Sitzzuteilung in Doppelwahlkreisen: Ein Vorschlag für eine sanfte Reform

2021 ◽  
Vol 52 (3) ◽  
pp. 685-689
Author(s):  
Oskar Hartmann
Keyword(s):  
The Political ◽  
Present System ◽  
Political Debate ◽  
Federal Election ◽  
Election System ◽  
Election Results

The author advocates a reform of the election system in favour of multi-nominal constitu­encies (see ZParl, no . 4-2019, p . 906 ff .) . It has to be noticed, however, that the political debate shows strong inertia in the present system, which has prevailed since 1949 and which consists of one-person-constituencies and Land candidate lists . Therefore, a second­best solution seems to be to continue the system as such but to organize the assignment of constituency seats in double constituencies . Each double constituency would assign two seats to the strongest or the two most-strongest parties within its area, applying the meth­ods of d’Hondt or Sainte Laguë . Tentatively calculated on the basis of the federal election results of 2017 and 2021, the suggested reform would not produce overhang seats (“Über­hangmandate”) . If this proposal were combined with a reduced number of constituencies, the probability of overhang seats would drop further . In this proposal single constituencies might not have a direct representative in Parliament . Directly elected MPs of neighbouring single constituencies or elected MPs of the Land candidate lists would become their co-representatives .

Election Forecasts With Twitter

2010 ◽  
Vol 29 (4) ◽  
pp. 402-418 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andranik Tumasjan ◽  
Timm O. Sprenger ◽  
Philipp G. Sandner ◽  
Isabell M. Welpe
Keyword(s):  
Sentiment Analysis ◽  
Political Party ◽  
Negative Emotions ◽  
The Political ◽  
Federal Election ◽  
Election Result ◽  
Political Landscape ◽  
Political Preferences ◽  
Election Results ◽  
Positive And Negative Emotions

This study investigates whether microblogging messages on Twitter validly mirror the political landscape off-line and can be used to predict election results. In the context of the 2009 German federal election, we conducted a sentiment analysis of over 100,000 messages containing a reference to either a political party or a politician. Our results show that Twitter is used extensively for political deliberation and that the mere number of party mentions accurately reflects the election result. The tweets' sentiment (e.g., positive and negative emotions associated with a politician) corresponds closely to voters' political preferences. In addition, party sentiment profiles reflect the similarity of political positions between parties. We derive suggestions for further research and discuss the use of microblogging services to aggregate dispersed information.

Election 1999: Prospects for the Consolidation of Democracy in South Africa

1999 ◽  
Vol 27 (2) ◽  
pp. 2-8
Author(s):  
Khehla Shubane ◽  
Louise Stack
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Party System ◽  
African National Congress ◽  
The Political ◽  
Political Debate ◽  
National Unity ◽  
Majority Party ◽  
Dominant Party ◽  
National Congress ◽  
Election Results

The African National Congress (ANC) emerged from South Africa’s 1999 election in a greatly strengthened position. Now, not only is the constitutionally obligatory five-year period of a government of national unity over—which means that the ANC as the majority party is entitled to rule the country on its own—but the ANC increased its already strong majority in Parliament to just short of two-thirds.In this article, we first discuss the context of the political debate in which the election took place, as well as the outcome of the election. We then examine the prospects for the consolidation of democracy in South Africa in light of the election results and in relation to the issues surrounding electoral procedure, a dominant party system, and opposition politics within the context of a still very much racially divided society.

Ein Ende mit Schrecken – Frankreich nach den Wahlen

2017 ◽  
Vol 47 (188) ◽  
pp. 495-504 ◽  
Author(s):  
Felix Syrovatka
Keyword(s):  
Political System ◽  
Political Support ◽  
The Political ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
Political Situation ◽  
Economic Transformations ◽  
Crisis Of Representation ◽  
Election Results ◽  
Deep Crisis

The presidential and parliamentary elections were a political earthquake for the French political system. While the two big parties experienced massive losses of political support, the rise of new political formations took place. Emmanuel Macron is not only the youngest president of the V. Republic so far, he is also the first president not to be supported by either one of the two biggest parties. This article argues that the election results are an expression of a deep crisis of representation in France that is rooted in the economic transformations of the 1970s. The article analyses the political situation after the elections and tries to give an outlook on further political developments in France.

2018 Fiji Election Results: Patterns of Voting by Provinces, Rural-Urban Localities, and by Candidates

2020 ◽  
Vol 40 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Haruo Nakagawa
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Electoral System ◽  
Interesting Case ◽  
The Political ◽  
Quantitative Analyses ◽  
Election Results

Akin to the previous, 2014 event, with no data on voter ethnicity, no exit polls, and few post-election analyses, the 2018 Fiji election results remain something of a mystery despite the fact that there had been a significant swing in voting in favour of Opposition political parties. There have been several studies about the election results, but most of them have been done without much quantitative analyses. This study examines voting patterns of Fiji’s 2018 election by provinces, and rural-urban localities, as well as by candidates, and also compares the 2018 and 2014 elections by spending a substantial time classifying officially released data by polling stations and individual candidates. Some of the data are then further aggregated according to the political parties to which those candidates belonged. The current electoral system in Fiji is a version of a proportional system, but its use is rare and this study will provide an interesting case study of the Open List Proportional System. At the end of the analyses, this study considers possible reasons for the swing in favour of the Opposition.

