Impact of crude oil price on the socio-political environment of global countries

2019 ◽  
Vol 118 (3) ◽  
pp. 110-122
Author(s):  
Johnson Clement Madathil ◽  
Velmurugan P. S
Keyword(s):  
Crude Oil ◽  
Descriptive Analysis ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Policy Framework ◽  
Political Environment ◽  
Policy Reforms ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Political Impact ◽  
New Energy

Crude oil is known to have an impact on people’s life of both producers and consumers of crude oil countries. A producer country’s socio-political impact will be different from a consumer country’s socio-political impact. This paper aims to show that crude oil price has a socio-political impact on global countries through descriptive analysis. The study found that there were similarities in the movement of crude oil price and change in GDP of both India and United States and further Russia and Venezuela have had crude oil impact on their respective GDP’s, which has made them take policy reforms. The paper identifies changes in the policy framework due to influence of crude oil price and eventual changes in existing socio-political environment. Taking oil producing countries such as Russia and Venezuela as examples, this paper suggests that policy reforms are the key to having a stable socio-political environment. Russia shows us that having a flexible monetary policy can keep the budget dependence on crude oil reduced in the short term. On the other hand, for oil consuming countries, having a stable supply and moving to new energy sources is the key to tackle the influence of crude oil price on the socio-political environment of global countries.

How can new energy vehicles affect air quality in China?— From the perspective of crude oil price

2021 ◽  
pp. 0958305X2110443
Author(s):  
Qiu-Su Wang ◽  
Chi-Wei Su ◽  
Yu-Fei Hua ◽  
Muhammad Umar
Keyword(s):  
Air Quality ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Chinese Government ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
Energy And Environment ◽  
New Energy ◽  
New Energy Vehicle ◽  
New Energy Vehicles

From the perspective of crude oil price, this paper investigates the effects of new energy vehicles on air quality by applying a time-varying parameter–stochastic volatility–vector autoregression model. NEVs benefits from the continuous adjustment and improvement of subsidy standards by the Chinese government, and the share of new energy vehicles in the market has been continuously improved. The empirical results show that the increase in new energy vehicles can reduce PM2.5 emissions, which is also consistent with the energy and environment theoretical model, and replacing traditional energy with new energy is helpful for controlling environmental pollution. Oil price has a direct negative impact on PM2.5 concentration, and the influence of new energy vehicles on air quality is also regulated by changes in oil price. A high oil price leads to an increase in driving costs, and consumers are more inclined to purchase new energy vehicles, which achieves the purpose of improving air quality to a certain extent. To improve the air quality, the relevant departments should adjust the subsidy policy of new energy vehicles according to the change in oil price and appropriately increase gasoline or diesel consumption taxes to provide development space for the new energy vehicle market.

scholarly journals Impact of COVID-19 on Forecasting Stock Prices: An Integration of Stationary Wavelet Transform and Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory

Complexity ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Štifanić ◽  
Jelena Musulin ◽  
Adrijana Miočević ◽  
Sandi Baressi Šegota ◽  
Roman Šubić ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Crude Oil ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Stationary Wavelet Transform ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Term Memory ◽  
Long Short Term Memory ◽  
The Impact

COVID-19 is an infectious disease that mostly affects the respiratory system. At the time of this research being performed, there were more than 1.4 million cases of COVID-19, and one of the biggest anxieties is not just our health, but our livelihoods, too. In this research, authors investigate the impact of COVID-19 on the global economy, more specifically, the impact of COVID-19 on the financial movement of Crude Oil price and three US stock indexes: DJI, S&P 500, and NASDAQ Composite. The proposed system for predicting commodity and stock prices integrates the stationary wavelet transform (SWT) and bidirectional long short-term memory (BDLSTM) networks. Firstly, SWT is used to decompose the data into approximation and detail coefficients. After decomposition, data of Crude Oil price and stock market indexes along with COVID-19 confirmed cases were used as input variables for future price movement forecasting. As a result, the proposed system BDLSTM + WT-ADA achieved satisfactory results in terms of five-day Crude Oil price forecast.

Application of ARIMA Model in Short-Term Prediction of International Crude Oil Price

2013 ◽  
Vol 798-799 ◽  
pp. 979-982 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ying Xiang ◽  
Xiao Hong Zhuang
Keyword(s):  
Crude Oil ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Good Prediction ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Refined Oil ◽  
Price Data ◽  
Term Prediction ◽  
Short Term Prediction

International crude oil price is the referential scale of spot crude oil price and refined oil price. This paper made an analysis and prediction of Brent crude oil price by ARIMA model based on its price data from November 2012 to April 2013. It indicated that model ARIMA (1,1,1) possessed good prediction effect and can be used as short-term prediction of International crude oil price.

scholarly journals THE ISLAMIC CAPITAL MARKET VOLATILITY: A COMPARATIVE STUDY BETWEEN IN INDONESIA AND MALAYSIA

2013 ◽  
Vol 15 (4) ◽  
pp. 391-415
Author(s):  
Muhammad Syafii Antonio ◽  
Hafidhoh Hafidhoh ◽  
Hilman Fauzi
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Capital Market ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Jones Index

