Appendix A: Federal Election Results 2006–2019

2021 ◽  
pp. 271-272
2016 ◽  
Vol 49 (2) ◽  
pp. 289-310 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jean-Philippe Gauvin ◽  
Chris Chhim ◽  
Mike Medeiros

AbstractThe 2011 Canadian federal election results changed the face of federal politics in Quebec. In a sudden and spectacular reversal of electoral fortunes, BQ support crumbled while that of the NDP surged. While most commentators focused exclusively on the 2011 election itself to explain what had happened, we offer an interpretation that takes a longitudinal approach. Using data from the Canadian Election Study and political party manifestos from 2006 to 2011, we propose a three-dimensional proximity model of voter/party congruence to explore the evolution of the ideological stances of Quebec voters and parties. Empirical results suggest these ideological distances between the NDP and Quebec voters decreased over time, whereas the BQ has distanced itself from voters. Furthermore, ideological distances between party and voters are a significant predictor of vote.


1994 ◽  
Vol 27 (1) ◽  
pp. 53-79 ◽  
Author(s):  
Donley T. Studlar ◽  
Richard E. Matland

AbstractIn the 1980s, Canada went from having one of the lowest levels of female representation in its national legislature to having one of the highest among countries with single-member district electoral systems. The authors examine the common assertion that this increase was largely due to the surprising Progressive Conservative landslide in the 1984 federal election. By simulating plausible alternative election results they find there would have been a substantial increase in the number of women in the parliament, regardless of how the vote split in 1984. The simulations are followed by probit analyses for 1980, 1984 and 1988 which examine what factors affected the probability a major-party candidate would be a woman and what factors affected the probability that a successful candidate would be a woman.


2021 ◽  
Vol 52 (3) ◽  
pp. 685-689
Author(s):  
Oskar Hartmann

The author advocates a reform of the election system in favour of multi-nominal constitu­encies (see ZParl, no . 4-2019, p . 906 ff .) . It has to be noticed, however, that the political debate shows strong inertia in the present system, which has prevailed since 1949 and which consists of one-person-constituencies and Land candidate lists . Therefore, a second­best solution seems to be to continue the system as such but to organize the assignment of constituency seats in double constituencies . Each double constituency would assign two seats to the strongest or the two most-strongest parties within its area, applying the meth­ods of d’Hondt or Sainte Laguë . Tentatively calculated on the basis of the federal election results of 2017 and 2021, the suggested reform would not produce overhang seats (“Über­hangmandate”) . If this proposal were combined with a reduced number of constituencies, the probability of overhang seats would drop further . In this proposal single constituencies might not have a direct representative in Parliament . Directly elected MPs of neighbouring single constituencies or elected MPs of the Land candidate lists would become their co-representatives .


2010 ◽  
Vol 29 (4) ◽  
pp. 402-418 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andranik Tumasjan ◽  
Timm O. Sprenger ◽  
Philipp G. Sandner ◽  
Isabell M. Welpe

This study investigates whether microblogging messages on Twitter validly mirror the political landscape off-line and can be used to predict election results. In the context of the 2009 German federal election, we conducted a sentiment analysis of over 100,000 messages containing a reference to either a political party or a politician. Our results show that Twitter is used extensively for political deliberation and that the mere number of party mentions accurately reflects the election result. The tweets' sentiment (e.g., positive and negative emotions associated with a politician) corresponds closely to voters' political preferences. In addition, party sentiment profiles reflect the similarity of political positions between parties. We derive suggestions for further research and discuss the use of microblogging services to aggregate dispersed information.


Author(s):  
Magdalena Obermaier ◽  
Thomas Koch ◽  
Christian Baden

Abstract. Opinion polls are a well-established part of political news coverage, especially during election campaigns. At the same time, there has been controversial debate over the possible influences of such polls on voters’ electoral choices. The most prominent influence discussed is the bandwagon effect: It states that voters tend to support the expected winner of an upcoming election, and use polls to determine who the likely winner will be. This study investigated the mechanisms underlying the effect. In addition, we inquired into the role of past electoral performances of a candidate and analyzed how these (as well as polls) are used as heuristic cues for the assessment of a candidate’s personal characteristics. Using an experimental design, we found that both polls and past election results influence participants’ expectations regarding which candidate will succeed. Moreover, higher competence was attributed to a candidate, if recipients believe that the majority of voters favor that candidate. Through this attribution of competence, both information about prior elections and current polls shaped voters’ electoral preferences.


1997 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robin Buhrke ◽  
Keyword(s):  

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