scholarly journals INVESTMENT ACTIVITY OF THE PUBLIC INSTITUTIONS IN FOREIGN FINANCIAL MARKETS AS A NEW FACTOR IN THE TENGE EXCHANGE RATE

2020 ◽  
pp. 17-33
Author(s):  
V. Dodonov ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Foreign Exchange Market ◽  
Exchange Market ◽  
Investment Activity ◽  
State Institutions ◽  
The Public ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Face ◽  
External Conditions

The situation on the foreign exchange market of Kazakhstan over the past few years has been characterized by ambiguous trends and increased devaluation expectations. Problems in the field of exchange rate formation include the adequacy of the level of the tenge exchange rate, its weak predictability, as well as the loss of connection with objective factors that determined the course dynamics over a long period. The increase in uncertainty in the foreign exchange market of Kazakhstan coincided in time with the aggravation of problems in the field of public finance, in particular, with the period of progressive reduction in the volume of the National Fund, as well as the need to ensure the return on pension assets in the face of instability of the national currency. This coincidence suggests that it is the investment activity of the largest state institutions represented by the National Fund, the ENPF and the need to ensure their acceptable profitability in difficult external conditions that have become a new factor that has a serious impact on the currency market of Kazakhstan. This hypothesis is considered in the article, and for the purpose of its assessment, the relationship between the key parameters of the activity of these institutions, their profitability and the tenge exchange rate over the past few years is analyzed.

scholarly journals BITCOIN-USD TRADING USING SVM TO DETECT THE CURRENT DAY’S TREND IN THE MARKET

2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 70-77
Author(s):  
Ferdiansyah Ferdiansyah ◽  
Edi Surya Negara ◽  
Yeni Widyanti
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Foreign Exchange Market ◽  
Investment Decisions ◽  
Market Value ◽  
Develop Model ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Prediction Tool ◽  
Exchange Market ◽  
Support Vector Classifier

Cryptocurrency trade is now a popular type of investment. Cryptocurrency market has been treated similar to foreign exchange and stock market. The Characteristics of Bitcoin have made Bitcoin keep rising In the last few years. Bitcoin exchange rate to American Dollar (USD) is $3990 USD on November 2018, with daily pice fluctuations could reach 4.55%2. It is important to able to predict value to ensure profitable investment. However, because of its volatility, there’s a need for a prediction tool for investors to help them consider investment decisions for cryptocurrency trade. Nowadays, computing based tools are commonly used in stock and foreign exchange market predictions. There has been much research about SVM prediction on stocks and foreign exchange as case studies but none on cryptocurrency. Therefore, this research studied method to predict the market value of one of the most used cryptocurrency, Bitcoin. The preditct methods will be used on this research is regime prediction to develop model to predict the close value of Bitcoin and use Support vector classifier algorithm to predict the current day’s trend at the opening of the market

scholarly journals HEDGING CURRENCY RISKS IN INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS USING THE OPPORTUNITIES OF THE INTERNATIONAL FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olena Liegostaieva
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
International Business ◽  
Foreign Exchange Market ◽  
Foreign Currency ◽  
Exchange Market ◽  
Currency Risk ◽  
Exchange Rate Fluctuations ◽  
Current Value ◽  
Financial Result

The article is devoted to the study of currency risk hedging in international business. The article notes that the international foreign exchange market is the largest and fastest growing of all world markets. The characteristic features of the international currency market are substantiated and offered. It is also noted that foreign exchange transactions provide economic ties between participants located on different sides of state borders: settlements between firms from different countries for the supply of goods and services, foreign investment, international tourism and business travel. It is determined that hedging of currency risks is the protection of funds from the unfavorable movement of exchange rates, and is carried out in fixing the current value of funds by concluding an agreement on the foreign exchange market. When hedging, the risk of exchange rate changes disappears, and this makes it possible to forecast the company's activities and see the financial result, which is not distorted by exchange rate fluctuations, which will allow you to determine product prices, calculate profits, etc. The main difference between hedging and other types of transactions is that its purpose is not to generate additional profits, but to reduce the risk of potential losses, as risk reduction is almost always necessary to pay, hedging, of course, involves additional costs. Hedging is a way to improve business planning. An enterprise wishing to use this service shall pledge the specified amount, from which losses on its positions will be deducted. In today's conditions, thanks to the foreign exchange market, there is a very reliable way to hedge currency risk. This method is to fix the current value of funds by concluding agreements in this market. With hedging, the company eliminates the risk of exchange rate fluctuations, and this allows you to forecast activities and see the financial result, which is not changed by exchange rate fluctuations. Allows you to pre-determine product prices, determine profits, etc. Thus, the principle of hedging in international business is to open a currency position in a foreign currency account for future transactions to convert funds.

