scholarly journals Designing alternative scenarios for the provincial region development based on the scenario planning methodology

2021 ◽  
Vol 19 (12) ◽  
pp. 2237-2261
Author(s):  
Ol’ga S. BELOKUR ◽  
Veronika Yu. MASLIKHINA ◽  
Galina S. TSVETKOVA
Keyword(s):  
Policy Making ◽  
Systems Approach ◽  
Scenario Planning ◽  
Economic Systems ◽  
Planning Techniques ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Planning Algorithm ◽  
Alternative Scenarios ◽  
Planning Methodology ◽  
Key Industries

Subject. This article considers the issues of application of scenario planning techniques in the process of constructing alternative scenarios for the development of spatial socio-economic systems in the context of changes, complexity, and uncertainty. Objectives. The article aims to form a scenario planning algorithm for spatial socio-economic systems and its implementation in relation to the Mari El Republic. Methods. For the study, we used the systems approach and foresight techniques. Results. The article presents four alternative scenarios for the development of the provincial region: intensive, technological, moderately technological and pessimistic. The article presents four alternative scenarios for the development of the provincial region, namely, the intensive, technological, moderate technological, and worst-case ones. Conclusions and Relevance. The technological scenario for the provincial region’s development seems to be the most likely. It assumes moderately favorable prospects for attracting investment, which can stimulate the development of regional key industries. The proposed alternative scenarios can serve as a basis for the policy making by regional and municipal authorities.

Scenario planning for the development of spatial economic and social systems: Methodological approaches

2020 ◽  
Vol 18 (10) ◽  
pp. 1839-1868
Author(s):  
V.Yu. Maslikhina
Keyword(s):  
Regional Planning ◽  
Social Systems ◽  
Hybrid Approach ◽  
Scenario Planning ◽  
Theory And Practice ◽  
Economic Systems ◽  
Russian Regions ◽  
Analysis And Synthesis ◽  
Planning Algorithm ◽  
Methodological Approaches

Subject. This article reviews and systematizes methodological approaches to generate scenarios and develop a scenario planning algorithm in relation to spatial socio-economic systems. Objectives. The article aims to analyze and classify scenarios and algorithms of scenario planning, as well as choose and justify an approach to scenario planning of the development of spatial socio-economic systems. Methods. For the study, I used the methods of analysis and synthesis, induction and deduction, comparison, and classification. Results. The article clarifies the definitions of Scenario and Scenario Planning and categorizes scenarios according to different criteria. It reveals the gap between the theory and practice of scenario planning in Russian regions. The article also offers certain recommendations on the use of scenarios in regional planning. Conclusions. The article concludes that the hybrid approach in scenario planning of the development of spatial socio-economic systems (countries, regions, cities, municipalities) is more preferable than the exploratory or normative ones.

Assessing the Quality of Management of Transformation Processes in Economic Systems

2020 ◽  
Vol 26 (9) ◽  
pp. 952-956
Author(s):  
M. V. Malyshkina ◽  
M. V. Miroslavskaya
Keyword(s):  
Systems Approach ◽  
Mutual Influence ◽  
Organizational Transformation ◽  
Quality Criterion ◽  
Economic Transformation ◽  
Economic Systems ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
Management Actions ◽  
Transformation Processes

Aim. The presented study aims to develop the methodology for assessing the quality of management of organizational transformation processes. Tasks. To achieve the set aim, the authors solve the following problems: determine the essence and content of socio-economic transformation, formulate quality assurance principles for the management of transformation processes, draw attention to the problem of selecting a unified quality criterion for the management of organizational transformation processes. Methods. This study uses general scientific methods of cognition, including analysis and synthesis. It also applies a systems approach to identify the major problems of assessing the quality of management of transformation processes, including the problem of selecting a unified quality criterion for the management of transformation processes and formulating the principles of ensuring the quality of management of transformation processes. Results. The global problem of managing transformation processes in the economic system consists in the complexity of the managed processes, which increases due to the multidimensionality, mutual influence, and the resulting uncertainty of interactions between the elements of the system. It is concluded that the methodology for assessing the quality of management of transformation processes is based on the principle of integrating separate measures to improve the quality of management of system elements into a single system of management actions and the principle of ensuring that management actions are primarily aimed at preventing possible negative consequences of the transformation of economic systems, i.e. reducing the potential impact of unfavorable events and their consequences. To assess the effectiveness of targeted management actions and productive actions aimed at organizing, controlling, and guiding the transformation process, the authors actualize the problem of selecting an adequate quality criterion for the management of transformation processes in economic systems and put forward a hypothesis about a possible unified criterion of management quality. Conclusions. The principle of integrating separate measures to improve the quality of management of system elements and the principle of ensuring that management actions are aimed at preventing possible negative consequences lie at the core of the methodology for assessing the quality of management of transformation processes in economic systems. The quality assessment methodology should be developed in the direction of finding a unified quality criterion for managing transformation processes in economic systems.

