Human-induced climate change: the impact of land-use change

AbstractChanges in land use and climate are the main drivers of change in soil organic matter contents. We investigated the impact of the largest policy-induced land conversion to arable land, the Virgin Lands Campaign (VLC), from 1954 to 1963, of the massive cropland abandonment after 1990 and of climate change on soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks in steppes of Russia and Kazakhstan. We simulated carbon budgets from the pre-VLC period (1900) until 2100 using a dynamic vegetation model to assess the impacts of observed land-use change as well as future climate and land-use change scenarios. The simulations suggest for the entire VLC region (266 million hectares) that the historic cropland expansion resulted in emissions of 1.6⋅ 1015 g (= 1.6 Pg) carbon between 1950 and 1965 compared to 0.6 Pg in a scenario without the expansion. From 1990 to 2100, climate change alone is projected to cause emissions of about 1.8 (± 1.1) Pg carbon. Hypothetical recultivation of the cropland that has been abandoned after the fall of the Soviet Union until 2050 may cause emissions of 3.5 (± 0.9) Pg carbon until 2100, whereas the abandonment of all cropland until 2050 would lead to sequestration of 1.8 (± 1.2) Pg carbon. For the climate scenarios based on SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenarios) emission pathways, SOC declined only moderately for constant land use but substantially with further cropland expansion. The variation of SOC in response to the climate scenarios was smaller than that in response to the land-use scenarios. This suggests that the effects of land-use change on SOC dynamics may become as relevant as those of future climate change in the Eurasian steppes.

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Assessing the Impact of Floods Disaster on Soil Erosion Risk Based on the RUSLE-GloSEM Approach in Western Iran

10.21203/rs.3.rs-775510/v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Morteza Akbari ◽

Ehsan Neamatollahi ◽

Hadi Memarian ◽

Mohammad Alizadeh Noughani

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Use ◽

Soil Erosion ◽

Land Use Change ◽

Agricultural Development ◽

Erosion Risk ◽

Before And After ◽

Global Soil ◽

Major Floods ◽

The Impact

Abstract Floods cause great damage to ecosystems and are among the main agents of soil erosion. Given the importance of soils for the functioning of ecosystems and development and improvement of bio-economic conditions, the risk and rate of soil erosion was assessed using the RUSLE model in Iran’s Lorestan province before and after a period of major floods in late 2018 and early 2019. Furthermore, soil erosion was calculated for current and future conditions based on the Global Soil Erosion Modeling Database (GloSEM). The results showed that agricultural development and land use change are the main causes of land degradation in the southern and central parts of the study area. The impact of floods was also significant since our evaluations showed that soil erosion increased from 4.12 t ha-1 yr-1 before the floods to 10.93 t ha-1 yr-1 afterwards. Field surveying using 64 ground control points determined that erodibility varies from 0.17 to 0.49% in the study area. Orchards, farms, rangelands and forests with moderate or low vegetation cover were the most vulnerable land uses to soil erosion. The GloSEM modeling results revealed that climate change is the main cause of change in the rate of soil erosion. Combined land use change-climate change simulation showed that soil erosion will increase considerably in the future under SSP1-RCP2.6, SSP2-RCP4.5, and SSP5-RCP8.5 scenarios. In the study area, both natural factors, i.e. climate change and human factors such as agricultural development, population growth, and overgrazing are the main drivers of soil erosion.

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Quantification of climate change and land cover/use transition impacts on runoff variations in the upper Hailar Basin, NE China

Hydrology Research ◽

10.2166/nh.2020.022 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 51 (5) ◽

pp. 976-993

Author(s):

Yuhui Yan ◽

Baolin Xue ◽

Yinglan A ◽

Wenchao Sun ◽

Hanwen Zhang

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Use ◽

Land Use Change ◽

Precipitation Change ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Reference Period ◽

