Development of a Global Spatio-Temporal Seismicity Model and Its Application to the Vrancea Seismic Zone, Romania

<p>This study investigates the temporal behaviour of major earthquakes in the Vrancea Seismic Zone (VSZ)in Romania. I used the Romplus catalogue, which is a compilation of several sources and spans the time from 984 AD to the year 2005 and in which the data are of different quality. This catalogue contains only Vrancean earthquakes and consists of more than 8000 events. Qualities 'A', 'B' and 'C' were used to model the data. 'D' and '=' were found as too unreliable for modeling. Using the b-value, I concluded that 3.5 is the correct cut-off magnitude for earthquakes after 1980 and at depths of 60 km and greater. Thereby I detected an increase in the b-value after 1986 of about 0.2 units. The reason for this increase could not be found. Plotting the Gutenberg-Richter relation for several time and depth intervals, it was found that at larger depths than 60 km, there are too many M7 earthquakes as compared to small shocks. The shape of the Gutenberg-Richter relation is similar as to the one expected by the characteristic earthquake model (Schwarz and Coppersmith, 1984; Wesnousky, 1994). A strike of 53 degree was found and the earthquake coordinates were rotated correspondingly. The resulting view on the slab showed the confined volume in which the earthquakes happen and well as the 'aseismic part' of the slab between 40 km and 60 km of depth. The seismicity seems to reach a depth of 180 km. Only the earthquakes in the slab, below a depth of 60 km, show clustering behaviour. Furthermore, the M7 earthquakes all happened in the slab. Thus, a depth limit of 60 km was introduced for modeling. In order to find aftershocks in the catalogue, the temporal behaviour of the Vrancea earthquakes was examined. The mean magnitude increases after each major earthquake, indicating an aftershock process. This was confirmed by the rate of occurrence, which showed an increase in rate after the 1990 earthquakes. The rate of occurrence is too low for the first 580 days after 1980, possibly due to insufficient earthquake detection in this period of time. All the damaging M7 earthquakes all happened in the slab. Thus, shallow earthquakes had to be considered separately. A depth limit of 60 km was introduced and earthquake in shallower and deeper depths were considered separately. For the shallow earthquakes there was a sharp increase in the apparent b-value below the cut-off magnitude of 3.5. After reaching a value of 2.4, the b-value starts to fall steeply. This was attributed to biases in the magnitude calculation. I used the rounded value of 3.5 as a cut-off magnitude for the shallow earthquakes. Having found the magnitude cut-off, depth and time limit, modeling could be started. The model gives two important parameters: the proportion of aftershock and the time to the next earthquake. Using the Maximum Likelihood Method, a best fit was found for a data set starting at 1980 and consisting of earthquakes with a cut-off magnitude of 3.5 and a depth equal and greater than 60 km. According to the model, this data set consists of 13 plus or minus 5% aftershocks and has an inter-event time for new earthquakes of 13 plus or minus 1 days. Using several cut-off magnitudes, it was found that the calculated inter-event time for these earthquakes is consistent with the Gutenberg-Richter law. In contrast, the predicted value for the interevent time of M7 earthquakes does not match the one found in the catalogue. While the Maximum Likelihood Method leads to 814 years as recurrence time, the data shows a recurrence time of only 23 years. The model fits the data set of the 1990 aftershocks very well, too, leading to a aftershock proportion of 58 plus or minus 15%. The data set for the 1986 did not lead to good results, probably due to missing aftershocks shortly after the main shock. Comparing model and data with a pure Poisson model I could see that earthquakes tend to cluster in the first days after the major event. Several days later, their behaviour changes and then is similar to the one proposed by the seismic gap model. Looking at the ratio between the probabilities of the model of Smith and Christophersen and of the Poisson model, a clustering behaviour in the first 24 hours after the main shock was found, followed by a decreased seismicity, which reverts to be Poissonian after 100 days. Thus, I concluded that aftershock behaviour is only relevant after the first 24 hours following a major earthquake. After 24 hours, seismic hazard decreases to be less than as expected by the Poisson model in the following 100 days, until seismicity returns to be Poissonian again. Additionally, I suggest that the 1990 earthquake and its aftershocks should be considered as a 'model earthquake' for future earthquakes as it seems to be representative for earthquake behaviour in the VSZ.</p>

