Before-and-After Empirical Bayes Evaluation of Automated Mobile Speed Enforcement on Urban Arterial Roads

2015 ◽  
Vol 2516 (1) ◽  
pp. 44-52 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ran Li ◽  
Karim El-Basyouny ◽  
Amy Kim
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Bayes ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Speed Enforcement ◽  
Urban Arterial

scholarly journals Evaluation of Section Speed Enforcement System Using Empirical Bayes Approach and Turning Point Analysis

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-11
Author(s):  
Jisup Shim ◽  
Oh Hoon Kwon ◽  
Shin Hyoung Park ◽  
Sungbong Chung ◽  
Kitae Jang
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Bayes ◽  
Turning Point ◽  
Safety Data ◽  
Travel Speed ◽  
Crash Risk ◽  
Vehicle Speed ◽  
Traffic Crash ◽  
Point Analysis ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Speed Enforcement

Speeding is a major risk factor for traffic-related injuries. As a countermeasure against speeding, automated speed enforcement systems (ASES) have been deployed in many countries. However, drivers’ awareness of enforcement locations allows themselves to adjust vehicle speeds in the vicinity of the enforcement locations. This enforcement avoidance behavior leads to a criticism of the effectiveness of ASES, in which the system promotes abrupt changes in vehicle speed near enforcement locations, increasing crash risk as a side effect. To address this issue, the section speed enforcement system (SSES), which enforces overspeeding vehicles by their average travel speed over a section, has been devised. In this study, we evaluate traffic speed and safety data that were collected from sections with SSES on Korean expressways. The speed analysis showed that the vehicles reduced their speeds inside the enforcement section, and this reduction in speed variations across vehicles was also noticeable, signifying that the risk of traffic crash should be lower. In view of this, we have performed before and after comparative analysis using the empirical Bayes method with the comparison group. The outcomes estimate 43% reduction in crash occurrence after installation of SSES. Furthermore, turning point analysis confirmed that the reduction in crash occurrence ensued immediately after installation of SSES.

scholarly journals Safety Impacts of Converting Two-Way Left-Turn Lanes to Raised Medians and Associated Design Concerns

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Priyanka Alluri ◽  
Albert Gan ◽  
Kirolos Haleem
Keyword(s):  
Data Availability ◽  
Left Turn ◽  
Arterial Streets ◽  
Crash Data ◽  
Potential Safety ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Show Evidence ◽  
Crash Types ◽  
Associated Design ◽  
Urban Arterial

Raised medians and two-way left-turn lanes (TWLTLs) are the two most common types of median treatments on arterial streets. This paper aims to conduct a detailed study on the safety impacts of conversion from TWLTLs to raised medians on state roads in Florida. In addition, the study also investigated several potential safety concerns related to raised medians on state roads, including crashes at median openings, vehicles directly hitting the median curb, and median crossover crashes. Based on data availability, 17.51 miles of urban arterial sections in Florida that were converted from TWLTLs to raised medians were analyzed. Police reports of all the crashes before and after median conversion were reviewed to correct miscoded crash types and obtain additional detailed crash information. Overall, a 28.5% reduction in total crash rate was observed after the 10 study locations were converted from TWLTLs to raised medians. The reductions in the proportions of left-turn and right-turn crashes were statistically significant, while the changes in the proportions of other crash types were not statistically significant. Furthermore, the crash data did not show evidence that raised medians are an additional hazard compared with TWLTLs.

Before-and-After Empirical Bayes Evaluation of Citywide Installation of Driver Feedback Signs

2020 ◽  
Vol 2674 (4) ◽  
pp. 419-427
Author(s):  
Mingjian Wu ◽  
Karim El-Basyouny ◽  
Tae J. Kwon
Keyword(s):  
Traffic Safety ◽  
Spatial Data ◽  
Empirical Bayes ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Low Cost ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Feedback Sign ◽  
Driver Feedback ◽  
Road Segments

Speeding is a leading factor that contributes to approximately one-third of all fatal collisions. Over the past decades, various passive/active countermeasures have been adopted to improve drivers’ compliance to posted speed limits to improve traffic safety. The driver feedback sign (DFS) is considered a low-cost innovative intervention that is being widely used, in growing numbers, in urban cities to provide positive guidance for motorists. Despite their documented effectiveness in reducing speeds, limited literature exists on their impact on reducing collisions. This study addresses this gap by designing a before-and-after study using the empirical Bayes method for a large sample of urban road segments. Safety performance functions and yearly calibration factors are developed to quantify the sole effectiveness of DFS using large-scale spatial data and a set of reference road segments within the city of Edmonton, Alberta, Canada. Likewise, the study followed a detailed economic analysis based on three collision-costing criteria to investigate if DFS was indeed a cost-effective intervention. The results showed significant collision reductions that ranged from 32.5% to 44.9%, with the highest reductions observed for severe speed-related collisions. The results further attested that the benefit–cost ratios, combining severe and property-damage-only collisions, ranged from 8.2 to 20.2 indicating that DFS can be an extremely economical countermeasure. The findings from this study can provide transportation agencies in need of implementing cost-efficient countermeasures with a tool they need to design a long-term strategic deployment plan to ensure the safety of traveling public.