Ne China ◽

Runoff Change ◽

Hailar Basin ◽

The Impact

Abstract Quantification of runoff change is vital for water resources management, especially in arid or semiarid areas. This study used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) distributed hydrological model to simulate runoff in the upper reaches of the Hailar Basin (NE China) and to analyze quantitatively the impacts of climate change and land-use change on runoff by setting different scenarios. Two periods, i.e., the reference period (before 1988) and the interference period (after 1988), were identified based on long-term runoff datasets. In comparison with the reference period, the contribution rates of both climate change and land-use change to runoff change in the Hailar Basin during the interference period were 83.58% and 16.42%, respectively. The simulation analysis of climate change scenarios with differential precipitation and temperature changes suggested that runoff changes are correlated positively with precipitation change and that the impact of precipitation change on runoff is stronger than that of temperature. Under different economic development scenarios adopted, land use was predicted to have a considerable impact on runoff. The expansion of forests within the basin might induce decreased runoff owing to enhanced evapotranspiration.

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Evaluation of the Impact of Land Use Change and Climate Change on Watershed Ecosystem Services in the Chenyulan Watershed

Geo-China 2016 ◽

10.1061/9780784480045.010 ◽

2016 ◽

Author(s):

Li-Chi Chiang ◽

Yi-Ting Chuang

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Use ◽

Ecosystem Services ◽

Land Use Change ◽

The Impact

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Forecasting land-use change and its impact on the groundwater system of the Kleine Nete catchment, Belgium

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions ◽

10.5194/hessd-4-4265-2007 ◽

2007 ◽

Vol 4 (6) ◽

pp. 4265-4295 ◽

Cited By ~ 10

Author(s):

J. Dams ◽

S. T. Woldeamlak ◽

O. Batelaan

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Use ◽

Land Use Change ◽

Water Balance ◽

Groundwater Level ◽

Balance Model ◽

Groundwater Model ◽

Water Balance Components ◽

Groundwater System ◽

The Impact

Abstract. Land-use change and climate change, along with groundwater pumping are frequently indicated to be the main human-induced factors influencing the groundwater system. Up till now, research has mainly been focusing on the effect of the water quality of these human-induced changes on the groundwater system, often neglecting changes in quantity. The focus in this study is on the impact of land-use changes in the near future, from 2000 until 2020, on the groundwater quantity and the general hydrologic balance of a sub-catchment of the Kleine Nete, Belgium. This study tests a new methodology which involves coupling a land-use change model with a water balance model and a groundwater model. The future land-use is modelled with the CLUE-S model. Four scenarios (A1, A2, B1 and B2) based on the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) are used for the land-use modelling. Water balance components, groundwater level and baseflow are simulated using the WetSpass model in conjunction with a MODFLOW groundwater model. Results show that the average recharge slowly decreases for all scenarios, the decreases are 2.9, 1.6, 1.8 and 0.8% for respectively scenario A1, A2, B1 and B2. The predicted reduction in recharge results in a small decrease of the average groundwater level, ranging from 2.5 cm for scenario A1 to 0.9 cm for scenario B2, and a reduction of the total baseflow with maximum 2.3% and minimum 0.7% respectively for scenario A1 and B2. Although these average values do not indicate significant changes for the groundwater system, spatial analysis of the changes shows the changes are concentrated in the neighbourhood of the major cities in the study areas. It is therefore important for spatial managers to take the groundwater system into account for reducing the negative impacts of land-use and climate change as much as possible.

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Modeling the Impact of Climate Change and Land Use Change Scenarios on Soil Erosion at the Minab Dam Watershed