Development of a Global Spatio-Temporal Seismicity Model and Its Application to the Vrancea Seismic Zone, Romania

<p>This study investigates the temporal behaviour of major earthquakes in the Vrancea Seismic Zone (VSZ)in Romania. I used the Romplus catalogue, which is a compilation of several sources and spans the time from 984 AD to the year 2005 and in which the data are of different quality. This catalogue contains only Vrancean earthquakes and consists of more than 8000 events. Qualities 'A', 'B' and 'C' were used to model the data. 'D' and '=' were found as too unreliable for modeling. Using the b-value, I concluded that 3.5 is the correct cut-off magnitude for earthquakes after 1980 and at depths of 60 km and greater. Thereby I detected an increase in the b-value after 1986 of about 0.2 units. The reason for this increase could not be found. Plotting the Gutenberg-Richter relation for several time and depth intervals, it was found that at larger depths than 60 km, there are too many M7 earthquakes as compared to small shocks. The shape of the Gutenberg-Richter relation is similar as to the one expected by the characteristic earthquake model (Schwarz and Coppersmith, 1984; Wesnousky, 1994). A strike of 53 degree was found and the earthquake coordinates were rotated correspondingly. The resulting view on the slab showed the confined volume in which the earthquakes happen and well as the 'aseismic part' of the slab between 40 km and 60 km of depth. The seismicity seems to reach a depth of 180 km. Only the earthquakes in the slab, below a depth of 60 km, show clustering behaviour. Furthermore, the M7 earthquakes all happened in the slab. Thus, a depth limit of 60 km was introduced for modeling. In order to find aftershocks in the catalogue, the temporal behaviour of the Vrancea earthquakes was examined. The mean magnitude increases after each major earthquake, indicating an aftershock process. This was confirmed by the rate of occurrence, which showed an increase in rate after the 1990 earthquakes. The rate of occurrence is too low for the first 580 days after 1980, possibly due to insufficient earthquake detection in this period of time. All the damaging M7 earthquakes all happened in the slab. Thus, shallow earthquakes had to be considered separately. A depth limit of 60 km was introduced and earthquake in shallower and deeper depths were considered separately. For the shallow earthquakes there was a sharp increase in the apparent b-value below the cut-off magnitude of 3.5. After reaching a value of 2.4, the b-value starts to fall steeply. This was attributed to biases in the magnitude calculation. I used the rounded value of 3.5 as a cut-off magnitude for the shallow earthquakes. Having found the magnitude cut-off, depth and time limit, modeling could be started. The model gives two important parameters: the proportion of aftershock and the time to the next earthquake. Using the Maximum Likelihood Method, a best fit was found for a data set starting at 1980 and consisting of earthquakes with a cut-off magnitude of 3.5 and a depth equal and greater than 60 km. According to the model, this data set consists of 13 plus or minus 5% aftershocks and has an inter-event time for new earthquakes of 13 plus or minus 1 days. Using several cut-off magnitudes, it was found that the calculated inter-event time for these earthquakes is consistent with the Gutenberg-Richter law. In contrast, the predicted value for the interevent time of M7 earthquakes does not match the one found in the catalogue. While the Maximum Likelihood Method leads to 814 years as recurrence time, the data shows a recurrence time of only 23 years. The model fits the data set of the 1990 aftershocks very well, too, leading to a aftershock proportion of 58 plus or minus 15%. The data set for the 1986 did not lead to good results, probably due to missing aftershocks shortly after the main shock. Comparing model and data with a pure Poisson model I could see that earthquakes tend to cluster in the first days after the major event. Several days later, their behaviour changes and then is similar to the one proposed by the seismic gap model. Looking at the ratio between the probabilities of the model of Smith and Christophersen and of the Poisson model, a clustering behaviour in the first 24 hours after the main shock was found, followed by a decreased seismicity, which reverts to be Poissonian after 100 days. Thus, I concluded that aftershock behaviour is only relevant after the first 24 hours following a major earthquake. After 24 hours, seismic hazard decreases to be less than as expected by the Poisson model in the following 100 days, until seismicity returns to be Poissonian again. Additionally, I suggest that the 1990 earthquake and its aftershocks should be considered as a 'model earthquake' for future earthquakes as it seems to be representative for earthquake behaviour in the VSZ.</p>

