scholarly journals Quantitative Analysis of Shallow Earthquake Sequences and Regional Earthquake Behavior: Implications for Earthquake Forecasting

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Katrina Maureen Jacobs
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Southern California ◽  
Southern Alps ◽  
Earthquake Forecasting ◽  
Double Difference ◽  
Earthquake Catalog ◽  
Slow Slip ◽  
Individual Sequences ◽  
Earthquake Sequences ◽  
Sequence Parameters

<p>This study is a quantitative investigation and characterization of earthquake sequences in the Central Volcanic Region (CVR) of New Zealand, and several regions in New Zealand and Southern California. We introduce CURATE, a new declustering algorithm that uses rate as the primary indicator of an earthquake sequence, and we show it has appreciable utility for analyzing seismicity. The algorithm is applied to the CVR and other regions around New Zealand. These regions are also compared with the Southern California earthquake catalogue. There is a variety of behavior within these regions, with areas that experience larger mainshock-aftershock (MS-AS) sequences having distinctly different general sequence parameters than those of more swarm dominated regions. The analysis of the declustered catalog shows that Lake Taupo and at least three other North Island regions have correlated variations in rate over periods of ~5 years. These increases in rate are not due to individual large sequences, but are instead caused by a general increase in earthquake and sequence occurrence. The most obvious increase in rate across the four North Island subsets follows the 1995-1996 magmatic eruption at Ruapehu volcano. The fact that these increases are geographically widespread and occur over years at a time suggests that the variations may reflect changes in the subduction system or a broad tectonic process.  We examine basic sequence parameters of swarms and MS-AS sequences to provide better information for earthquake forecasting models. Like MS-AS sequences, swarm sequences contain a large amount of decay (decreasing rate) throughout their duration. We have tested this decay and found that 89% of MS-AS sequences and 55% of swarm sequences are better fit with an Omori's law decay than a linear rate. This result will be important to future efforts to forecast lower magnitude ranges or swarm prone areas like the CVR.  To look at what types of process may drive individual sequences and may be associated with the rate changes, we examined a series of swarms that occurred to the South of Lake Taupo in 2009. We relocated these earthquakes using double-difference method, hypoDD, to obtain more accurate relative locations and depths. These swarms occur in an area about 20x20 km. They do not show systematic migration between sequences. The last swarm in the series is located in the most resistive area of the Tokaanu geothermal region and had two M =4.4 earthquakes within just four hours of each other. The earthquakes in this swarm have an accelerating rate of occurrence leading up to the first M = 4.4 earthquakes, which migrate upward in depth. The locations of earthquakes following the M = 4.4 event expand away from it at a rate consistent with fluid diffusion.  Our statistical investigation of triggering due to large global (M ≥ 7) and regional earthquakes (M ≥ 6) concludes that more detailed (waveform level) investigation of individual sequences will be necessary to conclusively identify triggering, but sequence catalogs may be useful in identifying potential targets for those investigations. We also analyzed the probability that a series of swarms in the central Southern Alps were triggered by the 2009 Dusky Sound Mw = 7.8 and the 2010 Darfield Mw = 7.1 earthquake. There is less than a one-percent chance that the observed sequences occurred randomly in time. The triggered swarms do not show a significant difference to the swarms occurring in that region at other times in the 1.5-year catalog. Waveform cross-correlation was performed on this central Southern Alps earthquake catalog by a fellow PhD student Carolin Boese, and reveals that individual swarms are often composed of a single waveform family or multiple waveform families in addition to earthquakes that did not show waveform similarities. The existence of earthquakes that do not share waveform similarity in the same swarm (2.5 km radius) as a waveform family indicates that similar waveform groups may be unique in their location, but do not necessarily necessitate a unique trigger or driver. In addition to these triggered swarms in the Southern Alps we have also identified two swarms that are potentially triggered by slow-slip earthquakes along the Hikurangi margin in 2009 and 2010. The sequence catalogs generated by the CURATE method may be an ideal tool for searching for earthquake sequences triggered by slow-slip.</p>

scholarly journals Quantitative Analysis of Shallow Earthquake Sequences and Regional Earthquake Behavior: Implications for Earthquake Forecasting

