A Way to Europe: New Refugees’ Migration Patterns Revealed

The final destination country for refugees heading to Europe may be a changing one depending on various factors, such as the relocation program at the EU level, their ability to make decisions, geographic factors, finances, available routes, visa options, networks, chance, labor markets, etc., but for many of them their choices are limited. The purpose of this paper is to show how refugees select their destination countries, by looking at similarities across European countries. We aim to explain how country-specific factors may relate to the magnitude of migration flows, employing cluster and network analysis, and connecting meso- and macro-levels. The variables considered in our analysis fall under the four types of factors for host countries described by Van Hear, Bakewell, and Long (2012). Our analysis reveals that host countries in Europe can be grouped into four clusters: (i) Top Destination Economically Performing Countries; (ii) Emergent Destination Countries; (iii) Periphery and Less Economically Performing Countries; and (iv) Outlier Countries.

Does Aid Drive Migration? Evidence from a Shift-Share Instrument∗

Foreign aid payments have been a key policy response by Global North countries to reduce increased migration flows from the Global South. In this article, we contribute to the literature on the relationship between aid and international migration flows and estimate the contemporaneous effect of bilateral aid payments on bilateral, international migration flows. The fundamental problem in analyzing this relationship is endogeneity, or reverse causality. To address this issue and achieve causal inference, we use a shift-share, or Bartik, instrument. Examining migration flows between 198 origin countries and 16 OECD destination countries over 36 years (1980−2015), we find a positive relationship between aid and migration. A ten-percent increase in aid payments will increase migration by roughly 2 percent. We further document non-linearity in the relationship between aid and migration and find an inverted U-shaped relationship between aid and migration flows. The findings presented here have implications for the design of bilateral and multilateral aid policies and for achieving various United Nations Sustainable Development Goals by stressing the importance of a better coordination between aid and immigration policies.

Complex climate and network effects on internal migration in South Africa revealed by a network model

Climate variability and climate change influence human migration both directly and indirectly through a variety of channels that are controlled by individual and household socioeconomic, cultural, and psychological processes as well as public policies and network effects. Characterizing and predicting migration flows are thus extremely complex and challenging. Among the quantitative methods available for predicting such flows is the widely used gravity model that ignores the network autocorrelation among flows and thus may lead to biased estimation of the climate effects of interest. In this study, we use a network model, the additive and multiplicative effects model for network (AMEN), to investigate the effects of climate variability, migrant networks, and their interactions on South African internal migration. Our results indicate that prior migrant networks have a significant influence on migration and can modify the association between climate variability and migration flows. We also reveal an otherwise obscure difference in responses to these effects between migrants moving to urban and non-urban destinations. With different metrics, we discover diverse drought effects on these migrants; for example, the negative standardized precipitation index (SPI) with a timescale of 12 months affects the non-urban-oriented migrants’ destination choices more than the rainy season rainfall deficit or soil moisture do. Moreover, we find that socioeconomic factors such as the unemployment rate are more significant to urban-oriented migrants, while some unobserved factors, possibly including the abolition of apartheid policies, appear to be more important to non-urban-oriented migrants.

The Balkan Migration Route

The purpose of the chapter is to assess and link the issues of migration flows with the accession process of the Balkan countries and the European Union enlargement policy. The chapter argues that despite the recent changes in the EU commission's policy towards the candidate countries there is more to be done to foster the process and encourage domestic reforms in the countries. The chapter examines the process of migration along the Balkan migration route from 2001 till 2021 and its influence on the European Union policy and the policy of Balkan countries. The author links the issue of migration flows with the accession process of the Balkan countries, traces the connection between the issue of migration flows with the European Union enlargement, and analyzes the legal steps taken by the EU and the countries of the region in order to control the process of migration.

