Caveats on COVID-19 herd immunity threshold: the Spain case

After a year of living with the COVID-19 pandemic and its associated consequences, hope looms on the horizon thanks to vaccines. The question is what percentage of the population needs to be immune to reach herd immunity, that is to avoid future outbreaks. The answer depends on the basic reproductive number, R0, a key epidemiological parameter measuring the transmission capacity of a disease. In addition to the virus itself, R0 also depends on the characteristics of the population and their environment. Additionally, the estimate of R0 depends on the methodology used, the accuracy of data and the generation time distribution. This study aims to reflect on the difficulties surrounding R0 estimation, and provides Spain with a threshold for herd immunity, for which we considered the different combinations of all the factors that affect the R0 of the Spanish population. Estimates of R0 range from 1.39 to 3.10 for the ancestral SARS-CoV-2 variant, with the largest differences produced by the method chosen to estimate R0. With these values, the herd immunity threshold (HIT) ranges from 28.1 to 67.7%, which would have made 70% a realistic upper bound for Spain. However, the imposition of the delta variant (B.1.617.2 lineage) in late summer 2021 may have expanded the range of R0 to 4.02–8.96 and pushed the upper bound of the HIT to 90%.

Multi-surveyor detection-mark-redetection as a powerful tool for butterfly population monitoring in the pre-imaginal stage

1. For many elusive insect species, which are difficult to cover by standard monitoring schemes, innovative monitoring methods are needed to gain robust data on population trends. We suggest a monitoring of overwintering larvae for the endangered nymphalid butterfly Limenitis reducta. 2. We tested one removal and three detection-mark-redetection (DMR) approaches in a field study in the “Alb-Donau” region, Germany. We replaced movement of the study organisms by random movement of multiple different surveyors, and we examined the model assumption of equal detectability using simulations. 3. Our results indicate that multi-surveyor removal/DMR techniques are suitable for estimating abundance of overwintering L. reducta larvae. Detection probabilities varied with surveyor experience and the uncertainty of population estimates increased with a decrease in personnel expenditure. Estimated larval densities on a spruce clear-cut ranged between one and three individuals per 100 m². 4. We suggest a detection-mark-redetection (DMR) approach with three trained surveyors for the monitoring of L. reducta populations in the pre-imaginal stage. Besides L. reducta, the proposed method is likely to be suitable for other insect taxa with specific immobile life-stages and some sessile organisms, e.g. corals, elusive plants, or fungi.

Unobtrusive measures of prejudice: Estimating percentages of public beliefs and behaviours

This study was concerned with how accurate people are in their knowledge of population norms and statistics concerning such things as the economic, health and religious status of a nation and how those estimates are related to their own demography (e.g age, sex), ideology (political and religious beliefs) and intelligence. Just over 600 adults were asked to make 25 population estimates for Great Britain, including religious (church/mosque attendance) and economic (income, state benefits, car/house ownership) factors as well as estimates like the number of gay people, immigrants, smokers etc. They were reasonably accurate for things like car ownership, criminal record, vegetarianism and voting but seriously overestimated numbers related to minorities such as the prevalence of gay people, muslims and people not born in the UK. Conversely there was a significant underestimation of people receiving state benefits, having a criminal record or a private health insurance. Correlations between select variables and magnitude and absolute accuracy showed religiousness and IQ most significant correlates. Religious people were less, and intelligent people more, accurate in their estimates. A factor analysis of the estimates revealed five interpretable factors. Regressions were calculated onto these factors and showed how these individual differences accounted for as much as 14% of the variance. Implications and limitations are acknowledged.

Measuring the Size of the U.S. Jewish Population: New Estimates from a Pew Research Center Survey of Jewish Americans

This paper presents new estimates of the U.S. Jewish population based on a 2019–2020 Pew Research Center survey, which used a stratified address-based sample of all Americans to screen more than 68,000 respondents and complete full interviews with more than 5,800 adults who are Jewish or have some kind of connection to Judaism. We estimate there are about 5.8 million adult Jews living in the United States, including 4.2 million who identify as Jewish by religion and 1.5 million who are Jews of no religion. In addition, 1.8 million children live with at least one adult Jew and are being raised Jewish in some way. Altogether, about 7.5 million people, or 2.4% of the total U.S. population, are Jewish. We present population estimates for additional detailed categories of Jewish adults and children in Jewish households that not available in any other recent source.