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Katrina Maureen Jacobs
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Southern California ◽  
Southern Alps ◽  
Earthquake Forecasting ◽  
Double Difference ◽  
Earthquake Catalog ◽  
Slow Slip ◽  
Individual Sequences ◽  
Earthquake Sequences ◽  
Sequence Parameters

<p>This study is a quantitative investigation and characterization of earthquake sequences in the Central Volcanic Region (CVR) of New Zealand, and several regions in New Zealand and Southern California. We introduce CURATE, a new declustering algorithm that uses rate as the primary indicator of an earthquake sequence, and we show it has appreciable utility for analyzing seismicity. The algorithm is applied to the CVR and other regions around New Zealand. These regions are also compared with the Southern California earthquake catalogue. There is a variety of behavior within these regions, with areas that experience larger mainshock-aftershock (MS-AS) sequences having distinctly different general sequence parameters than those of more swarm dominated regions. The analysis of the declustered catalog shows that Lake Taupo and at least three other North Island regions have correlated variations in rate over periods of ~5 years. These increases in rate are not due to individual large sequences, but are instead caused by a general increase in earthquake and sequence occurrence. The most obvious increase in rate across the four North Island subsets follows the 1995-1996 magmatic eruption at Ruapehu volcano. The fact that these increases are geographically widespread and occur over years at a time suggests that the variations may reflect changes in the subduction system or a broad tectonic process.  We examine basic sequence parameters of swarms and MS-AS sequences to provide better information for earthquake forecasting models. Like MS-AS sequences, swarm sequences contain a large amount of decay (decreasing rate) throughout their duration. We have tested this decay and found that 89% of MS-AS sequences and 55% of swarm sequences are better fit with an Omori's law decay than a linear rate. This result will be important to future efforts to forecast lower magnitude ranges or swarm prone areas like the CVR.  To look at what types of process may drive individual sequences and may be associated with the rate changes, we examined a series of swarms that occurred to the South of Lake Taupo in 2009. We relocated these earthquakes using double-difference method, hypoDD, to obtain more accurate relative locations and depths. These swarms occur in an area about 20x20 km. They do not show systematic migration between sequences. The last swarm in the series is located in the most resistive area of the Tokaanu geothermal region and had two M =4.4 earthquakes within just four hours of each other. The earthquakes in this swarm have an accelerating rate of occurrence leading up to the first M = 4.4 earthquakes, which migrate upward in depth. The locations of earthquakes following the M = 4.4 event expand away from it at a rate consistent with fluid diffusion.  Our statistical investigation of triggering due to large global (M ≥ 7) and regional earthquakes (M ≥ 6) concludes that more detailed (waveform level) investigation of individual sequences will be necessary to conclusively identify triggering, but sequence catalogs may be useful in identifying potential targets for those investigations. We also analyzed the probability that a series of swarms in the central Southern Alps were triggered by the 2009 Dusky Sound Mw = 7.8 and the 2010 Darfield Mw = 7.1 earthquake. There is less than a one-percent chance that the observed sequences occurred randomly in time. The triggered swarms do not show a significant difference to the swarms occurring in that region at other times in the 1.5-year catalog. Waveform cross-correlation was performed on this central Southern Alps earthquake catalog by a fellow PhD student Carolin Boese, and reveals that individual swarms are often composed of a single waveform family or multiple waveform families in addition to earthquakes that did not show waveform similarities. The existence of earthquakes that do not share waveform similarity in the same swarm (2.5 km radius) as a waveform family indicates that similar waveform groups may be unique in their location, but do not necessarily necessitate a unique trigger or driver. In addition to these triggered swarms in the Southern Alps we have also identified two swarms that are potentially triggered by slow-slip earthquakes along the Hikurangi margin in 2009 and 2010. The sequence catalogs generated by the CURATE method may be an ideal tool for searching for earthquake sequences triggered by slow-slip.</p>

scholarly journals Using low-frequency earthquakes to monitor slow tectonic deformation in the central Southern Alps, New Zealand

