Prediction of the Impact of Climate Change and Land Use Change on Flood Discharge in the Song Khwae District, Nan Province, Thailand

AbstractChanges in land use and climate are the main drivers of change in soil organic matter contents. We investigated the impact of the largest policy-induced land conversion to arable land, the Virgin Lands Campaign (VLC), from 1954 to 1963, of the massive cropland abandonment after 1990 and of climate change on soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks in steppes of Russia and Kazakhstan. We simulated carbon budgets from the pre-VLC period (1900) until 2100 using a dynamic vegetation model to assess the impacts of observed land-use change as well as future climate and land-use change scenarios. The simulations suggest for the entire VLC region (266 million hectares) that the historic cropland expansion resulted in emissions of 1.6⋅ 1015 g (= 1.6 Pg) carbon between 1950 and 1965 compared to 0.6 Pg in a scenario without the expansion. From 1990 to 2100, climate change alone is projected to cause emissions of about 1.8 (± 1.1) Pg carbon. Hypothetical recultivation of the cropland that has been abandoned after the fall of the Soviet Union until 2050 may cause emissions of 3.5 (± 0.9) Pg carbon until 2100, whereas the abandonment of all cropland until 2050 would lead to sequestration of 1.8 (± 1.2) Pg carbon. For the climate scenarios based on SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenarios) emission pathways, SOC declined only moderately for constant land use but substantially with further cropland expansion. The variation of SOC in response to the climate scenarios was smaller than that in response to the land-use scenarios. This suggests that the effects of land-use change on SOC dynamics may become as relevant as those of future climate change in the Eurasian steppes.

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Assessing the Impact of Floods Disaster on Soil Erosion Risk Based on the RUSLE-GloSEM Approach in Western Iran

10.21203/rs.3.rs-775510/v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Morteza Akbari ◽

Ehsan Neamatollahi ◽

Hadi Memarian ◽

Mohammad Alizadeh Noughani

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Use ◽

Soil Erosion ◽

Land Use Change ◽

Agricultural Development ◽

Erosion Risk ◽

Before And After ◽

Global Soil ◽

Major Floods ◽

The Impact

Abstract Floods cause great damage to ecosystems and are among the main agents of soil erosion. Given the importance of soils for the functioning of ecosystems and development and improvement of bio-economic conditions, the risk and rate of soil erosion was assessed using the RUSLE model in Iran’s Lorestan province before and after a period of major floods in late 2018 and early 2019. Furthermore, soil erosion was calculated for current and future conditions based on the Global Soil Erosion Modeling Database (GloSEM). The results showed that agricultural development and land use change are the main causes of land degradation in the southern and central parts of the study area. The impact of floods was also significant since our evaluations showed that soil erosion increased from 4.12 t ha-1 yr-1 before the floods to 10.93 t ha-1 yr-1 afterwards. Field surveying using 64 ground control points determined that erodibility varies from 0.17 to 0.49% in the study area. Orchards, farms, rangelands and forests with moderate or low vegetation cover were the most vulnerable land uses to soil erosion. The GloSEM modeling results revealed that climate change is the main cause of change in the rate of soil erosion. Combined land use change-climate change simulation showed that soil erosion will increase considerably in the future under SSP1-RCP2.6, SSP2-RCP4.5, and SSP5-RCP8.5 scenarios. In the study area, both natural factors, i.e. climate change and human factors such as agricultural development, population growth, and overgrazing are the main drivers of soil erosion.

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