scholarly journals COVID-19 Sex-Age Mortality Modeling - A Use Case of Risk-Based Vaccine Prioritization

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vladimir Shapiro
Keyword(s):  
Regression Model ◽  
Mortality Risk ◽  
Polynomial Regression ◽  
Use Case ◽  
Age Group ◽  
Death Risk ◽  
Modeling Techniques ◽  
Male Sex ◽  
Male To Female ◽  
Polynomial Regression Model

This research builds upon the previous publications claiming that the male sex population and both sex individuals of advanced age are more susceptible to COVID-19’s risks. Relations between sex and age gradients are explored analytically based upon the proposed log-polynomial regression model of COVID-19 mortality. This model enables predicting mortality risk at any arbitrary age, as well as the derivation of several useful secondary metrics:•Sex differential: a ratio of male-to-female death risks for a given age group.•Age parity: age at which both sexes have an equal vulnerability.•Age lag: the number of years to subtract from a male’s age to match a female’s death risk.•Male equal risk age: male’s age at which male’s odds of dying from COVID-19 will equate female’s given the cutoff age. These metrics allow solving such practical problems as, e.g., prioritizing vaccine based on COVID-19 mortality risk associated with sex and age. Modeling techniques, refined in the paper, are by no means unique to COVID-19 and would apply to analyses of other diseases.

scholarly journals Polynomial Regression Model Analysis of Abdominal Wall Tension and Intra-abdominal Pressure in Critically ill Patients

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hao Tang ◽  
Dongchu Zhao ◽  
Chuan Zhang ◽  
Xiaoying Huang ◽  
Dong Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Regression Model ◽  
Critically Ill ◽  
Critically Ill Patients ◽  
Polynomial Regression ◽  
Prognostic Indicators ◽  
Wall Tension ◽  
Abdominal Hypertension ◽  
Abdominal Compliance ◽  
Polynomial Regression Model

Abstract BackgroundAbdominal wall tension (AWT) plays an important role in the pathogenesis of abdominal compliance (AC). This study uses a polynomial regression model to analyze the correlation between intra-vesical pressure(IVP) and AWT in critically ill patients and provides new ideas for the diagnosis and treatment of critically ill patients with intra-abdominal hypertension（IAH）.MethodsA retrospective analysis was conducted in critically ill patients who met the inclusion criteria and were admitted to the Department of intensive care unit of Daping Hospital of Army Medical University from March 14, 2019, to May 23, 2020. According to the IVP on the first day of ICU admission and death within 28 days, the patients were divided into the IAH group (IVP ≥12 mmHg), the non-IAH group, the survival group and the nonsurvival group. The demographic and clinical data, prognostic indicators, AWT and IVP on days 1-7 after entering the ICU, IAH risk factors, and 28-day death risk factors were collected.ResultsA total of 100 patients were enrolled, with an average age of 45.59±11.4 years. There were 55 males (55%), 30 patients from departments of internal medicine (30%), 43 patients from surgery departments (43%), and 27 trauma patients (27%). In the IAH group, there were 50 patients (29 males, 58%), with an average age of 45.28±12.27 years; there were 50 patients (26 males, 52%) in the non-IAH group, with an average age of 45.90±10.58 years. The IVP on the 1st day and the average IVP within 7 days of the IAH group was 18.99（17.52，20.77）mmHg and 19.43（16.87，22.25）mmHg, respectively, which was higher than that of the non-IAH group [ 6.14（3.48，8.70）mmHg, 6.66（2.74，9.08）mmHg], p＜0.001. The AWT on the 1st day and the average AWT within 7 days of the IAH group was 2.89±0.32 N/mm and 2.82±0.46 N/mm, respectively, which was higher than that of the non-IAH group [(2.45±0.29)N/mm,(2.43±0.39)N/mm],p＜0.001.The polynomial regression models showed that the average AWT and IVP on the 1st day and within 7 days were AWTday1 = -2.450×10-3IVP2+9.695×10-2 IVP+2.046，r=0.667（p＜0.0001），and AWTmean = -2.293×10-3IVP2+9.273×10-2 IVP+2.081, respectively. The logistic regression analysis showed that AWTday1 of 2.73-2.97 N/mm increased the patient's 28-day mortality risk (OR: 6.834; 95%: 1.105-42.266, p=0.010).ConclusionsThere is a nonlinear correlation between AWT and IVP in critically ill patients, and a high AWT may indicate poor prognosis.