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Laura-May Baratin Wachten
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Matched Filter ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
Southern Alps ◽  
Focal Mechanisms ◽  
Slow Slip ◽  
Slow Slip Events ◽  
Event Time ◽  
Alpine Fault ◽  
Occurrence Patterns

<p>This thesis involves the study of low-frequency earthquakes (LFEs) in the central Southern Alps. The Alpine Fault is the principal locus of deformation within the Australia–Pacific plate boundary in the South Island of New Zealand and it is late in its typical ∼300-year seismic cycle. Surveying the seismicity associated with slow deformation in the vicinity of the Alpine Fault may provide constraints on the stresses acting on a major transpressive margin prior to an anticipated great (≥M8) earthquake. Here, we use 8 years of data from the Southern Alps Microearthquake Borehole Array (SAMBA) (amongst those, 3 years of data were collected as part of this project) in order to: (1) generate an updated LFE catalogue using an improved matched-filter technique that incorporates phase-weighted stacking; (2) compute LFE focal mechanisms and invert them to infer the crustal stress field on the deep extent of the Alpine Fault; (3) expand the LFE catalogue to cover a wider range of spatial/temporal behaviours; (4) study LFE families’ characteristics to identify periods where slow slip might happen.  We first use fourteen primary LFE templates in an iterative matched-filter and stacking routine, which allows the detection of similar signals and produces LFE families sharing common locations. We generate an 8-yr catalogue containing 10,000 LFEs that are combined for each of the 14 LFE families using phase-weighted stacking to produce signals with the highest possible signal-to-noise ratios. We find LFEs to occur almost continuously during the 8-yr study period and we highlight two types of LFE distributions: (1) discrete behaviour with an inter-event time exceeding 2 minutes; (2) burst-like behaviour with an inter-event time below 2 minutes. The discrete events are interpreted as small-scale frequent deformation on the deep extent of the Alpine Fault and the LFE bursts (corresponding in most cases to known episodes of tremor or large regional earthquakes) are interpreted as brief periods of increased slip activity indicative of slow slip. We compute improved non-linear earthquake locations using a 3D velocity model and find LFEs to occur below the seismogenic zone at depths of 17–42 km, on or near the hypothesised deep extent of the Alpine Fault. We then compute the first estimates of LFE focal mechanisms associated with continental faulting. Focal mechanisms, in conjunction with recurrence intervals, are consistent with quasi-continuous shear faulting on the deep extent of the Alpine Fault.  We then generate a new catalogue that regroups hundreds of LFE families. This time 638 synthetic LFE waveforms are generated using a 3D grid and used as primary templates in a matched-filter routine. Of those, 529 templates yield enough detections during the first iteration of the matched-filter routine (≥ 500 detections over the 8-yr study period) and are kept for further analysis. We then use the best 25% of correlated events for each LFE family to generate linear stacks which create new LFE templates. From there, we run a second and final iteration of the matched-filter routine with the new LFE templates to obtain our final LFE catalogue. The remaining 529 templates detect between 150 and 1,671 events each totalling 300,996 detections over the 8-yr study period. Of those 529 LFEs, we manage to locate 378 families. Their depths range between 11 and 60 km and LFEs locate mainly in the southern part of the SAMBA network. We finally examine individual LFE family rates and occurrence patterns. They indicate that LFE sources seem to evolve from an episodic or ‘stepped’ to a continuous behaviour with depth. This transition may correspond to an evolution from a stick-slip to a stable-sliding slip regime. Hence, we propose that the distinctive features of LFE occurrence patterns reflect variations in the in-situ stress and frictional conditions at the individual LFE source locations on the Alpine Fault.  Finally, we use this new extensive catalogue as a tool for in-depth analyses of the deep central Alpine Fault structure and its slip behaviour. We identify eight episodes of increased LFE activity between 2009 and 2017 and provide time windows for further investigations of tremor and slow slip. We also study the spatial and temporal behaviours of LFEs and find that LFEs with synchronous occurrence patterns tend to be clustered in space. We thus suggest that individual LFE sources form spatially coherent clusters that may represent localised asperities or elastic patches on the deep Alpine Fault interface. We infer that those clusters may have a similar rheological response to tectonic forcing or to potential slow slip events. Eventually, we discover slow (10km/day) and rapid (∼20-25km/h) migrations of LFEs along the Alpine Fault. The slow migration might be controlled by slow slip events themselves while the rapid velocities could be explained by the LFE sources’ intrinsic properties.</p>