Defining Liberalism: the first Home Rule crisis in the Scottish capital

2016 ◽  
Vol 67 (1) ◽  
pp. 6-30
Author(s):  
M. K. Thompson
Keyword(s):  
The Political ◽  
Perceived Threat ◽  
Home Rule ◽  
Political Debate ◽  
Traditional Assessment ◽  
Core Value ◽  
Irish Question

The nature of liberalism was at the heart of the political debate surrounding the first Irish Home Rule bill in Edinburgh. The rhetoric of the campaign was dominated by the fight for the ownership of liberalism, and it was pivotal for all the candidates standing in Edinburgh to present themselves as liberals, and to define their stance on the Irish question by associating it to a core value of liberalism. Democracy and the protection of minorities were the two values used to justify the candidates’ stances on Irish Home Rule, and the perceived threat of Irish Catholicism was often the focus of the associated arguments. The discourse that resulted from this justification centred on a fight to define the essence of liberalism. Therefore, the Irish Home Rule debate in Edinburgh demonstrates that the Liberal split was more nuanced than the traditional assessment of a Whig versus Radical split. Instead, the debate on the Irish question signified the struggle of liberalism.

Issue Dimensions and Cleavages: How the Russian Experience Helps Us to Look for Cross-Points

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 206-235
Author(s):  
Yury Korgunyuk
Keyword(s):  
Factor Analysis ◽  
The Political ◽  
Regression Analyses ◽  
Issue Salience ◽  
Empirical Base ◽  
Party Positions ◽  
Starting Point ◽  
Weak Points ◽  
Alternative Methodology ◽  
Election Results

Abstract The article analyzes the weak points of the Manifesto Project’s methodology, such as its emphasis on issue salience, instead of issue positions; bringing the content of manifestos under too broad categories formulated at the beginning of the project; not quite the appropriate technique of factor analysis etc. An alternative methodology is proposed that focuses on party positions on issues which generate the largest polarization in the political space. It also enriches the empirical base of the studies and adjusts the technique of factor analysis. In order to reveal political cleavages inside these dimensions, the so called electoral cleavages (factors of territorial differences in voting for various parties) are taken as a starting point: factor loadings of parties in the electoral and political spaces are compared through correlation and regression analyses. The proposed methodology is applied to an analysis of election results in Russia (2016) and Germany (2017).

The Global Compact for Safe, Orderly and Regular Migration: a kaleidoscope of international law

2020 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. 253-268
Author(s):  
Vincent Chetail
Keyword(s):  
International Law ◽  
Soft Law ◽  
The Political ◽  
Political Debate ◽  
Global Compact ◽  
Legal Norms ◽  
Hybrid Character ◽  
Normative Content

AbstractThe Global Compact for Safe, Orderly and Regular Migration has prompted an intense political debate at both the international and domestic levels. Most controversies focus on its legal stance and highlight the hybrid character of the Compact as a soft-law instrument. While acknowledging the political nature of the Compact, this paper delves into its legal dimensions from the perspective of international law. This inquiry into its normative content discloses three main features: (1) the Compact is not a codification of international legal norms governing migration; it is an instrument of both (2) consolidation and (3) expansion of international law to foster inter-governmental co-operation and promote safe, orderly and regular migration.

Nicaragua: De-democratization and Regime Crisis

2020 ◽  
Vol 62 (2) ◽  
pp. 117-136 ◽  
Author(s):  
Salvador Martí i Puig ◽  
Macià Serra
Keyword(s):  
Authoritarian Regime ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
The Political ◽  
Political Protest ◽  
Hybrid Regimes ◽  
Political Debate ◽  
Key Issues ◽  
The Government ◽  
Nicaraguan Politics ◽  
Regime Crisis

ABSTRACTThe aim of this article is to analyze three key issues in current Nicaraguan politics and in the political debate surrounding hybrid regimes: de-democratization, political protest, and the fall of presidencies. First, it analyzes the process of de-democratization that has been taking place in Nicaragua since 2000. It shows that the 2008 elections were not competitive but characteristic of an electoral authoritarian regime. Second, it reflects on the kind of regime created in Nicaragua under Daniel Ortega’s mandate, focusing on the system’s inability to process any kind of protest and dissent. Third, it examines the extent to which the protests that broke out in April 2018 may predict the early end to Ortega’s presidency, or whether Nicaragua’s political crisis may lead to negotiations between the government and the opposition.

The Chaste Parricide: Murder, Femininity and the Subversion of Authority in the Reception of the First Performance of Shelley’s The Cenci, 1886

2017 ◽  
Vol 44 (2) ◽  
pp. 192-211
Author(s):  
Lee Michael-Berger
Keyword(s):  
Social Context ◽  
Sixteenth Century ◽  
Public Sphere ◽  
Mass Culture ◽  
The Political ◽  
Political Debate ◽  
The Public ◽  
True Story ◽  
The Public Sphere

The story of The Cenci’s first production is intriguing, since the play, based on the true story of a sixteenth-century Roman family and revolving around the theme of parricide, was published in 1819 but was denied a licence for many years. The Shelley Society finally presented it in 1886, although it was vetoed by the Lord Chamberlain, and to avoid censorship it had to be proclaimed as a private event. This article examines the political and social context of the production, especially the reception of actress’s Alma Murray’s rendition of Beatrice, the parricide, thus probing the ways in which The Cenci question was reframed, and placed in the public sphere, despite censorship. The staging of the play became the site of a political debate and the performance – an act of defiance against institutionalised power, but also an act of defiance against the alleged tyranny of mass culture.

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