Prevalence of Tympanic Membrane Perforations Among Adolescents, Adults, and Older Adults in the United States

Tympanic membrane (TM) perforations can occur at any age, but limited population-level data are available. Using data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, we performed a cross-sectional analysis of the prevalence and population estimates for TM perforations among individuals ≥12 years old in the United States. Overall, TM perforations have a prevalence of 2.1% (95% CI, 1.7%-2.6%), corresponding to 5.8 million Americans. Across the life course, older adults have the highest prevalence of TM perforations at 6.1% (95% CI, 4.7%-7.6%), corresponding to nearly 3 million Americans, as opposed to a prevalence of 0.6% (95% CI, 0.3%-0.9%) in adolescents, which equates to 0.2 million Americans. Males and females have a similar prevalence at 2.3% (95% CI, 1.6%-3.0%) among males and 2.0% (95% CI, 1.4%-2.6%) among females. These prevalence and population estimates provide the first US-based population estimates of the burden of TM perforations over the life course.

Combining patient reported outcomes and EHR data to understand population level treatment needs: correcting for selection bias in the migraine signature study

Background Electronic health records (EHR) data can be used to understand population level quality of care especially when supplemented with patient reported data. However, survey non-response can result in biased population estimates. As a case study, we demonstrate that EHR and survey data can be combined to estimate primary care population prescription treatment status for migraine stratified by migraine disability, without and with adjustment for survey non-response bias. We selected disability as it is associated with survey participation and patterns of prescribing for migraine. Methods A stratified random sample of Sutter Health adult primary care (PC) patients completed a digital survey about headache, migraine, and migraine related disability. The survey data from respondents with migraine were combined with their EHR data to estimate the proportion who had prescription orders for acute or preventive migraine treatments. Separate proportions were also estimated for those with mild disability (denoted “mild migraine”) versus moderate to severe disability (denoted mod-severe migraine) without and with correction, using the inverse propensity weighting method, for non-response bias. We hypothesized that correction for non-response bias would result in smaller differences in proportions who had a treatment order by migraine disability status. Results The response rate among 28,268 patients was 8.2%. Among survey respondents, 37.2% had an acute treatment order and 16.8% had a preventive treatment order. The response bias corrected proportions were 26.2% and 11.6%, respectively, and these estimates did not differ from the total source population estimates (i.e., 26.4% for acute treatments, 12.0% for preventive treatments), validating the correction method. Acute treatment orders proportions were 32.3% for mild migraine versus 37.3% for mod-severe migraine and preventive treatment order proportions were 12.0% for mild migraine and 17.7% for mod-severe migraine. The response bias corrected proportions for acute treatments were 24.8% for mild migraine and 26.6% for mod-severe migraine and the proportions for preventive treatment were 8.1% for mild migraine and 12.0% for mod-severe migraine. Conclusions In this study, we combined survey data with EHR data to better understand treatment needs among patients diagnosed with migraine. Migraine-related disability is directly related to preventive treatment orders but less so for acute treatments. Estimates of treatment status by self-reported disability status were substantially over-estimated among those with moderate to severe migraine-related disability without correction for non-response bias.

Morbidity of Children's Population of Lermontov City, Located in the Uranium Legacy Area

Purpose: To carry out assessment the health status of the child population of the Lermontov city. This child population living in the area, of uranium legacy, and they are critical group of the population in terms of sensitivity to adverse environmental factors. Materials and methods: The object of the study was the morbidity of children 0–14 years old (primary, chronic, oncological). The research material was the data of reporting forms of medical statistics, presented in the following forms: 7 – information on malignant neoplasms and 12 - information on the number of diseases in children. The development included data from Clinical hospital # 101 of the FMBA of Russia for 2014–2018. Statistical data processing was carried out using standard methods used for the analysis of biomedical data. Results: The morbidity of children 0–14 years old in Lermontov in 2014–2018 averaged 2310.9 ± 115.7 per 1000. In the structure of morbidity, the leading places were occupied by diseases of the respiratory system – 59.2 %, the digestive system – 8.8 %, skin and subcutaneous tissue 5.5 %, trauma and poisoning – 4, 8 % and infectious and parasitic diseases. The frequency of chronic morbidity does not exceed the population estimates – 73.0 ± 4.1 per 1000. The peculiarity of chronic morbidity is the relatively high incidence of skin diseases – 25.3 % and the musculoskeletal system – 20.4 %. The morbidity of children in the first year of life is 2348.0 ± 135.1 per 1000. A feature of the morbidity structure is the high incidence of respiratory diseases, which makes up 66.3 % of the total morbidity, with population estimates – 20–30 %. Conclusion: The increased radiation background can be considered as one of the possible negative environmental factors affecting the health of the population.