This study attempts to examine the short-term and long-term relationship among selected global anddomestic macroeconomic variables fromeach country (Fed rate, crude oil price, Dow Jones Index, interest rate, exchange rate and inflation) for Indonesia and Malaysia Islamic capital market (Jakarta Islamic Index (JII) and FTSE Bursa Malaysia Hijrah Shariah Index (FHSI). The methodology used in this study is vector error correction model (VECM) for the monthly data starting from January 2006 to December 2010. The result shows that in the long-term, all selectedmacroeconomic variables except Dow Jones Index variable have significantly affect in both Islamic stock market FHSI and JII, while in the short-term there is no any selected macroeconomic variables that significantly affect FHSI and only inflation, exchange rate and crude oil price variables seem to significantly affect JII. Keywords : Islamic Stock Market, Jakarta Islamic Index, FTSE Hijrah Shariah Index, VAR/VECMJEL Classification: E52, E44

scholarly journals Crude Oil Price Forecasting Using Long Short-Term Memory

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 286
Author(s):  
Muhamad Fariz Maulana ◽  
Siti Sa’adah ◽  
Prasti Eko Yunanto
Keyword(s):  
Crude Oil ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Price Forecasting ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Term Memory ◽  
Long Short Term Memory

Impact of Crude Oil Price on the Political Environment of Crude Oil Consuming Countries

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Velmurugan Palaniappan Shanmugam ◽  
Johnson Clement Madathil ◽  
Ashitha T
Keyword(s):  
Crude Oil ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
The Political ◽  
Political Environment ◽  
Crude Oil Price

scholarly journals PENGARUH VARIABEL MAKROEKONOMI TERHADAP INDEKS HARGA SAHAM SYARIAH (STUDI KASUS DI INDONESIA DAN MALAYSIA)

2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
DESY TRISHARDIYANTI ADININGTYAS
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Gold Price ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Correction Model

Abstract. The Effect of Macroeconomic Variables on Sharia Stock Price Index (Case Study in Indonesia and Malaysia). The purpose of this research is to know the effect of macroeconomic variables (inflation, exchange rate, world crude oil price and world gold price) on sharia stock price index in Indonesia and Malaysia. By using Error Correction Model as the method, this research utilizes time series monthly data from March 2015 until February 2018. The finding shows that in long-term, inflation in Indonesia, exchange rate of rupiah, world crude oil price and world gold price had significant effect on Jakarta Islamic Index. In short-term, inflation in Indonesia, world crude oil price, world gold price had not significant effect on Jakarta Islamic Index and exchange rate of rupiah had significant effect on Jakarta Islamic Index. Meanwhile, inflation in Malaysia, world crude oil price, world gold price had not significant effect on FTSE Bursa Malaysia Hijrah Syariah Index in long-term and short-term. And exchange rate of ringgit had significant effect on FTSE Bursa Malaysia Hijrah Syariah Index in long-term and short-term.   Abstrak. Pengaruh Variabel Makroekonomi Terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Syariah (Studi Kasus di Indonesia dan Malaysia). Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah untuk mengetahui pengaruh variabel makroekonomi (inflasi, kurs, harga minyak mentah dunia dan harga emas dunia) terhadap indeks harga saham syariah di Indonesia dan Malaysia. Penelitian ini menggunakan metode Error Correction Model, dengan data time series bulanan dari Maret 2015 sampai dengan Februari 2018. Hasil penelitian ini menunjukan bahwa pada jangka panjang, inflasi Indonesia, kurs rupiah, harga minyak mentah dunia dan harga emas dunia berpengaruh terhadap Jakarta Islamic Index. Pada jangka pendek, inflasi Indonesia, harga minyak mentah dunia, harga emas dunia tidak berpengaruh terhadap Jakarta Islamic Index dan kurs rupiah berpengaruh terhadap Jakarta Islamic Index. Sementara itu, inflasi Malaysia, harga minyak mentah dunia, harga emas dunia tidak berpengaruh terhadap FTSE Bursa Malaysia Hijrah Syariah Index pada jangka panjang dan jangka pendek. Dan kurs ringgit berpengaruh terhadap FTSE Bursa Malaysia Hijrah Syariah Index pada jangka panjang dan jangka pendek.

Petrobras Brazil outlook improves but challenges loom

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Crude Oil ◽  
Government Policy ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
Upward Trend ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Oil Companies ◽  
Future Success

Subject The outlook for Petrobras. Significance The collapse of the crude oil price in 2014, a huge corruption scandal and government policy have combined to damage Petrobras. While most major international oil companies have turned a corner and their profitability is on an upward trend, uncertainties continue to plague the company. Impacts Future success will depend in part on Petrobras tackling its debt mountain effectively. Petrobras will face a struggle to regain credibility in the markets despite improving results. Plans to require congressional approval of privatisations, and diverging campaign promises on Petrobras, will increase short-term doubts.

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