The Determinants of the Current Account: Before and After the Global Financial Crisis

Author(s):  
Dong-jun Shin ◽  
Eui-hwan Park
Ekonomika ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 93 (2) ◽  
pp. 24-44
Author(s):  
Rokas Grajauskas

Abstract. The paper deals with the dynamics of Lithuania’s current account in two distinct periods – the period in the run-up to the 2008–2009 financial crisis and the period since the crisis. The two main goals of the paper are: 1) to assess the sustainability of the level of Lithuania’s current account in the period 1995–2015 using an empirical model based on the intertemporal optimisation approach, and 2) to identify the factors behind the observed trends in Lithuania’s current account in the two periods in question. The research has been conducted using the methods of empirical (regression) analysis, theoretical explanations, and descriptive analysis. The paper finds that the current account in Lithuania has been sustainable since 1995, except for two brief periods – the 1999 Russian crisis and in 2009 when Lithuania’s economy contracted by more than 15% in real terms due to the global financial crisis. The empirical research has also revealed a shift in the level of the sustainable current account in the post-crisis period but shows an existing gap between the sustainable and the actual current account in Lithuania. Considering the characteristics of Lithuania’s economy, the paper concludes that the actual level of the current account in Lithuania is not optimal from the intertemporal point of view.Key words: intertemporal optimisation, current account, deleveraging, rebalancing, capital flight


2014 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Chalotorn Sinproh ◽  
Juraj Sipko

Abstract Purpose of the article The aim of the paper is to analyze the global economic imbalances and factors that contributed to their deterioration in developed and emerging countries, primarily in the United States and China. The article assesses the main inevitable factors of the global economic imbalances that have driven the recent evolution of current account balances. In addition, the paper describes the theoretical framework of global imbalances and the relevant fundamental theories for better understanding in theoretical aspect of international economics and finance. Furthermore, provides overview of the fundamental causes and drivers of global imbalances, namely current account. Methodology/methods In relation to the subject and purpose of this paper have been used the logical methods of examination which mainly include analysis, correlation and regression analysis, abstraction, synthesis, induction and deduction, the methods of descriptive and mathematical statistics, comparative and empirical methods and the selected forecasting methods (causal prognosis methods). Scientific aim The global imbalances are considered as the most disputable and well known of the global current economic problem, which possibly explain the causes of the global financial crisis. The global financial imbalances were quite massive even before the outbreak of the global financial crisis in 2008. Therefore, the main scientific goal of this paper to analyse what is behind the current account imbalances in both countries, e.i. the USA and China. Findings The persistent current account imbalances reflected the imbalances in the world investment and savings ratios. Whereas the U.S. national savings rate kept falling, the Chinese savings rate rose. Current account imbalances will keep on growing due to a problem of insufficient global saving. Conclusions (limits, implications etc)The size of global imbalances has become narrow compared to the prior crisis’s level, but it did not vanish due to the implementation of global rebalancing process. Putting the current account imbalance to cooperation of all participating countries is strongly necessary. The policy response will need to involve many more countries, even G20 process, and coordinating this response will require considerable efforts of every party members.


2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 52
Author(s):  
Tamer Bahjat Sabri

This paper seeks to shed light on investment in fixed assets before and after the financial crisis that took place in 2008 and compare the two periods together in the sectors of industry and investment in Palestine Stock Exchange. The period between 2005 – 2007 was chosen to represent to the pre-crisis time and the period between 2010 -2012 was chosen to represent the post-crisis time. The population of the study consists of fifteen organizations from both sectors. To test the hypothesis of the study, the independent samples T-test was employed.The average ratio of fixed assets to the total assets of industry and investment rose from 56.2% before the crisis to 58.5% after the crisis. As for the hypotheses of the study, the findings showed no difference except for the seventh hypothesis. There was a statically significant difference in the ratio of fixed assets to equity between the listed companies that a high return on assets and those that have a low return.


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