Sustainability ◽

10.3390/su11123353 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 11 (12) ◽

pp. 3353 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

Mohammad Reza Azimi Sardari ◽

Ommolbanin Bazrafshan ◽

Thomas Panagopoulos ◽

Elham Rafiei Sardooi

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Use ◽

Soil Erosion ◽

Land Use Change ◽

Soil Loss ◽

Soil Cover ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Future Period ◽

The Future ◽

The Impact

Climate and land use change can influence susceptibility to erosion and consequently land degradation. The aim of this study was to investigate in the baseline and a future period, the land use and climate change effects on soil erosion at an important dam watershed occupying a strategic position on the narrow Strait of Hormuz. The future climate change at the study area was inferred using statistical downscaling and validated by the Canadian earth system model (CanESM2). The future land use change was also simulated using the Markov chain and artificial neural network, and the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation was adopted to estimate soil loss under climate and land use change scenarios. Results show that rainfall erosivity (R factor) will increase under all Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. The highest amount of R was 40.6 MJ mm ha−1 h−1y−1 in 2030 under RPC 2.6. Future land use/land cover showed rangelands turning into agricultural lands, vegetation cover degradation and an increased soil cover among others. The change of C and R factors represented most of the increase of soil erosion and sediment production in the study area during the future period. The highest erosion during the future period was predicted to reach 14.5 t ha−1 y−1, which will generate 5.52 t ha−1 y−1 sediment. The difference between estimated and observed sediment was 1.42 t ha−1 year−1 at the baseline period. Among the soil erosion factors, soil cover (C factor) is the one that watershed managers could influence most in order to reduce soil loss and alleviate the negative effects of climate change.

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Comprehensive Assessment of the Effect of Urban Built-Up Land Expansion and Climate Change on Net Primary Productivity

Complexity ◽

10.1155/2020/8489025 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 2020 ◽

pp. 1-12 ◽

Cited By ~ 5

Author(s):

Pengyan Zhang ◽

Yanyan Li ◽

Wenlong Jing ◽

Dan Yang ◽

Yu Zhang ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Use ◽

Land Use Change ◽

Primary Productivity ◽

Net Primary Productivity ◽

Urban Expansion ◽

Ecosystem Functions ◽

Rapid Urbanization ◽

Important Indicator ◽

The Impact

Urbanization is causing profound changes in ecosystem functions at local and regional scales. The net primary productivity (NPP) is an important indicator of global change, rapid urbanization and climate change will have a significant impact on NPP, and urban expansion and climate change in different regions have different impacts on NPP, especially in densely populated areas. However, to date, efforts to quantify urban expansion and climate change have been limited, and the impact of long-term continuous changes in NPP has not been well understood. Based on land use data, night light data, NPP data, climate data, and a series of social and economic data, we performed a comprehensive analysis of land use change in terms of type and intensity and explored the pattern of urban expansion and its relationship with NPP and climate change for the period of 2000–2015, taking Zhengzhou, China, as an example. The results show that the major form of land use change was cropland to built-up land during the 2000–2015 period, with a total area of 367.51 km2 converted. The NPP exhibited a generally increasing trend in the study area except for built-up land and water area. The average correlation coefficients between temperature and NPP and precipitation and NPP were 0.267 and 0.020, respectively, indicating that an increase in temperature and precipitation can promote NPP despite significant spatial differences. During the examined period, most expansion areas exhibited an increasing NPP trend, indicating that the influence of urban expansion on NPP is mainly characterized by an evident influence of the expansion area. The study can provide a reference for Zhengzhou and even the world's practical research to improve land use efficiency, increase agricultural productivity and natural carbon sinks, and maintain low-carbon development.

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Impact of changes in land use and climate on the Runoff in the coastal areas of South China—A case study of the Nanliujiang catchment

MATEC Web of Conferences ◽

10.1051/matecconf/201824602001 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 246 ◽

pp. 02001

Author(s):

Mingzhi Yang ◽

Weihua Xiao ◽

Yong Zhao ◽

Ya Huang ◽

Baoqi Li ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Use ◽

Land Use Change ◽

South China ◽

Coastal Area ◽

Swat Model ◽

Efficiency Coefficient ◽

Annual Average ◽

Runoff Depth ◽

The Impact

The intense climate changes and human activities have a great impact on the variation of the runoff of the coastal area of South China. In this work, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is used to quantify the impact of land use and climate change of the Nanliujiang catchment on the runoff by setting 4 scenarios of land-use and climate change. The results show the runoff of the simulated and measured values had a similar trend. The value of relevant coefficient is above 0.8, and the value of Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient is about 0.8, which indicate that the SWAT model is fit for the study area. The annual average runoff depth during the period from 1995 to 2013 has increased by 53.5mm, of which the land use change resulted in 13.0mm increase on the annual average runoff depth while the climate change resulted in 40.9mm increase on the annual average runoff depth, therefore, the climate change has greater effect then the land use change. This work will delineate some helpful information for the water resources management as well as ecological protection in the coastal area of South China.