Optimistic and pessimistic economic sentiments and US Dollar exchange rate

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sonia Kumari ◽  
Suresh Kumar Oad Rajput ◽  
Rana Yassir Hussain ◽  
Jahanzeb Marwat ◽  
Haroon Hussain
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Foreign Exchange Market ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Exchange Market ◽  
Dollar Exchange Rate ◽  
The Us ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Us Dollar ◽  
The Exchange Rate

This study investigates the affiliation of various proxies of economic sentiments and the US Dollar exchange rate, mainly focusing on the real effective exchange rate of USD pairing with three other major currencies (USDEUR, USDGBP, and USDCAD). The study has employed Google Trends data of economy optimistic and pessimistic sentiments index and survey-based economy sentiments data on monthly basis from January 2004 to December 2018. The study engaged Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) estimation techniques to evaluate the short-run and long-run effects of economy-related sentiments and macroeconomic variables on the exchange rate. The results from the study found that Economy Optimistic Sentiments Index (EOSI) and Economy Pessimistic Sentiments Index (EPSI) appreciate and depreciate the US Dollar exchange rate in the short-run, respectively. Our sentiment measures are robust to survey-based Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (MSCI), Consumer Confidence Index (CCI), and various macroeconomic factors. The MSCI and CCI sentiments show a long-term impact on the foreign exchange market. This study implies that economic sentiments play a vital role in the foreign exchange market and it is essential to consider behavioral aspects when modeling the exchange rate movements.

scholarly journals 70 years of China's foreign exchange market development: history and experience

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 3-17
Author(s):  
Guogang Wang ◽  
Nan Lin
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Foreign Exchange Market ◽  
Exchange Market ◽  
Rate System ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Exchanges ◽  
History Of ◽  
Reform And Opening Up

PurposeThe development of China's foreign exchange market and the reform of Chinese yuan (hereinafter “CNY”) exchange rate are closely linked with each other. Their respective journey through the past 70 years can both be divided into three historical periods; as follows: China's foreign exchange market underwent a difficult exploration period, a formation and development period and an innovative development period; in the meanwhile, the formation mechanism of CNY exchange rate also witnessed three periods marked successively by a single exchange rate system with administrative pricing, an explorative formation mechanism of CNY exchange rate and a reformed, marketized CNY exchange rate mechanism.Design/methodology/approachIn the present world, the development of almost every country is closely linked to the international community, which is the result of the heterogeneity in system, market, humanity and history, in addition to the differences in natural resource endowments and the diversity in technology, administration, information, experience and diplomacy. International economic exchanges require foreign exchange, which gives rise to the existence and development of the foreign exchange market.FindingsThe 70-year history of China's foreign exchange market has proven the need to continue safeguarding national sovereignty and interests of the people, stick to the general direction of serving economic development, adhere to the strategy of steadily and orderly promoting the construction of the foreign exchange market, keep on making innovation in monetary policy operation and unbendingly stay away from any systemic financial risks.Originality/valueDuring the 70-year history of the new China, as an indispensable economic resource in China's economic development, the foreign exchange mechanism bolstered each stage of economic development and was always an important manifestation of China's economic sovereignty. It is argued that during the 30-year planned economy that preceded reform and opening-up, China pursued a closed-door policy with few international economic exchanges. The subtext of such argument is that China did not have (or hardly had much of) a foreign exchange mechanism during this period, which is clearly in conflict with historical evidence. In fact, although China did not have an open foreign exchange market before the reform and opening-up, it had a clear foreign exchange management system and exchange rate system.

scholarly journals Covered interest arbitrage opportunities in the South African foreign exchange market

1987 ◽  
Vol 18 (4) ◽  
pp. 209-214
Author(s):  
C. De J. Correia ◽  
R. F. Knight
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
South African ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Foreign Exchange Market ◽  
Exchange Market ◽  
The South ◽  
Dollar Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Parity ◽  
Interest Differential

The Interest Parity Theory states that in an efficient market, any interest differential between local and foreign sources of finance will be offset by the forward premium/discount. Therefore, opportunities to engage in profitable Covered Interest Arbitrage transactions will be eliminated quickly. The fall in the Rand/Dollar exchange rate resulted in many South African companies reporting substantial foreign exchange losses on offshore loans. Companies were attracted to foreign sources of finance because of lower foreign interest rates. The authors conclude, on the basis of empirical tests, that the forward Rand/Dollar exchange rate followed its interest parity value very closely over the period August 1983 - August 1985. Opportunities to engage in risk-free arbitrage activities were offset by related transaction costs. The South African foreign exchange market is efficient to the extent that risk-free profit opportunities did not exist for the period under review and therefore there was no benefit, after adjusting for risk, for South African management to borrow from offshore sources of finance.

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