Aftershock sequence parameters in New Zealand

1998 ◽  
Vol 88 (4) ◽  
pp. 1095-1097
Author(s):  
Donna Eberhart-Phillips
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Aftershock Sequence ◽  
Magnitude Distribution ◽  
Generic Models ◽  
Earthquake Sequences ◽  
Sequence Parameters ◽  
Aftershock Hazard

Abstract Regional generic models describing the temporal and magnitude distribution of aftershocks are routinely used in California to assess aftershock hazard. This note applies the Reasenberg and Jones (1989) formulation of aftershock parameters to 17 New Zealand earthquake sequences of M ≧ 5.5, from 1987 through 1995. The median values of the aftershock parameters are similar to those obtained for California.

scholarly journals Using low-frequency earthquakes to monitor slow tectonic deformation in the central Southern Alps, New Zealand

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Laura-May Baratin Wachten
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Matched Filter ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
Southern Alps ◽  
Focal Mechanisms ◽  
Slow Slip ◽  
Slow Slip Events ◽  
Event Time ◽  
Alpine Fault ◽  
Occurrence Patterns

<p>This thesis involves the study of low-frequency earthquakes (LFEs) in the central Southern Alps. The Alpine Fault is the principal locus of deformation within the Australia–Pacific plate boundary in the South Island of New Zealand and it is late in its typical ∼300-year seismic cycle. Surveying the seismicity associated with slow deformation in the vicinity of the Alpine Fault may provide constraints on the stresses acting on a major transpressive margin prior to an anticipated great (≥M8) earthquake. Here, we use 8 years of data from the Southern Alps Microearthquake Borehole Array (SAMBA) (amongst those, 3 years of data were collected as part of this project) in order to: (1) generate an updated LFE catalogue using an improved matched-filter technique that incorporates phase-weighted stacking; (2) compute LFE focal mechanisms and invert them to infer the crustal stress field on the deep extent of the Alpine Fault; (3) expand the LFE catalogue to cover a wider range of spatial/temporal behaviours; (4) study LFE families’ characteristics to identify periods where slow slip might happen.  We first use fourteen primary LFE templates in an iterative matched-filter and stacking routine, which allows the detection of similar signals and produces LFE families sharing common locations. We generate an 8-yr catalogue containing 10,000 LFEs that are combined for each of the 14 LFE families using phase-weighted stacking to produce signals with the highest possible signal-to-noise ratios. We find LFEs to occur almost continuously during the 8-yr study period and we highlight two types of LFE distributions: (1) discrete behaviour with an inter-event time exceeding 2 minutes; (2) burst-like behaviour with an inter-event time below 2 minutes. The discrete events are interpreted as small-scale frequent deformation on the deep extent of the Alpine Fault and the LFE bursts (corresponding in most cases to known episodes of tremor or large regional earthquakes) are interpreted as brief periods of increased slip activity indicative of slow slip. We compute improved non-linear earthquake locations using a 3D velocity model and find LFEs to occur below the seismogenic zone at depths of 17–42 km, on or near the hypothesised deep extent of the Alpine Fault. We then compute the first estimates of LFE focal mechanisms associated with continental faulting. Focal mechanisms, in conjunction with recurrence intervals, are consistent with quasi-continuous shear faulting on the deep extent of the Alpine Fault.  We then generate a new catalogue that regroups hundreds of LFE families. This time 638 synthetic LFE waveforms are generated using a 3D grid and used as primary templates in a matched-filter routine. Of those, 529 templates yield enough detections during the first iteration of the matched-filter routine (≥ 500 detections over the 8-yr study period) and are kept for further analysis. We then use the best 25% of correlated events for each LFE family to generate linear stacks which create new LFE templates. From there, we run a second and final iteration of the matched-filter routine with the new LFE templates to obtain our final LFE catalogue. The remaining 529 templates detect between 150 and 1,671 events each totalling 300,996 detections over the 8-yr study period. Of those 529 LFEs, we manage to locate 378 families. Their depths range between 11 and 60 km and LFEs locate mainly in the southern part of the SAMBA network. We finally examine individual LFE family rates and occurrence patterns. They indicate that LFE sources seem to evolve from an episodic or ‘stepped’ to a continuous behaviour with depth. This transition may correspond to an evolution from a stick-slip to a stable-sliding slip regime. Hence, we propose that the distinctive features of LFE occurrence patterns reflect variations in the in-situ stress and frictional conditions at the individual LFE source locations on the Alpine Fault.  Finally, we use this new extensive catalogue as a tool for in-depth analyses of the deep central Alpine Fault structure and its slip behaviour. We identify eight episodes of increased LFE activity between 2009 and 2017 and provide time windows for further investigations of tremor and slow slip. We also study the spatial and temporal behaviours of LFEs and find that LFEs with synchronous occurrence patterns tend to be clustered in space. We thus suggest that individual LFE sources form spatially coherent clusters that may represent localised asperities or elastic patches on the deep Alpine Fault interface. We infer that those clusters may have a similar rheological response to tectonic forcing or to potential slow slip events. Eventually, we discover slow (10km/day) and rapid (∼20-25km/h) migrations of LFEs along the Alpine Fault. The slow migration might be controlled by slow slip events themselves while the rapid velocities could be explained by the LFE sources’ intrinsic properties.</p>