A Fifth-Order Nonlinear Schrödinger Equation for Waves on the Surface of Finite-Depth Fluid

We derive a high-order nonlinear Schr¨odinger equation with fifth-order nonlinearity for the envelope of waves on the surface of a finite-depth irrotational, inviscid, and incompressible fluid over the flat bottom. This equation includes the fourth-order dispersion, cubic-quintic nonlinearity, and cubic nonlinear dispersion effects. The coefficients of this equation are given as functions of one dimensionless parameter kℎ, where k is the carrier wave number, and ℎ is the undisturbed fluid depth. These coefficients stay bounded in the infinite-depth limit.

Geochemical characterization of the source rock intervals, Beni-Suef Basin, West Nile Valley, Egypt

Geochemical and lithological investigations in the WON C-3X well record five organic-matter-rich intervals (OMRIs) of effective source rocks. These OMRIs correspond to moderate and good potentials. Two of these intervals occurred within the L-Kharita member of the Albian age represent 60.97% of the entire Albian thickness. The rest of OMRIs belongs to the Abu-Roash G and F members of the Late Cenomanian–Santonian age comprising 17.52 and 78.66% of their total thickness, respectively. The calculated heat flow of the studied basin is high within the range of 90.1–95.55 mW/m2 from shallower Abu-Roash F to deeper L-Kharita members. This high-heat flow is efficient for shallowing in the maximum threshold expulsion depth in the studied well to 2,000 m and active source rock depth limit to 2,750 m. Thermal maturity and burial history show that the source rock of L-Kharita entered the oil generation from 97 Ma till the late oil stage of 7.5 Ma, whereas the younger Abu-Roash G and F members have entered oil generation since 56 Ma and not reached peak oil yet. Hence, the source rock intervals from Abu-Roash F and G are promising for adequate oil generation.

In situ Responses of the Eelgrass Zostera marina L. to Water Depth and Light Availability in the Context of Increasing Coastal Water Turbidity: Implications for Conservation and Restoration

Accelerating losses of seagrass meadows has led to efforts to restore these highly productive and beneficial ecosystems globally. Depth and light availability are critical determinants of seagrass restoration success. Eelgrass (Zostera marina L.) is the dominant seagrass species in the temperate northern hemisphere, but its global distribution has reduced dramatically. The main aims of this study were to determine: (1) the depth limit for Z. marina survival in Ailian Bay, north China, and (2) how light availability affects the growth and recruitment of Z. marina as a basis for identifying a suitable depth range for successful restoration. To achieve these aims, Z. marina shoots were transplanted from a nearby donor site, Swan Lake, to an experimental site, Ailian Bay, and the temporal responses of Z. marina shoots to light availability at water depths ranging from 1 to 8 m were investigated using in situ suspended cultures. Four suspended shoot transplantation experiments were conducted in 4 years. The results showed that the transplanted Z. marina shoots could survive and branch during an annual growth cycle, permanently underwater, at a depth ≤3 m. Due to the local turbidity of the waters in Ailian Bay, a depth of 4 m led to sufficient light deprivation (reduced to 6.48–10.08% of surface irradiance) to negatively affect seagrass shoot density and clonal reproduction. In addition, reproductive shoot density also tended to decline with water depth and light deprivation. Our results indicated that Z. marina population recruitment, through sexual and asexual (clonal growth) reproduction, were negatively affected by increasing water depth and light deprivation. These findings may provide a suitable depth range for the successful restoration of Z. marina in local coastal waters. They may also be applied to the management and restoration of Z. marina globally.