Weighted Analysis of Paired Microarray Experiments

2005 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Erik Kristiansson ◽  
Anders Sjögren ◽  
Mats Rudemo ◽  
Olle Nerman
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Bayes ◽  
Mixed Type ◽  
Simulated Data ◽  
Analysis Method ◽  
Bayes Method ◽  
Microarray Experiments ◽  
The Third ◽  
Weighted Analysis ◽  
Empirical Bayes Method ◽  
Before And After

In microarray experiments quality often varies, for example between samples and between arrays. The need for quality control is therefore strong. A statistical model and a corresponding analysis method is suggested for experiments with pairing, including designs with individuals observed before and after treatment and many experiments with two-colour spotted arrays. The model is of mixed type with some parameters estimated by an empirical Bayes method. Differences in quality are modelled by individual variances and correlations between repetitions. The method is applied to three real and several simulated datasets. Two of the real datasets are of Affymetrix type with patients profiled before and after treatment, and the third dataset is of two-colour spotted cDNA type. In all cases, the patients or arrays had different estimated variances, leading to distinctly unequal weights in the analysis. We suggest also plots which illustrate the variances and correlations that affect the weights computed by our analysis method. For simulated data the improvement relative to previously published methods without weighting is shown to be substantial.

scholarly journals Safety Effectiveness of Intersection Left- and Right-Turn Lanes

2003 ◽  
Vol 1840 (1) ◽  
pp. 131-139 ◽  
Author(s):  
Douglas W. Harwood ◽  
Karin M. Bauer ◽  
Ingrid B. Potts ◽  
Darren J. Torbic ◽  
Karen R. Richard ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Traffic Control ◽  
Empirical Bayes ◽  
Matched Pair ◽  
Left Turn ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Accident Data ◽  
Left And Right ◽  
Safety Effectiveness ◽  
Evaluation Approaches ◽  
Control Traffic

The results of research involving a well-designed before-and-after evaluation of the safety effects of providing left- and right-turn lanes for at-grade intersections are presented. Geometric design, traffic control, traffic volume, and traffic accident data were gathered for a total of 280 improved intersections as well as 300 similar intersections that were not improved during the study period. The types of improvement projects evaluated included installation of added left-turn lanes, added right-turn lanes, and extension of the length of existing left- or right-turn lanes. An observational before-and-after evaluation of these projects was performed by using several alternative evaluation approaches. Three contrasting approaches to before-and-after evaluation were used: the yoked comparison or matched-pair approach, the comparison group approach, and the empirical Bayes approach. The research not only evaluated the safety effectiveness of left- and right-turn lane improvements but also compared the performances of these three alternative approaches in making such evaluations. The research developed quantitative safety effectiveness measures for installation design improvements involving added left-turn lanes and added right-turn lanes. The research concluded that the empirical Bayes method provides the most accurate and reliable results. Further use of this method is recommended.

Safety Performance of Flashing Yellow Arrow for Protected–Permissive Left-Turn Signal Control in Central Illinois

2017 ◽  
Vol 2636 (1) ◽  
pp. 32-42 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kerrie L. Schattler ◽  
Eric P. Anderson ◽  
Trevor Hanson
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Bayes ◽  
Safety Evaluation ◽  
Left Turn ◽  
Turn Signal ◽  
Crash Data ◽  
Flashing Yellow Arrow ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Control Research ◽  
Central Illinois ◽  
Yellow Arrow

In 2010, the Illinois Department of Transportation began implementing the flashing yellow arrow (FYA) at intersections operating with protected–permissive left-turn (PPLT) control. Research was conducted to evaluate the safety-effectiveness of FYAs at 86 intersections and 164 approaches in central Illinois. The effectiveness evaluation was performed with 3 years of before-and-after FYA installation crash data and the empirical Bayes method. In the before condition, the left-turn signals operated with a circular green display indicating the permissive interval of PPLT control using a five-section signal head. In the after condition, the FYA replaced the circular green display for the permissive interval of PPLT with a four-section signal head. Supplemental traffic signs were mounted on the mast arm adjacent to the left-turn signal at over half of the FYA installations. The results of the comprehensive safety evaluation of the FYA for PPLT control are presented. Analyses were also performed to assess the effects of the FYA supplemental signs and the effects of the FYA overall on two subsets of at-fault drivers: older drivers (age 65+) and younger drivers (age 16 to 21). The resulting mean crash modification factors for the targeted crash types ranged from 0.589 to 0.714. The findings of this research support the continued use of FYAs for PPLT control to improve safety at signalized intersections in central Illinois.

Development of Crash Reduction Factors: Methods, Problems, and Research Needs

2003 ◽  
Vol 1840 (1) ◽  
pp. 50-56 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joan Shen ◽  
Albert Gan
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Bayes ◽  
Group Method ◽  
Research Needs ◽  
Regression To The Mean ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Safety Studies ◽  
Development Methods ◽  
Crash Reduction ◽  
Before And After Study ◽  
Reduction Factors

Crash reduction factors (CRFs) are used in highway safety studies to predict safety benefits due to reduced numbers of crashes. NCHRP Report 162 identified the need for the development of a national comprehensive set of CRFs for each state to evaluate safety improvements. However, this need has not been met. As a result, many states have developed their own CRFs or have adopted CRFs from other states. A synthesis of the CRF development methods, the associated problems, and the research needs are provided. The emphasis is placed on the before-and-after study method because it has been, and still is, the method of choice for CRF development. Three before-and-after study methods were introduced and reviewed: ( a) the simple before-and-after method, ( b) the before-and-after study with comparison group method, and ( c) the before-and-after study with the empirical Bayes method. The problems associated with the simple before-and-after studies, including regression to the mean, crash migration, maturation, and external causal factor, are discussed. Several research needs related to crash migration and general CRF development are also identified. The information presented in the synthesis will be useful to states that plan to develop or update their CRFs.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document