Feasibility analysis of the Z-score model in the financial crisis early-warning system of manufacturing listed companies

The article takes listed companies as research samples. Firstly, it selects 36 ST or *ST companies listed in Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchange Market, who received special treatment during 2007 to 2009 for the first time and it also chooses another 36 normal companies as paired ones. Then, after using Factor analysis for identifying indexes, the paper go on with utilizing logistic to structure a financial long-term warning model. To verify the effectiveness of the model, the paper selects another 12 financial crisis companies and 12 financial fit companies to test. The results come out to show that establishing an effective long-term financial early-warning system helps enterprises to avoid financial crisis.

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Network-based Early Warning System to Predict Financial Crisis

SSRN Electronic Journal ◽

10.2139/ssrn.3314820 ◽

2019 ◽

Author(s):

Hossein Dastkhan

Keyword(s):

Financial Crisis ◽

Early Warning ◽

Early Warning System ◽

Warning System

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Establishment of a Financial Crisis Early Warning System for Domestic Listed Companies Based on Three Decision Tree Models

Mathematical Problems in Engineering ◽

10.1155/2020/8036154 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 2020 ◽

pp. 1-7

Author(s):

Gang Wang ◽

Keming Wang ◽

Yingying Zhou ◽

Xiaoyan Mo ◽

Weilin Xiao

Keyword(s):

Financial Crisis ◽

Decision Tree ◽

Early Warning ◽

Financial Management ◽

Early Warning System ◽

Comprehensive Evaluation ◽

Warning System ◽

Predictive Ability ◽

Tree Models ◽

The Impact

The financial crisis is a realistic problem that the general enterprise must encounter in the process of financial management. Due to the impact of the COVID-19 and the Sino-US trade war, domestic companies with unsound financial conditions are at risk of shutdowns and bankruptcies. Therefore, it is urgently needed to study the financial warning of enterprises. In this study, three decision tree models are used to establish the financial crisis early warning system. These three decision tree models include C50, CART, and random forest decision trees. In addition, the ROC curve was used for comprehensive evaluation of the accuracy analysis of the model to confirm the predictive ability of each model. This result can provide reference for domestic financial departments and provide financial management basis for the investing public.

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Research on Index Measurement Model of Early-Warning for Listed Companies in Shipbuilding Industry

Applied Mechanics and Materials ◽

10.4028/www.scientific.net/amm.10-12.18 ◽

2007 ◽

Vol 10-12 ◽

pp. 18-22

Author(s):

X.Z. Wei ◽

J.M. Wu ◽

R. Wu

Keyword(s):

Early Warning ◽

Early Warning System ◽

Composite Index ◽

Warning System ◽

Listed Companies ◽

Measurement Model ◽

Shipbuilding Industry ◽

Financial Condition ◽

Index Measurement ◽

Individual Index

It is extremely essential to establish financial early-warning system for listed companies in Chinese shipbuilding industry. Taking “Jiangnan Shipyard (Group) Co., Ltd” of shipbuilding industry as an example, this paper testifies the validity of index measurement model of financial early-warning, monitors its recent financial condition based on individual index and composite index, and then analyzes the financial alarm degree.

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