Analysis of overdispersion in airborne transmission of Covid-19

Superspreading events and overdispersion are hallmarks of the Covid-19 pandemic. To gain insight into the nature and controlling factors of these superspreading events and heterogeneity in transmission, we conducted mechanistic modeling of SARS-CoV-2 transmission by infectious aerosols using real-world occupancy data from a large number of full-service restaurants in ten US metropolises. Including a large number of factors that influence disease transmission in these settings, we demonstrate the emergence of a stretched tail in the probability density function of secondary infection numbers indicating strong heterogeneity in individual infectivity. Derived analytical results further demonstrate that variability in viral loads and variability in occupancy, together, lead to overdispersion in the number of secondary infections arising from individual index cases. Our analysis, connecting mechanistic understanding of SARS-CoV-2 transmission by aerosols with observed large-scale epidemiological characteristics of Covid-19 outbreaks, adds an important dimension to the mounting body of evidence with regards to the determinants of airborne transmission of SARS-CoV-2 by aerosols in indoor settings.

Genes, Ideology, and Sophistication

Twin studies function as natural experiments that reveal political ideology’s substantial genetic roots, but how does that comport with research showing a largely nonideological public? This study integrates two important literatures and tests whether political sophistication – itself heritable – provides an “enriched environment” for genetic predispositions to actualize in political attitudes. Estimates from the Minnesota Twin Study show that sociopolitical conservatism is extraordinarily heritable (74%) for the most informed fifth of the public – much more so than population-level results (57%) – but with much lower heritability (29%) for the public’s bottom half. This heterogeneity is clearest in the Wilson–Patterson (W-P) index, with similar patterns for individual index items, an ideological constraint measure, and ideological identification. The results resolve tensions between two key fields by showing that political knowledge facilitates the expression of genetic predispositions in mass politics.

COVID-19 risk stratification tools should incorporate multi-ethnic age structures, multimorbidity and deprivation metrics for air pollution, household overcrowding, housing quality and adult skills

Background-Black Asian and Minority Ethnicity (BAME) patients account for 34% of critically ill COVID-19 patients despite constituting 14% of the UK population. Internationally, researchers have called for studies to understand the risk factors among ethnic subgroups. We explored the extent to which social determinants for health including individual Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) sub-indices are risk factors for presentation with multilobar pneumonia, Intensive Therapy Unit (ITU) admission and hospitalised outcomes disaggregated by BAME subgroup.Methods-Multi-centre cohort study of hospitalised COVID-19 patients. Results-BAME patients with pneumonia and low CURB65 scores (0-1) had higher mortality than Caucasians (22.6% vs.9.4%; p<0.001); Africans were at highest risk (38.5%; p=0.006), followed by Caribbean (26.7%; p=0.008), Indian (23.1%; p=0.007) and Pakistani (21.2%; p=0.004). Age, sex, cirrhosis, obesity, Charlson Comorbidity (CCI) scores, presentation with multi-lobar pneumonia and ITU admission were independent mortality risk factors. BAME subgroups were more likely to be admitted with higher CCI scores than age, sex and deprivation matched controls and from the highest IMD sub-indices of at least one deprivation form: Indoor Living Environment (LE), Outdoor LE, Adult Skills and Wider Barriers to Housing and Services. Admission from the highest sub-indices of these deprivation forms was associated with multilobar pneumonia on presentation and ITU admission.Conclusions-BAME subgroups exhibit younger age structures resulting in CURB65 underscoring and disproportionate exposure to unscored risk factors:sex, obesity, multimorbidity and deprivation. Household overcrowding deprivation, air pollution deprivation, housing quality deprivation and adult skills deprivation are associated with multi-lobar pneumonia on presentation and ITU admission. Risk tools need to reflect risk factors predominantly affecting BAME subgroups.

Perceptions of Farm Size Heterogeneity and Demand for Group Index Insurance

Weather insurance is a financial instrument proposed to increase coverage of unprotected weather shocks in developing countries. Structuring sales as group-based products has been argued as a strategy to increase the attractiveness of index insurance, raising the question as to what impacts farmer demand for group insurance choices. We test if farmers prefer to purchase real-world insurance products as groups, and if groups of more similar individuals are more likely to demand group over individual index insurance for the upcoming season. We exogenously assign farmers into groups of similar versus dissimilar perceived farm size. We find that farmers, when offered, prefer group over individual insurance contracts, and that groups of farmers who perceive each other to be more similar in farm size are more likely to purchase in a group, but purchase less insurance on average.

Ranking Japan’s Institutions of Higher Education, 2017: A Comparative Analysis

The present study examined the 2017 Times Higher Education annual rankings for Japanese institutions of higher learning. Based on the analytic model as mapped out previously using Canadian data, we offered a similar protocol for the top 100 institutions of higher education in Japan. Three analyses showed that: (a) overall rank correlated with individual index ranks for 9 of the 13 indices, (b) the schools appearing among the top institutions overall ranked significantly better on 8 of the 13 indices compared to schools appearing among the bottom institutions overall, and (c) schools were empirically grouped into four meaningful families or clusters whose constituent members shared a comparable profile of indices. We offer a juxtaposition of the present results to annual evaluations from Canada’s institutions of higher learning. The wider implications include an international comparison of institutions of higher learning, a proposed analysis protocol that Japanese education administrations may further pursue, and a categorical breakdown of educational institutions in Japan. Directions for future research are outlined.