scholarly journals Characteristics of relocated hypocenters of the 2018 M6.7 Hokkaido Eastern Iburi earthquake and its aftershocks with a three-dimensional seismic velocity structure

2019 ◽  
Vol 71 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Saeko Kita
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Velocity ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Double Difference ◽  
Earthquake Catalog ◽  
Seismic Structure ◽  
Depth Limit ◽  
High Attenuation ◽  
South Central ◽  
Collision Zone ◽  
Hidaka Collision Zone

AbstractI relocated the hypocenters of the 2018 M6.7 Hokkaido Eastern Iburi earthquake and its surrounding area, using a three-dimensional seismic structure, the double-difference relocation method, and the JMA earthquake catalog. After relocation, the focal depth of the mainshock became 35.4 km. As previous studies show, in south-central Hokkaido, the Hidaka collision zone is formed, and anomalous deep and thickened forearc crust material is subducting at depths of less than 70 km. The mainshock and its aftershocks are located at depths of approximately 10 to 40 km within the lower crust of the anomalous deep and thickened curst near the uppermost mantle material intrusions in the northwestern edge of this Hidaka collision zone. Like the two previous large events, the aftershocks of this event incline steeply eastward and appear to be distributed in the deeper extension of the Ishikari-teichi-toen fault zone. The highly inclined fault in the present study is consistent with a fault model by a geodetic analysis with InSAR. The aftershocks at depths of 10 to 20 km are located at the western edge of the high-attenuation (low-Qp) zone. These kinds of relationships between hypocenters and materials are the same as the 1970 and 1982 events in the Hidaka collision zone. The anomalous large focal depths of these large events compared with the average depth limit of inland earthquakes in Japan could be caused by the locally lower temperature in south-central Hokkaido. This event is one of the approximately M7 large inland earthquakes that occurred repeatedly at a recurrence interval of approximately 40 years and is important in the collision process in the Hidaka collision zone.

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