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Relative Importance of Land Use and Climate Change on Hydrology in Agricultural Watershed of Southern China

Sustainability ◽

10.3390/su12166423 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 12 (16) ◽

pp. 6423

Author(s):

Lanhua Luo ◽

Qing Zhou ◽

Hong S. He ◽

Liangxia Duan ◽

Gaoling Zhang ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Use ◽

Land Use Change ◽

River Basin ◽

Laboratory Experiments ◽

Southern China ◽

Swat Model ◽

Efficiency Coefficient ◽

Soil Database ◽

The Impact

Quantitative assessment of the impact of land use and climate change on hydrological processes is of great importance to water resources planning and management. The main objective of this study was to quantitatively assess the response of runoff to land use and climate change in the Zhengshui River Basin of Southern China, a heavily used agricultural basin. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to simulate the river runoff for the Zhengshui River Basin. Specifically, a soil database was constructed based on field work and laboratory experiments as input data for the SWAT model. Following SWAT calibration, simulated results were compared with observed runoff data for the period 2006 to 2013. The Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency Coefficient (NSE) and the correlation coefficient (R2) for the comparisons were greater than 0.80, indicating close agreement. The calibrated models were applied to simulate monthly runoff in 1990 and 2010 for four scenarios with different land use and climate conditions. Climate change played a dominant role affecting runoff of this basin, with climate change decreasing simulated runoff by −100.22% in 2010 compared to that of 1990, land use change increasing runoff in this basin by 0.20% and the combination of climate change and land use change decreasing runoff by 60.8m3/s. The decrease of forestland area and the corresponding increase of developed land and cultivated land area led to the small increase in runoff associated with land use change. The influence of precipitation on runoff was greater than temperature. The soil database used to model runoff with the SWAT model for the basin was constructed using a combination of field investigation and laboratory experiments, and simulations of runoff based on that new soil database more closely matched observations of runoff than simulations based on the generic Harmonized World Soil Database (HWSD). This study may provide an important reference to guide management decisions for this and similar watersheds.

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Impact of Urbanization and Land-Use Change on Surface Climate in Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River, 1988–2008

Advances in Meteorology ◽

10.1155/2015/395094 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 2015 ◽

pp. 1-10 ◽

Cited By ~ 19

Author(s):

Xiaowei Yao ◽

Zhanqi Wang ◽

Hua Wang

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Use ◽

Land Use Change ◽

Yangtze River ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Global Environmental Change ◽

The Yangtze River ◽

Temperature And Precipitation ◽

Regional Temperature ◽

The Impact

Land-use/land cover change (LUCC) is one of the fundamental causes of global environmental change. In recent years, understanding the regional climate impact of LUCC has become a hot-discussed topic worldwide. Some studies have explored LUCC impact on regional climate in specific cities, provinces, or farming areas. However, the quick-urbanized areas, which are highly influenced by human activities, have the most severe land-use changes in developing countries, and their climatic impact cannot be ignored. This study aims to identify the impact of land-use change coupled with urbanization on regional temperature and precipitation in the metropolitan areas of middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River in China by means of spatial analysis and numeric methods. Based on the exploration of land-use change and climate change during 1988–2008, the impact of land-use transition from non-built-up area to built-up area on temperature and precipitation was analyzed. The results indicated that the land-use conversion has affected the regional temperature with an increasing effect in the study area, while the influence on precipitation was not so significant. The results can provide useful information for spatial planning policies in consideration of regional climate change.

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