Legal Framework of Labor Migration Governance in the Eurasian Economic Union and the European Communities: Comparative Analysis

This article provides a comparative analysis of the legal regulation of labor migration in regional integration organizations: the European Communities (ECs) and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). Methodologically, we argue that a synchronous comparison of the European Union (EU) in its current shape and the EAEU is rather inadequate and draw on a diachronic comparison of labor migration regulation in the EAEU and the ECs. On the one hand, we identify a number of important differences. We show, in particular, that while regulatory mechanisms in the EEC aimed at stimulating new migration flows, in the post-Soviet space mechanisms of regional migration governance provide the existing migration flows with an appropriate normative framework. We also show that in the case of the EAEU, the founding Treaty provided for a number of essential social rights for workers from EAEU Member States, whereas in the EEC these rights appeared at a much later stage. Regulation of labor migration in the EEC and the EAEU also differs in terms of distribution of competencies in this area between national and Community / Union levels. On the other hand, we also find a number of similarities, which hint at dynamics of policy learning. This is, in particular, evident in the development of mechanisms aimed at protection of migrants’ rights. This is also the case of the Agreement on pensions for workers of the EAEU member states, which seems to borrow from the EU experience opting for coordination of Member States’ retirement systems instead of their unification. Overall, some of EEC/EU ‘best practices’ have contributed to important positive developments in the regulation of intra-Union labor migration in the EAEU.

Improving the Level of Economic Development and Social Welfare in Rural Areas for Young People

One of the three global goals set by states is to eradicate poverty and ensure economic and social progress for all. Young people in many low- and middle-income countries face exceptional challenges in finding their place in a globalizing economy. Integrating hundreds of millions of young people into the labor market is one of the greatest global development challenges for decades to come. Rural populations all over the world are aging. The role of young people as drivers of change in agricultural and food systems and their place in rural labor markets is receiving increasing attention at the global level, especially as a result of increased global migration flows. How can this problem be transformed into a “youth” driving force for rural development? This paper argues for leveraging growing demand for agricultural products and recent advances in the agricultural sector to expand youth employment opportunities and promote attractive decent jobs, especially green jobs, in rural areas. The paper analyses the situation in our daily life, in which the proportion of the worldwide countries are dealing with the problem related to the economic development and social welfare in rural areas. The paper includes the following issues such as the attractiveness and creation of opportunities for youth and consideration of them as the main partners in rural areas play a crucial role nowadays. Moreover, green jobs as well are effective and efficient in enhancement of both productivity and sustainability of agricultural sphere. The question is how to transform this challenge into an opportunity and harness the energy of young people as a driving force for development. The role of young people as drivers of change in agro-food systems and their place in rural labor markets is receiving increasing attention at the global level, especially as a result of increased global migration flows. A top priority for developed and developing countries is to systematically mainstream youth rural decent employment issues into programs and investment projects in agriculture, value chains, agro-industry development, rural transformation, and sustainable food systems. This paper argues for expanding employment opportunities for youth through the creation of decent jobs, especially green jobs, in rural areas.

Emigration and Political Contestation

How does migration affect global patterns of political violence and protest? While political scientists have examined the links between trade and conflict, less attention has been paid to the links between migration and conflict. In this paper, we show that greater emigration reduces domestic political violence by providing exit opportunities for aggrieved citizens and economic benefits to those who remain. Emigration also reduces non-violent forms of political contestation, including protests and strikes, implying that high emigration rates can produce relatively quiescent populations. However, larger flows of emigrants to democracies can increase non-violent protest in autocracies, as exposure to freer countries spreads democratic norms and the tools of peaceful opposition. We use instrumental variables analysis to account for the endogeneity of migration flows and find robust results for a range of indicators of civil violence and protest from 1960 to 2010.