Transformation of global economic systems as a conseguence of the pandemic COVID-19

2020 ◽  
pp. 4-14
Author(s):  
Nikolay Vladimirovich Novichkov ◽  
Ekaterina Andreevna Savchenko ◽  
Alexandra Vladimirovna Novichkova
Keyword(s):  
Global Economy ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Systems Approach ◽  
Economic Systems ◽  
Research Subject ◽  
Food Markets ◽  
Economic Relations ◽  
Systems Research ◽  
Very High

The article reveals the features of the transformation of global economic systems caused by the coronavirus pandemic. The nature, namely, transformational changes, the basic characteristic of which is the acquisition of new properties and manifestations, has been substantiated. Separately, attention is focused on the fact that transformational changes will be of a long-term nature, which will be observed even after overcoming the coronavirus pandemic. The relevance of this direction seems to be very high, since changes in the global economic world will be extremely signifi cant. The article also identifi es some areas of transformational changes (regionalism, new content of economic systems, their restructuring, the emergence of online solutions, etc.). Separately, the work analyzes the consequences of transformation in a number of signifi cant global economic systems: global fi nance, tourism, transport, entertainment industry, food markets, migration fl ows, etc. In addition, the need to search for new content in the functioning and development of international economic associations is indicated. The purpose of the study is to substantiate the directions and consequences of the transformation of global economic systems. The research tasks are reduced to substantiating the content of global economic systems; identifying areas of general transformational changes in the world economy; the designation of the directions and consequences of the transformation of certain global industries, markets, economic processes. Research subject: global economic relations. Research object: global economic systems. Research methods: systems approach, statistical method, modeling method. Research results. The main types of global economic systems are formulated; the directions of transformation of global economic systems are revealed; the global economic systems in which the transformational changes have occurred most clearly and signifi cantly; formulated possible contours of the functioning and development of global economic systems after the end of the coronavirus epidemic; directions that require special attention in the development of the global economy are proposed.

scholarly journals Managing the survivor syndrome as scenario planning methodology … and it matters!

2019 ◽  
Vol 68 (4) ◽  
pp. 838-854
Author(s):  
Hong T.M. Bui ◽  
Vinh Sum Chau ◽  
Jacqueline Cox
Keyword(s):  
Organizational Performance ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Scenario Planning ◽  
Structured Interviews ◽  
Open Communication ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Survivor Syndrome ◽  
The Public ◽  
Planning Methods ◽  
Planning Methodology

PurposeThe importance of foresight is discussed in relation to why traditional scenario planning methodology is problematic at achieving it. The “survivor syndrome” is borrowed from the human resources literature and presented as a metaphor for foresight to illustrate how better “scenarios” can be achieved by understanding the syndrome better. A practice perspective is given on the use of a seven-theme framework as a method of interviewing survivors. The paper aims to discuss this issue.Design/methodology/approachThe paper draws from an empirical research that took place during the 2008 global financial crisis to illustrate the richness of the insights that would otherwise not be obtainable through scenario planning methods that do not involve “survivors.” In that research, semi-structured interviews were employed with key personnel at multiple levels of one private and one public organization that had undergone a redundancy process at the time of the crisis to explore its effect on the remaining workforce.FindingsThe “survivor syndrome” itself would be minimized if managers consider the feelings of survivors with more open communication. Survivors in private firms were found generally to experience anxiety, but are more likely to remain more motivated, than their counterparts in the public sector. These detailed insights create more accurate “scenarios” in scenario planning exercises.Originality/valueOrganizational performance can be better enhanced if the survivor syndrome can be better managed. In turn, scenario planning, as a form of organizational foresight, is better practiced through managing the survivor syndrome. Scenario planning methodology has proliferated well in the human resource management literature.

scholarly journals Viable strategies in volatile times

2009 ◽  
Vol 55 (No. 5) ◽  
pp. 229-232
Author(s):  
I. Tichá
Keyword(s):  
Cost Saving ◽  
Scenario Planning ◽  
Economic Downturn ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Planning Techniques ◽  
Term Survival ◽  
Consulting Firms ◽  
Strategic Options ◽  
Practical Implications ◽  
Short Term Survival

The article aims at the description and assessment of strategic options for companies which have necessary resources to take the advantage of the current economic downturn. The theoretical framework is based on two predominant approaches to competitive advantage and the practical implications for actions to be adopted are derived from the recommendations published recently by the leading consulting firms. While quick fixes ensuring a short-term survival (mostly financially based cost-saving measures) are an essential first step, a longer-term success lies in the effective adoption of the scenario-planning techniques, active competitors intelligence and a proactive attitude to restructuring through a combination of mergers, acquisitions and divestment decisions.

Managing dynamic business environments: India’s future automotive industry

2014 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 309-331
Author(s):  
Christian Kuklinski ◽  
Roger Moser ◽  
Thomas Callarman
Keyword(s):  
Information Processing ◽  
Automotive Industry ◽  
Expert Panel ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Scenario Planning ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Business Environments ◽  
Information Processing Perspective ◽  
Planning Methodology ◽  
Political Economic

Purpose – This paper aims to examine from an information processing perspective how Delphi-based analyses can be used to overcome some challenges of dynamic business environments in emerging markets. Design/methodology/approach – Delphi-based, future-oriented approach utilizing scenario planning methodology based on real-time expert-panel data. Findings – Delphi-based analyses can indeed serve as an information processing aid to reduce uncertainty and equivocality in an emerging market. Originality/value – A multistage analysis approach integrating the political, economic, socio-cultural and technological-stakeholder framework to support and better structure managers’ information processing in an emerging market.

Tackling Uncertainty in US Local Climate Adaptation Planning

2018 ◽  
Vol 40 (4) ◽  
pp. 416-431 ◽  
Author(s):  
Missy Stults ◽  
Larissa Larsen
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Adaptation ◽  
Scenario Planning ◽  
Adaptation Planning ◽  
Planning Techniques ◽  
Local Climate ◽  
Climate Change Uncertainty ◽  
Climate Adaptation Planning ◽  
Robust Strategies

Climate adaptation presents some new forms of planning uncertainty. We identified thirteen types of climate change uncertainty and grouped these into four categories. Next, we summarized eleven planning techniques, noting that only six of these techniques reflect an adapt and monitor approach that actively engages uncertainty. We then evaluated the types of uncertainty and planning techniques identified in forty-four US local climate adaptation plans. We found no communities used scenario planning or robust strategies despite the emphasis placed on these techniques in the literature.

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