of a future image of the market. Simulation may refer both to real estate prices and transaction prices. The basis for price simulation may be familiarity with the structure of the analyzed market data. Assuming that this structure has a static character, simulation of real estate prices is performed on the basis of familiarity with the probability distribution and a generator of random numbers. The basis for price simulation is familiarity with model parameters and probability distribution of the random factor. The study presents the core and theoretical description of a transaction simulation on the real estate market, as well as the results of an experiment regarding transaction prices of office real estate located within the area of the city of Olsztyn. The result of the study is a collection of virtual real properties with known features and simulated prices, constituting a reflection of market processes which may take place in the near future. Comparison between the simulated characteristic and actual transactions in turn allows the correctness of the description of reality by the model to be verified.

scholarly journals Assessing the Possibility of Implementing Tools of Technical Analysys for Real Estate Market Analysis

2016 ◽  
Vol 24 (2) ◽  
pp. 85-96
Author(s):  
Justyna Brzezicka
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Capital Market ◽  
Traditional Approach ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Technical Analysis ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
The Real ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
The Real Estate Market ◽  
The Capital Market

Abstract Technical analysis (TA) and its different aspects are widely used to study the capital market. In the traditional approach, this analysis is used to determine the probability of changes in current rates on the basis of their past changes, accounting for factors which had, have or may have an influence on shaping the supply and demand of a given asset. In the practical sense, TA is a set of techniques used for assessing the value of an asset based on the analysis of the asset's trajectories as well as statistical tools. The work assumes three research objectives: 1) a review of tools applied in technical analysis, 2) an attempt at implementing selected tools of technical analysis for analyzing the real estate market (REM), 3) an assessment of the possibilities of implementing selected tools for assessing the real estate market on the example of the Olsztyn residential real estate market. The research hypothesis is a presumption regarding the possibility of implementing tools used in traditional technical analysis for the analysis of the real estate market accounting for the natural limitations and specifics of the market. The work extends scientific achievements in the part regarding the methods and tools of analyzing the real estate market as well as the connections between the real estate market and the capital market.

scholarly journals Diversified Price Dynamics in some Sub-Segments of the Housing Market

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 162-173
Author(s):  
Sebastian G. Kokot
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Quality Of Data ◽  
The Real ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
Transaction Prices ◽  
The Real Estate Market ◽  
Price Movements

Abstract The observation of price movements on the real estate market is an extremely difficult task as we have to face problems belonging to two spheres. The first of them is the specific nature of real estate as marketable objects and of the real estate market itself. The second one is the character and quality of data on real estate transaction prices. In this article the author, based on an empirical study, attempts to prove that even in a single segment of a local real estate market the prices in individual sub-segments can fluctuate with different intensity. The range of price movements can be so vast that it seems pointless to apply a single averaged price index for the whole segment, and usually that is what analysts do.

scholarly journals RATING METHODOLOGY FOR REAL ESTATE MARKETS – POLAND CASE STUDY

2014 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 198-212 ◽  
Author(s):  
Malgorzata Renigier-Biłozor ◽  
Radoslaw Wisniewski ◽  
Arturas Kaklauskas ◽  
Andrzej Biłozor
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Real Estate ◽  
National Economy ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Market Potential ◽  
Real Estate Markets ◽  
The Real ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
Local Character ◽  
The Real Estate Market

The development of the real estate market is conditioned by a variety of endogenous and exogenous factors. Selected factors determine the local character of the real estate market, whereas others contribute to its classification as one of the main branches of the national economy. Rapid economic growth and the search for new investment opportunities have turned the real estate market into a highly competitive arena where various players carry out diverse investment strategies. Investors search for similarities that would enable them to develop risk minimizing strategies. Ratings are a modern tool that can be deployed in analyses and predictions of real estate market potential. This paper proposes a methodology for developing real estate market ratings, and it identifies the types of information and factors which affect decision-making on real estate markets. The following research hypotheses are formulated and tested in the article: 1) a real estate market can be rated in view of its significance for the local and national economy, 2) real estate market ratings support market participants in the decision-making process.