Assessment of coral restoration’s contribution to reef recovery using machine learning

Coral restoration emerged globally as a form of life support for coral reefs, awaiting urgent mitigation of anthropogenic pressure. Yet its efficiency is difficult to assess, as ambitious transplantation programs handle hundreds of thousands of fragments, with survival rates inherently time-intensive to monitor. Due to limited available data, the influence of most environmental and methodological factors is still unknown.We therefore propose a new method which leverages machine learning to track each colony’s individual health and growth on a large sample size. This is the first time artificial intelligence techniques were used to monitor coral at a colony scale, providing an unprecedented amount of data on coral health and growth. Here we show the influence of genus, depth and initial fragment size, alongside providing an outlook on coral restoration’s efficiency.We show that among 77,574 fragments, individual survival rate was 31% after 2 years (21% after 4 years), which is much lower than most reported results. In the absence of significant anthropogenic pressure, we showed that there was a depth limit below which Pocillopora fragments outperformed Acropora fragments, while the opposite was true past this threshold. During the mid-2019 heatwave, our research indicates that Pocillopora fragments were 37% more likely to survive than Acropora fragments.Overall, the total amount of live coral steadily increased over time, by more than 3,700 liters a year, as growth compensated for mortality. This supports the use of targeted coral restoration to accelerate reef recovery after mass bleaching events.

Prediction model of rhomboid major and pleura depth based on anthropometric features to decrease the risk of pneumothorax during dry needling

Background: Although mostly common adverse events associated to dry needling can be considered minor, serious adverse events including induced pneumothorax cannot be excluded, and safety instructions for reducing the risk of pleura puncture are needed. Objective: To investigate if anthropometric features can predict the rhomboid major muscle and pleura depth in a sample of healthy subjects to avoid the risk of pneumothorax during dry needling. Methods: A diagnostic study was conducted on 59 healthy subjects (52.5 % male) involving a total of 236 measurements (both sides in maximum inspiration and expiration), to calculate the accuracy of a prediction model for both pleura and rhomboid depth, as assessed with ultrasound imaging, based on sex, age, height, weight, body mass index (BMI), breathing and chest circumference. A correlation matrix and a multiple linear regression analyses were used to detect those variables contributing significantly to the variance in both locations. Results: Men showed greater height, weight, BMI, thorax circumference and skin-to-rhomboid, rhomboid-to-pleura y skin-to-pleura distances (p<0.001). Sex, BMI, and thorax circumference explained 51.5% of the variance of the rhomboid (p<0.001) and 69.7% of pleura (p<0.001) depth limit. In general, inserting a maximum length of 19 mm is recommended to reach the deep limit of rhomboid major decreasing the risk of passing through the pleura. Conclusion: This study identified that gender, BMI and thorax circumference can predict both rhomboid and pleura depth, as assessed with ultrasonography, in healthy subjects. Our findings could assist clinicians in the needle length election for avoiding the risk of induced pneumothorax during dry needling.

Microstructure Characteristics, Tribology and Nano-Hardness of HVOF Sprayed NiCrRe Coating

The high-velocity oxy-fuel technique (HVOF) was used to produce dense NiCrRe coating on boiler steel substrate with a minimal amount of oxide impurities and low porosity. Microstructure analysis, tribology and nano-hardness measurement have been realized with the aim to characterize the systems. The microstructure was studied using scanning electron microscopy and Energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy. Tribological characteristics have been studied under the dry sliding condition at applied loads of 5, 10 and 20 N using the ball-on-flat technique with SiC ball at room temperature. Nano-hardness was investigated in continuous stiffness measurement (CSM) mode, the indentation depth limit was 1500 nm. Microstructure analyses proved that the HVOF sprayed layer, with a thickness approximately 870 µm, contains a relatively low volume fraction of porosity with a chemical composition based on Nickel, Chromium, with white areas of Rhenium. The wear rate of the coating is significantly lower than the wear rate of 16Mo3 steel. The average values of indentation modulus and hardness were EIT = 237.6 GPa and HIT = 6.3 GPa, respectively.