scholarly journals Penerapan Real Option Analysis dengan Perubahan Volatilitas dalam Menentukan Nilai Proyek Pertambangan

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Novriana Sumarti
Keyword(s):  
Real Option ◽  
Lattice Method ◽  
Market Conditions ◽  
Real Option Analysis ◽  
Project Valuation ◽  
Valuation Method ◽  
Valuation Process ◽  
Silver Mining ◽  
Option Model ◽  
Real Option Method

Author: Dean Andrean, Rio Nur Arifin, Novriana Sumarti AbstrakDalam menghadapi kondisi pasar yang tidak menentu, sebuah perusahaan memerlukan se- buah proses evaluasi nilai proyek yang dapat mengikutsertakan ketidakpastian yang timbul oleh kondisi pasar tersebut, agar perusahaan dapat memaksimalkan keuntungan dan mem- batasi kerugian yang mungkin timbul. Metode Real Option merupakan metode valuasi proyek yang dapat mengandung unsur ketidakpastian dan juga strategi investasi perusahaan pada proyek yang akan dijalankan. Ketidakpastian ini ditandai dengan adanya perubahan nilai proyek dari waktu ke waktu, dimana dalam makalah ini akan dimodelkan oleh Metode Lattice. Salah satu parameter yang diperlukan dalam metode ini adalah volatilitas yang menunjukkan cukup atau kurangnya informasi yang dimiliki mengenai perkembangan nilai proyek tersebut di masa yang akan datang. Makalah ini membahas tentang Real Option menggunakan model trinomial lattice yang dimodifikasi dengan perubahan volatilitas ber- dasarkan Haahtela. Model Real Option dengan perubahan volatilitas tersebut diterapkan pada masalah valuasi nilai proyek pertambangan perak. Hasil analisis menunjukkan nilai proyek yang positif sehingga proyek ini akan menguntungkan untuk dijalankan.Kata kunci: Evaluasi Nilai Proyek, Metode Lattice, Metode Trinomial, Real Option AbstractIn facing uncertain market conditions, a company needs a project value valuation process that may involve uncertainty arising from such market conditions, in order for the company to maximize profits and limit losses that may arise. Real Option method is a method of val- uation of projects that can contain elements of uncertainty and also the company's invest- ment strategy on the project to be run. This uncertainty is marked by the change of project’s value from time to time, which in this paper will be modeled by the lattice Method. One of the parameters required in this method is the volatility indicating sufficient or insufficient information about the development of the project’s value in the future. This paper discusses Real Option using modified trinomial lattice model with volatility changes based on Haahtela. The Real Option model with such volatility changes is applied to the valuation of the value of the silver mining project. The result show positive value of this project so the project is worthed to run.Keywords: Project Valuation Method, Method Lattice, Method Trinomial, Real Option

scholarly journals When to Get In and Out of Dairy Farming: A Real Option Analysis

2006 ◽  
Vol 35 (2) ◽  
pp. 339-347 ◽  
Author(s):  
Loren W. Tauer
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
Real Option ◽  
Dairy Farming ◽  
Cost Structure ◽  
Dairy Farmers ◽  
Real Option Analysis ◽  
Option Model ◽  
Exit Decisions ◽  
Representative Farms ◽  
The Cost

The Dixit entry/exit real option model was applied to the entry/exit decisions of New York dairy farmers. For the cost structure of a 500-cow farm, the entry milk price is $17.52 per hundredweight (cwt) and the exit milk price is $10.84. For the 50-cow farm cost structure, the entry price is higher at $23.71 per cwt, and the exit price is also higher at $13.48. If infinite numbers of representative farms enter and exit at these prices, the price of milk should range between $13.48 and $17.52 per cwt.

scholarly journals Real option analysis. The viability of real estate projects

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (4) ◽  
pp. 271-284
Author(s):  
Alberto Munoz Cabanes ◽  
Alfonso Herrero de Egana ◽  
Arturo Romero
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Real Option ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Present Value ◽  
The Real ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
Real Option Analysis ◽  
Project Valuation ◽  
Real Estate Project

Traditional methods used for real estate project valuation, such as the static Net Present Value, have some limitations, as these methods do not consider the possibility of a change in the initial conditions of the project or during its development. On the other hand, the real options approach allows for flexibility in evaluating a real estate project, improving the decision-making process as it helps identify the optimal strategy and timing for the construction phases. The paper deals with evaluating an actual real estate project in La Rioja (Spain) using different options to estimate its final Net Present Value. The results show that the real estate project would be profitable under several scenarios, although the valuations can vary significantly among the different types of options. This is because some options add more value to the project than others, depending on their cost and the uncertainty they eliminate. In contrast, the results obtained using the traditional static method would have led a real estate developer to discard the project completely, as its Net Present Value would have been negative. This confirms that the introduction of flexibility in real estate developments creates additional value by allowing developers and investors to dynamically react to changes in the market, thus making better investment decisions and finding real estate investment opportunities that otherwise would not be considered at all.

COMPUTING COMPETENCIES VALUE THROUGH A FUZZY REAL OPTION MODEL

2004 ◽  
Vol 09 (01) ◽  
Author(s):  
Lorella Cannavacciuolo ◽  
Luigi Iervolino ◽  
Luca Iandoli ◽  
Giuseppe Zollo
Keyword(s):  
Real Option ◽  
Option Model

Airfare price insurance: a real option model

2011 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 5-14 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adishwar K. Jain ◽  
Raymond A.K. Cox
Keyword(s):  
Real Option ◽  
Option Model ◽  
Price Insurance
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