scholarly journals The Use of the Geographically Weighted Regression for the Real Estate Market Analysis

2012 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 19-32 ◽  
Author(s):  
Radosław Cellmer
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Geographically Weighted Regression ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Weighted Regression ◽  
The Real ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
Transaction Prices ◽  
The Real Estate Market ◽  
Market Transaction ◽  
Grading Scale

Abstract The article presents a method for developing geographically weighted regression models for analyzing real estate market transaction prices and evaluating the effect of selected property attributes on the prices and value of real estate. The property attributes were evaluated on a grading scale to determine the relative (percentage) indicators characterizing the relationships on the real estate market. The market data were analyzed to evaluate the influence of infrastructure availability on the prices of land in Olsztyn. The results were used to assess the effect of every utility service on the property transaction prices.

scholarly journals Harnessing the Real Estate Market for Equitable Affordable Housing Provision through Land Value Capture: Insights from San Francisco City, California

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (13) ◽  
pp. 3649 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nzau ◽  
Trillo
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
San Francisco ◽  
Affordable Housing ◽  
Social Inclusion ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Land Value ◽  
Value Capture ◽  
The Real ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
The Real Estate Market

Affordable housing remains a serious problem in many countries. Even as the housing affordability crisis deepens, most cities continue to exhibit robust real estate markets with high property prices. The low-income and poor households are unable to access affordable housing and remain excluded. This paper draws from empirical research conducted in the city of San Francisco and focuses on the application of Land Value Capture (LVC) through increased Inclusionary Housing (IH) requirements after plan changes that increased density potential in San Francisco’s Eastern Neighbourhoods to evaluate its effects on the goals of increasing both affordable housing and social inclusion. Findings reveal that the increased inclusionary requirements used as LVC mechanism enabled 76.2% of all the affordable housing units produced in the Eastern Neighbourhoods to be produced by market-rate developers in 2011–2015 as compared to the rest of San Francisco, where 35.5% of the affordable units were produced from the market through inclusionary policy during the same period. The study demonstrates that upzoning underutilised land coupled with a well-planned LVC mechanism can help harness the strength of the real estate market and increase both affordable housing production and social inclusion.

scholarly journals Urban Greenery as a Component of Real Estate Value

2016 ◽  
Vol 24 (4) ◽  
pp. 79-87 ◽  
Author(s):  
Agnieszka Szczepańska ◽  
Iwona Krzywnicka ◽  
Grzegorz Lemański
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Urban Environments ◽  
Market Prices ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
Transaction Prices ◽  
Urban Greenery ◽  
The Real Estate Market ◽  
Green Areas ◽  
Questionnaire Studies

Abstract Due to the specific characteristics of cities, such as the intensity of the use of space, the supply of green areas is limited. These areas are subjected to constant pressure (demand for new transportation or construction functions), which usually results in their reduction. As a consequence of this, green areas have become a limited asset in urban environments. City dwellers, seeking a high quality of life in the urban environment, pay attention to the proximity of greenery to their place of residence. This is, therefore, a factor that greatly influences market prices of residential real estate. In the study, the dependency of transaction prices of residential premises on the vicinity of urban greenery was subjected to analysis. Additionally, questionnaire studies were conducted with respect to the evaluation of the significance of environmental factors when choosing a place to live, which translates over to the decisions made by consumers on the real estate market.

Assessment of rational land use based on capitalization ratio: methodological approach

2021 ◽  
pp. 764-769
Author(s):  
V.I. Svetlakov
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Real Estate ◽  
Methodological Approach ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Land Value ◽  
Resource Model ◽  
The Real ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
The Real Estate Market

The article provides a methodological approach to land value calculation and determination of the capitalization ratios. Based on the analysis of methods for land assessment, it is proposed to calculate the capitalization ratio by solving a system consisting of seven equations characterizing the state of the real estate market. The areas of possible use of the approach and the need to develop a resource model for the decomposition of real estate objects are substantiated in this paper.

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