scholarly journals Revisiting the Demography of Disaster: Population Estimates After Hurricane Maria

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexis R Santos-Lozada
Keyword(s):  
Puerto Rico ◽  
Total Population ◽  
Vital Statistics ◽  
Population Estimates ◽  
Flow Data ◽  
Monthly Basis ◽  
Administrative Records ◽  
Passenger Flow ◽  
Migration Flows ◽  
The U.S

Hurricane María made landfall in Puerto Rico, in September 2017, causing economic damages and affecting the population by increasing temporarily increasing mortality and outgoing passenger flow. Because of the disruption in the migration flows, the volatility of this time series we must approach the production of population estimates, projections and forecasts carefully. Given that population estimates have been difficult to produce for Puerto Rico before Hurricane Maria and even more challenging following this disaster, this paper proposes an application of the demographic balancing equation using administrative records to produce population estimates on a monthly basis for Puerto Rico. A combination of data from: (1) monthly counts for deaths and births obtained from the Puerto Rico Vital Statistics Systems, (2) passenger flow data produced by the U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics, and (3) baseline census counts. I employ this approach to produce monthly estimates of the population for Puerto Rico, and use 2010 Census counts to assess the accuracy of the model. According to the 2010 decennial census, the population of Puerto Rico was 3,725,789 people; by employing the demographic balancing equation approach, the population was estimated to be 3,669,676 people in April 1, 2010. Using this model, I find that after Hurricane Maria, the population of Puerto Rico reached less than 3 million persons in December 2017 (2.97 million). The total population went back to over 3.0 million by January 2018 with an estimated population of 3.02 million people on September 2018.

Rates of Cesarean Delivery Among Puerto Rican Women - Puerto Rico and the U.S. Mainland, 1992-2002

2006 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Varela-Flores ◽  
◽  
H. Vázquez-Rivera ◽  
F. Menacker ◽  
Y. Ahmed ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Puerto Rico ◽  
Puerto Rican ◽  
Cesarean Delivery ◽  
Puerto Rican Women ◽  
The U.S

Geology and hydrogeology of the Caribbean islands aquifer system of the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands

2002 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert A. Renken ◽  
W. C. Ward ◽  
I.P. Gill ◽  
Fernando Gómez-Gómez ◽  
Jesús Rodríguez-Martínez ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Puerto Rico ◽  
Virgin Islands ◽  
Aquifer System ◽  
Caribbean Islands ◽  
The Caribbean ◽  
The U.S

scholarly journals Population estimates of Antillean manatees in Puerto Rico: an analytical framework for aerial surveys using multi-pass removal sampling

2019 ◽  
Vol 100 (4) ◽  
pp. 1340-1349
Author(s):  
Jaime A Collazo ◽  
Matthew J Krachey ◽  
Kenneth H Pollock ◽  
Francisco J Pérez-Aguilo ◽  
Jan P Zegarra ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Puerto Rico ◽  
Detection Probability ◽  
Analytical Framework ◽  
Population Estimates ◽  
High Concentration ◽  
Imperfect Detection ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Management Actions ◽  
Aerial Surveys ◽  
Population Size Estimates

