The Political Economy of the Profitability Crisis in Britain

This chapter provides a historical overview of the profitability crisis that undermined the postwar economic boom, gave rise to the phenomenon of stagflation, and ultimately drove the financial liberalizations explored in this book. This chapter puts forward a novel historical categorization of British stagflation, by identifying two distinct phases within Britain’s experience of the global profitability crisis. The first, from 1967 to 1977, was characterized by low rates of profit, rising inflation, and repeated current account imbalances that resulted in currency crises. The second, from 1977 to 1983, still saw low profitability and high inflation, but the rising price of sterling ensured that there were no sterling crises. The chapter then details how governments combined governing strategies of depoliticized discipline and palliation in different ways during these two periods of acute crisis in order to navigate the contradictory imperatives of global competitiveness and domestic legitimacy. Policies of financial liberalization constituted attempts to support these strategies.

Capital markets and the costs of climate policies

Globalization is accompanied by increasing current account imbalances. They can undermine the positive impacts of increasing international cooperation and trade on economic growth and income convergence. At the same time, climate change challenges the global community and requests for co-operative action. Regional energy transformation due to climate policies and the resulting regional mitigation costs are key variables of climate economic analysis. This study is the first that include current account imbalances and imperfect capital markets to investigate potential market feedback mechanisms between climate policies, energy sector transformation and capital markets. Furthermore, it answers the question whether the capital-intensive transformation towards zero-carbon economies increases the policy cost of mitigation under the condition of imperfect capital markets. First results demonstrate a dominant baseline effect of capital market imperfections on macroeconomic variables, and moderate effects on mitigation costs in global climate policy scenarios. For some regions (e.g. Middle East) estimates of relatively high mitigation costs are revised downwards, if imperfect capital markets are considered.

Propagation of the Effects of China’s Changing Economic Development Model to the Rest of the World

This paper tackles the potential effects of the fundamental changes that China’s economy is undergoing on the rest of the world. Thus, a range of effects in the development of China’s imports of goods and services can have on other countries were identified, in terms of China’s switching from investment to consumption and from manufacturing to services and innovations, as well as in exports, in the light of China’s upward movement within the global value chain. The spread of effects via the financial channel is examined for direct investment and external loans, with an emphasis on changes in both the size of financial flows and the motivation of Chinese investors. The emerging trend of relative reduction in China’s foreign exchange reserves, as well as the potential effects of the yuan’s internationalization going forward in terms of diminishing global current account imbalances were evaluated.

Macroeconomic Policy Making and Current Account Imbalances in the Euro Area

The paper analyses the role of fiscal and monetary policy for the development of the current account imbalances in the euro area, including the most recent developments during the coronavirus crisis. Several financial transmission channels such as international bank lending, changes in TARGET2 balances, international rescue credit and government bond purchases of euro area central banks are identified. It is found that differing fiscal policy stances which have interacted differently with the ECB’s monetary policy have been at roots of first diverging and then converging current account positions in the euro area. Since the European financial and debt crisis, public financing mechanisms and the unconventional monetary of the ECB have contributed to the persistence of intra-euro area current account imbalances.

Thirlwall's law is not a tautology, but some empirical tests of it nearly are

This article examines the charge that Thirlwall's law is a theoretical tautology. It shows that a certain approach to empirical testing of that law can sometimes – under conditions analysed here – result in econometric estimates that reflect an approximate identity or ‘near-tautology’. Nevertheless, other methods of empirically testing the law are not subject to the near-tautology critique, and hence the theory itself is not a tautology. Econometric estimates for the US and Mexico reveal that the near-tautology critique applies to data for the former but not the latter; the difference in these results is explained by exactly the reasons discussed here. The article offers an alternative interpretation of Thirlwall's law as implying a benchmark for analysing whether national income, rather than relative prices, is the main adjusting factor in response to current-account imbalances in the long run.

Global Imbalances: The Role of Institutions, Financial Development and FDI in the Context of Financial Crises

This paper examines the role of the quality of institutions, financial development and FDI on current account imbalances, which narrowed during the Global Financial Crisis. In doing so, we utilize (i) a sample of 49 advanced and emerging economies during 1984–2014; (ii) a novel three-clustered indices of institutional quality and (iii) two measures of financial development, the share of FDI and a measure of financial crisis in addition to standard determinants of the current account. We find that the better the quality of institutions and the greater the financial development, the larger are current account deficits; meanwhile, FDI contributes to boost current account balances. Moreover, financial crisis episodes tend to improve current account balances, particularly for countries that are highly open to trade and to receive FDI, as in the case of advanced economies and East Asian countries.