MIGRATION AND CORONACRISIS: CONSEQUENCES, PROSPECTS, DIRECTIONS OF RESPONSE

Labor migration abroad has a significant impact on the socio-economic and demographic development of Ukraine. Therefore, awareness of the consequences of the pandemic for migration processes, taking into account the migration component in developing a strategy for overcoming the crisis is extremely important. The article focuses on finding the key answers to adequately respond to migration challenges. The question is: ‘How does the crisis affect the situation of migrants? How does the crisis affect the intensity and direction of migration flows? How will these changes affect the development of the Ukrainian economy and society?’ There is not enough data on the dynamics of modern international migration. Therefore, the review of the hypothetical migration situation, as well as the development of recommendations for possible policy solutions, are based not only on their analysis, but also on generalizing the effects of previous economic crises on migration processes, identification and extrapolation to modern realities of their essential characteristics. During the crisis, the demand for additional labor from abroad is declining, but this leads not so much to the return of migrants to their homeland, as to a decrease in emigration, but rather to its postponement. Not all countries and not all sectors of the economy are experiencing the crisis in the same way, so there is a flow of migrants from one area of employment to another, from the most affected by the crisis countries to more prosperous. It is not so much the power of migration flows that changes, but their direction and characteristics. The return of migrants to Ukraine has not become widespread, it is only temporary, moreover, if the economic situation in the country will deteriorate, and in the countries of destination economic recovery will be successful, labor migration may intensify. Given the continuing labor migration from Ukraine, the state should significantly intensify its efforts to protect the rights and interests of Ukrainian citizens abroad. It is necessary to ensure access of migrants to medical services, social assistance, unemployment benefits, etc., to intensify the negotiation process with the countries of residence of migrant workers. Particular attention needs to be paid to supporting the repatriation flow, which can help reduce the shortage of workers needed by the economy, to serve a faster way out of the crisis.

The “Don’t come/Go back home” continuum: the use of storytelling in Migration Information Campaigns

Campaigns to encourage return or deter migration have become a priority for European governments, revealing a new way of managing migration flows to Europe. If scholars from social sciences have investigated these campaigns, no study in the field of discourse analysis addressed the argumentative discursive mechanisms at work in shaping migrants’ perceptions. The present research analyses the use of storytelling in migration information campaigns (MICs) by comparing two online European campaigns: a dissuasive campaign (tellingtherealstory.org) and a persuasive campaign (retourvolontaire.be). First, the discursive features of each website are described, highlighting the central place given to migrant’s stories. Second, a narrative and lexical analysis is conducted on these stories to investigate the way in which they constitute the argumentative dimension of these campaigns’ discourses. The results show that the stories of both dissuasive and persuasive campaigns converge towards the same moral: migratory projects are doomed to fail. These migration information campaigns can be seen as part of what we call the “Don’t come/Go back home” continuum

Development of an Information System for Monitoring Attractiveness of Municipalities in the Republic of Bashkortostan

At present, most regions of the Russian Federation are experiencing an increase in migration flows, which has a significant impact on the overall decline in population. At the same time most of them have already developed regional migration policies containing basic guidelines for migration regulation. One of such regions is the Republic of Bashkortostan, where in the recent period the number of active population taking part in both intraregional and external migration has increased significantly. At the same time, the spatial mobility of the population has an impact on the social and economic development of territories. These circumstances lead to increased attention on the part of regional authorities in state regulation improvement. In this connection, the main goal of the paper is to develop an information system for monitoring the attractiveness of municipalities of the Republic of Bashkortostan using geoinformation technologies. The conceptual model “Informational system of attractiveness monitoring of municipalities of the Republic of Bashkortostan” is presented during the research, in which units of visualization, parametric analysis and spatial scaling are described. An algorithm information system was also developed which describes its functionality, such as: assessment of the level of migration attractiveness of the territory, zoning the territory according to the level of migration attractiveness; editing and search of data; scenario prediction of the level of migration activity of the population (number of departures, number of arrivals, migration growth); visual representation of the direction of migration flows; reporting. With the help of this tool, the forecast of the level of attractiveness of the municipalities of the Republic of Bashkortostan is made taking into account the realization of the regional program “Complex development of monocities”. The information system for monitoring the attractiveness of municipalities of the Republic of Bashkortostan can serve as a scientific and methodological basis for state migration policy improvement. The information system for attractiveness monitoring of municipalities of the Republic of Bashkortostan can serve as a scientific and methodological basis for the improvement of state migration policy.