scholarly journals Forecasting COVID-19 cases in Algeria using logistic growth and polynomial regression models

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohamed LOUNIS ◽  
Babu Malavika
Keyword(s):  
Regression Model ◽  
Logistic Model ◽  
Polynomial Regression ◽  
Logistic Growth ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Logistic Growth Model ◽  
Polynomial Regression Models ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Polynomial Regression Model

Abstract The novel Coronavirus respiratory disease 2019 (COVID-19) is still expanding through the world since it started in Wuhan (China) on December 2019 reporting a number of more than 84.4 millions cases and 1.8 millions deaths on January 3rd 2021.In this work and to forecast the COVID-19 cases in Algeria, we used two models: the logistic growth model and the polynomial regression model using data of COVID-19 cases reported by the Algerian ministry of health from February 25th to December 2nd, 2020. Results showed that the polynomial regression model fitted better the data of COVID-19 in Algeria the Logistic model. The first model estimated the number of cases on January, 19th 2021 at 387673 cases. This model could help the Algerian authorities in the fighting against this disease.

scholarly journals Combining Global Geopotential Models, Digital Elevation Models, and GNSS/Leveling for Precise Local Geoid Determination in Some Mexico Urban Areas: Case Study

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (12) ◽  
pp. 819
Author(s):  
Norberto Alcantar-Elizondo ◽  
Ramon Victorino Garcia-Lopez ◽  
Xochitl Guadalupe Torres-Carillo ◽  
Guadalupe Esteban Vazquez-Becerra
Keyword(s):  
Regression Model ◽  
Numerical Integration ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Polynomial Regression ◽  
Geodetic Network ◽  
Geoid Undulation ◽  
Geopotential Model ◽  
Commission Error ◽  
Standard Deviations ◽  
Polynomial Regression Model

This work shows improvements of geoid undulation values obtained from a high-resolution Global Geopotential Model (GGM), applied to local urban areas. The methodology employed made use of a Residual Terrain Model (RTM) to account for the topographic masses effect on the geoid. This effect was computed applying the spherical tesseroids approach for mass discretization. The required numerical integration was performed by 2-D integration with 1DFFT technique that combines DFT along parallels with direct numerical integration along meridians. In order to eliminate the GGM commission error, independent geoid undulations values obtained from a set of GNSS/leveling stations are employed. A corrector surface from the associated geoid undulation differences at the stations was generated through a polynomial regression model. The corrector surface, in addition to the GGM commission error, also absorbs the GNSS/leveling errors as well as datum inconsistencies and systematic errors of the data. The procedure was applied to five Mexican urban areas that have a geodetic network of GNSS/leveling points, which range from 166 to 811. Two GGM were evaluated: EGM2008 and XGM2019e_2159. EGM2008 was the model that showed relatively better agreement with the GNSS/leveling stations having differences with RMSE values in the range of 8–60 cm and standard deviations of 5–8 cm in four of the networks and 17 cm in one of them. The computed topographic masses contribution to the geoid were relatively small, having standard deviations on the range 1–24 mm. With respect to corrector surface estimations, they turned out to be fairly smooth yielding similar residuals values for two geoid models. This was also the case for the most recent Mexican gravity geoid GGM10. For the three geoid models, the second order polynomial regression model performed slightly better than the first order with differences up to 1 cm. These two models produced geoid correction residuals with a standard deviation in one test area of 14 cm while for the others it was of about 4–7 cm. However, the kriging method that was applied for comparison purposes produced slightly smaller values: 8 cm for one area and 4–6 cm for the others.

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