AbstractEffective management of the threatened Antillean manatee (Trichechus manatus manatus) in Puerto Rico requires reliable estimates of population size. Estimates are needed to assess population responses to management actions, and whether recovery objectives have been met. Aerial surveys have been conducted since 1976, but none adjusted for imperfect detection. We summarize surveys since 1976, report on current distribution, and provide population estimates after accounting for apparent detection probability for surveys between June 2010 and March 2014. Estimates in areas of high concentration (hotspots) averaged 317 ± 101, three times higher than unadjusted counts (104 ± 0.56). Adjusted estimates in three areas outside hotspots also differed markedly from counts (75 ± 9.89 versus 19.5 ± 3.5). Average minimum island-wide estimate was 386 ± 89, similar to the maximum estimate of 360 suggested in 2005, but fewer than the 700 recently suggested by the Puerto Rico Manatee Conservation Center. Manatees were more widespread than previously understood. Improving estimates, locally or island-wide, will require stratifying the island differently and greater knowledge about factors affecting detection probability. Sharing our protocol with partners in nearby islands (e.g., Cuba, Jamaica, Hispaniola), whose populations share genetic make-up, would contribute to enhanced regional conservation through better population estimates and tracking range expansion.El manejo efectivo del manatí antillano amenazado en Puerto Rico requiere estimados de tamaños de poblaciónes confiables. Dichas estimaciones poblacionales son necesarias para evaluar las respuestas a las acciones de manejo, y para determinar si los objetivos de recuperación han sido alcanzados. Se han realizado censos aéreos desde 1976, pero ninguno de ellos han sido ajustados para detecciones imperfectas. Aquí resumimos los censos desde 1976, actualizamos la distribución, y reportamos los primeros estimados poblacionales ajustados para la probabilidad de detección aparente en los censos de Junio 2010 a Marzo 2014. Las estimaciones poblacionales en áreas de mayor concentración del manatí promedió 317 ± 103, tres veces más abundante que los conteos sin ajuste (104 ± 0.56). Las estimaciones poblacionales en tres áreas fuera de las áreas de mayor concentración del manatí también fueron marcadamente diferentes (75 ± 9.89 vs 19.5 ± 3.5). El estimado mínimo poblacional en la isla entera fue de 386 ± 89, similar al estimado máximo de 360 sugerido en el año 2005, pero menor a los 700 sugeridos recientemente por el Centro de Conservación de Manatíes de Puerto Rico. Documentamos que el manatí tiene una distribución más amplia de lo que se sabía con anterioridad. El mejoramiento de los estimados poblacionales locales o a nivel de isla requerirá que se estratifique a la isla en forma diferente y que se investiguen los factores que influencian a la probabilidad de detección. Compartir protocolos como este con colaboradores de islas vecinas (por. ej., Cuba, Jamaica, Española), cuyas poblaciones de manatíes comparten material genético, contribuiría a la conservación regional mediante mejores estimaciones poblacionales y monitoreo de la expansión de su ámbito doméstico.

scholarly journals Short-term movement patterns, population estimates and breeding biology of an island endemic bird, the Tristan Thrush

2019 ◽  
Vol 27 (4) ◽  
pp. 245-252
Author(s):  
Peter G. Ryan ◽  
Ben J. Dilley ◽  
Delia Davies ◽  
Trevor Glass ◽  
Fitsum Abadi
Keyword(s):  
Total Population ◽  
Data Augmentation ◽  
Local Population ◽  
Population Estimates ◽  
Limited Information ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Main Island ◽  
Island Endemic ◽  
Core Study ◽  
Land Bird

AbstractThe Tristan Thrush Turdus eremita is the only land bird that survived human colonisation of the main island of Tristan da Cunha and is listed as “Near Threatened”. Population estimates are confounded by the thrushes’ inquisitive and gregarious nature as well as limited information on their movements. We report the first measures of nest densities on Nightingale Island: 6 nests·ha-1 in Phylica arborea woodland and 4–5 nests·ha-1 in tussock habitat, which suggests that the population is approximately double the previous estimate. At Inaccessible Island, we individually color ringed 110 thrushes over two months to track their short-term movements and estimate the local population size. Individuals moved up to 950 m along the coast, but 96% of resightings were < 100 m. A Bayesian data augmentation approach estimated that some 260 thrushes visited the core study area, a 200-m stretch of cobble and boulder beach where birds come to drink, bathe and forage. This result suggests that the population on Inaccessible Island also is substantially larger than reported previously. We estimate the total population to be 8000–15,000 Tristan Thrushes. The main need is a population estimate for the nominate subspecies on the main island of Tristan.

scholarly journals Predictions of Tropical Forest Biomass and Biomass Growth Based on Stand Height or Canopy Area Are Improved by Landsat-Scale Phenology across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 123 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Gwenzi ◽  
Eileen Helmer ◽  
Xiaolin Zhu ◽  
Michael Lefsky ◽  
Humfredo Marcano-Vega
Keyword(s):  
Puerto Rico ◽  
Tropical Forest ◽  
Forest Biomass ◽  
Virgin Islands ◽  
Biomass Growth ◽  
Canopy Area ◽  
Stand Height ◽  
The U.S
Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document