Analysis of Social Sustainability Information in a Global Context According to the New Global Reporting Initiative 400 Social Standards

Interest is increasing in what information companies disclose regarding the social aspects of their operations. This research therefore develops an index to analyze the social disclosure of companies from various countries and geographical regions including Latin America, Europe, Africa, Asia, and the United States. Using categorical principal component analysis and partial triadic analysis, we build a numerical value for a specific social individual index by firm. Then, we analyze the extent to which this disclosure follows the Global Reporting Initiative 400 social standards, which became effective on 1 July 2018. In addition to considering geographical aspects, we also analyze social disclosure based on industry, which facilitates firms’ decision-making and policy formation in social disclosure.

ANALISIS VARIANS MULTIVARIAT TERHADAP RETURN DAN RISIKO PORTOFOLIO YANG DITENTUKAN DENGAN ELTON GRUEBER PADBERG MODEL PADA EMPAT KELOMPOK INDEKS (LQ 45, SRI-KEHATI, JII, DAN ISSI)

This research emphasizes the difference between risk and return on four group of index, which are LQ 45, SRI KEHATI, JII and ISSI. Test of significance conduct by doing Analysis of Varians Multivariate. The Analysis of Varians Multivariate results more accurate than repeatedly t-test among group. EGP Model mostly explained as Single Index Model in various textbook. Thus, Single Index Model only clarified influence of a Single Market Index for Individual Index, EGP Model use Reward to Volatility (RVOL) for measuring excess return to systematic risk. The results shows that after 15 years from sharia index introduce in Indonesian Stock Exchange, it shows significant difference between sharia index and conventional stock market. However, LQ 45 shows it persistence as high return high risk index consistently. The Analysis VariansMultivariate also shows SRI KEHATI, as an ethic businesses representative in Indonesian Stock Exchange as a weaker index. SRI KEHATI shows that various group portfolio form by EGP Model could not exceed JII performance. Therefore, it concludes that indexes provide by capital market to facilitise the preference of investor whereas,it is tremendously various. To invest in stock market, investor need to clarify their wants and needs. Whether their wants is to gain more return or to accommodate their risk, and their preferrence to invest in various kind of business or certain business such as business based on ethic or faith.Keywords: Analysis of Varians Multivariate; Risk and Return; EGP Model; Indexes; LQ 45; Sri-Kehati; Jakarta Islamic Index (JII); and Indeks Saham Syariah Indonesia (ISSI)

ANALISIS VARIANS MULTIVARIAT TERHADAP RETURN DAN RISIKO PORTOFOLIO YANG DITENTUKAN DENGAN ELTON GRUEBER PADBERG MODEL PADA EMPAT KELOMPOK INDEKS (LQ 45, SRI-KEHATI, JII, DAN ISSI)

This research emphasizes the difference between risk and return on four group of index, which are LQ 45, SRI KEHATI, JII and ISSI. Test of significance conduct by doing Analysis of Varians Multivariate. The Analysis of Varians Multivariate results more accurate than repeatedly t-test among group. EGP Model mostly explained as Single Index Model in various textbook. Thus, Single Index Model only clarified influence of a Single Market Index for Individual Index, EGP Model use Reward to Volatility (RVOL) for measuring excess return to systematic risk. The results shows that after 15 years from sharia index introduce in Indonesian Stock Exchange, it shows significant difference between sharia index and conventional stock market. However, LQ 45 shows it persistence as high return high risk index consistently. The Analysis VariansMultivariate also shows SRI KEHATI, as an ethic businesses representative in Indonesian Stock Exchange as a weaker index. SRI KEHATI shows that various group portfolio form by EGP Model could not exceed JII performance. Therefore, it concludes that indexes provide by capital market to facilitise the preference of investor whereas,it is tremendously various. To invest in stock market, investor need to clarify their wants and needs. Whether their wants is to gain more return or to accommodate their risk, and their preferrence to invest in various kind of business or certain business such as business based on ethic or faith.Keywords: Analysis of Varians Multivariate; Risk and Return; EGP Model; Indexes; LQ 45; Sri-Kehati; Jakarta Islamic Index (JII); and Indeks Saham Syariah Indonesia (ISSI)

Patient-Centered Medical Home Measurement in School-Based Health Centers

School-based health centers (SBHCs) have been suggested as potential medical homes, yet minimal attention has been paid to measuring their patient-centered medical home (PCMH) implementation. The purposes of this article were to (1) develop an index to measure PCMH attributes in SBHCs, (2) use the SBHC PCMH Index to compare PCMH capacity between PCMH certified and non-PCMH SBHCs, and (3) examine differences in index scores between SBHCs based in schools with and without adolescents. A total of six PCMH dimensions in the SBHC PCMH Index were identified through factor analysis. These dimensions were collapsed into two domains: care quality and comprehensive care. SBHCs recognized as PCMHs had higher scores on the index, both domains, and four dimensions. SBHCs based in schools with just young children and those with adolescents scored similarly on the overall index, but analysis of individual index items shows their strengths and weaknesses in PCMH implementation.

An analytical study on logistics outsourcing impact on logistical service quality in supply chains (case study: industrial enterprises of Sumy region)

The aim of this paper is to analyze and evaluate the impact of logistical outsourcing on the overall quality of the level of the logistical service of enterprises-producers in supply chains. In this study, special attention is paid to the estimation of indicators of logistics service as by their own forces and due to outsourcing and assessing the elasticity of these indicators, for an example, in Sumy Engineering Works Ltd. As a result of the study, in case of their own delivery, logistics service level is higher than in case of logistics outsourcing. It may be related to the fact that in the first case, at the industrial enterprises, there is higher level of control over the process and the capacity for flexible and rapid response to various demands of consumers, which is very important for competitiveness. It was determined how the value of each individual index varies with the change in the supply control volume.