scholarly journals THE EFFECT OF CRUDE OIL PRICES ON INFLATION, INTEREST RATES AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN INDONESIA

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (5) ◽  
pp. 14-19
Author(s):  
Rostin Rostin ◽  
Abd Azis Muthalib ◽  
Pasrun Adam ◽  
Muh. Nur ◽  
Zainudin Saenong ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Crude Oil Prices

scholarly journals THE EFFECT OF TRANSFERING ISRAEL CAPITAL CITY TO JERUSALEM TOWARD INDONESIA MACRO ECONOMY

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 260-282
Author(s):  
Liliek Nur Sulistiyowati
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
State Budget ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators ◽  
The Impact

United States President Donald Trump has just issued a controversial policy by giving Jerusalem recognition as the capital of Israel. This controversial policy triggered a strong reaction from a number of countries, especially Islamic countries including Indonesia. Indonesia through President Jokowidodo strongly condemned the policy of moving the Israeli capital to Jerusalem because it would disrupt political and security stability in the Middle East region. In the midst of the political impact caused by President Donald Trump's policies also affected the global economy. The world stock exchanges reacted immediately with the existence of these policies, one of which was the fall of the stock market index in Japan and South Korea due to investor concerns. The impact of the policies implemented by President Donald Trump also affected the Indonesian economy. This policy will affect the financial markets and capital markets in Indonesia. Trump's policy triggered an increase in the US $ exchange rate against the currencies of other countries including the Indonesian currency. Some of the negative effects on the Indonesian economy were the increase in world crude oil prices. Indonesia is currently no longer an oil exporting country, so that with the increase in world crude oil prices it will provide a fiscal burden in the State Budget (APBN). Fuel subsidies in the state budget will increase along with the increase in world crude oil prices that occur. In addition to the impact on the rupiah exchange rate against the US $, Donald Trump's policy also affects the inflation rate and the SBI interest rate. Through 2018, Bank Indonesia has raised the SBI interest rate by 150 basis points (bps) or 1.5%. The BI Governor explained that one reason for changing the benchmark interest rate was US monetary policy. The determination of high SBI interest rates also had an effect on reducing inflationary pressures. This study aims to look at the influence of President Donald Trump's policies regarding the transfer of the Israeli capital to Jerusalem against Indonesia's macroeconomic indicators. Indonesia's macroeconomic indicators are seen from 3 variables, such as the inflation rate, SBI interest rates and the rupiah exchange rate against US $ Key words :  Donald Trump, inflation, SBI interest rates, exchange rates / exchange rates  

scholarly journals Impact of FDI inflow, crude oil prices, and economic growth on CO2 emission in Tunisia: Symmetric and asymmetric analysis through ARDL and NARDL approach

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-13
Author(s):  
Tarek Ghazouani
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Carbon Emissions ◽  
Co2 Emission ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
Fdi Inflows ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
Long Run

This study explores the symmetric and asymmetric impact of real GDP per capita, FDI inflow, and crude oil price on CO2 emission in Tunisia for the 1972–2016 period. Using the cointegration tests, namely ARDL and NARDL bound test, the results show that the variables are associated in a long run relationship. Long run estimates from both approach confirms the validity of ECK hypothesis for Tunisia. Symmetric analysis reveals that economic growth and the price of crude oil adversely affect the environment, in contrast to FDI inflows that reduce CO2 emissions in the long run. Whereas the asymmetric analysis show that increase in crude oil price harm the environment and decrease in crude oil price have positive repercussions on the environment. The causality analysis suggests that a bilateral link exists between economic growth and carbon emissions and a one-way causality ranges from FDI inflows and crude oil prices to carbon emissions. Thus, some policy recommendations have been formulated to help Tunisia reduce carbon emissions and support economic development.

scholarly journals An ARDL Approach on Crude Oil Price and Macroeconomic Variables

2019 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 68-73
Author(s):  
Seuk Yen Phoong ◽  
Seuk Wai Phoong
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Positive Relationship ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
Ardl Approach

Objective - The removal of fuel subsidies by the Malaysian government in 2014 has been implement with the managed float system for fuel prices. Methodology/Technique - This study investigates the impact of the managed floating system of crude oil prices on the Malaysian economy using ARDL approach by looking at macroeconomic variables such as inflation, economic growth and unemployment rates. Findings - The results show that all of the variables have short lived relationship with oil prices whereby inflation and economic growth are positively related to oil prices. However, unemployment rate has a negative relationship with the changes of WTI crude oil prices. Novelty - The major input in the economy of Malaysia contributes to a positive relationship between inflation and oil prices, whilst the contribution of Malaysia being an oil-producing country results in the positive relationship of economic growth and oil price. Likewise, as oil prices are high, the increase in demand results in increase in job opportunities. Lastly, the correlation test shows that inflation and economic growth have a high positive correlation while unemployment rate has a low negative correlation with oil price. Type of Paper: Empirical. Keywords: ARDL; Crude Oil Price; GDP; Inflation; Unemployment. JEL Classification: E10, E30, E39. DOI: https://doi.org/10.35609/jber.2019.4.1(8)

scholarly journals CRUDE OIL PRICES, HOUSEHOLD SPENDING AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN THE ASEAN-4 REGION: AN ANALYSIS OF NONLINEAR PANEL AUTOREGRESSIVE DISTRIBUTED LAG

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 437-442
Author(s):  
Wali Aya Rumbia ◽  
Abd Azis Muthalib ◽  
Bakhtiar Abbas ◽  
Pasrun Adam ◽  
Heppi Millia ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Household Spending ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Crude Oil Prices

scholarly journals EFFECTS OF CRUDE OIL PRICES VOLATILITY, THE INTERNET AND INFLATION ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN ASEAN-5 COUNTRIES: A PANEL AUTOREGRESSIVE DISTRIBUTED LAG APPROACH

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 15-21
Author(s):  
Rosnawintang Rosnawintang ◽  
Tajuddin Tajuddin ◽  
Pasrun Adam ◽  
Yuwanda Purnamasari Pasrun ◽  
La Ode Saidi
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
The Internet ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Crude Oil Prices

Effect of Crude Oil Prices on Economic Growth in Kenya in the Period 1981 To 2018

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (10) ◽  
pp. 340-349
Author(s):  
PEREZ ONONO ◽  
Benedict Mutuma Kiambi ◽  
James Maingi
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Bank Lending ◽  
Petroleum Products ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
The Government ◽  
Essential Resource

Crude oil is an essential resource in the day-to-day activities of a functional economy. Crude oil and petroleum products constituted 14 percent of the Kenya’s imports in 2017 up from 12 percent in 2015. As Kenya moves into an oil-exporting country, there is a need to measure the role crude oil prices play in directing the economic growth of the country. This study assessed the effect of crude oil prices on the economic growth of Kenya. Gross capital formation, bank lending rate, employment rate and debt servicing were used as control variables in the models estimated. The study employed secondary data for the period 1981 to 2018. The findings indicate that crude oil prices had a positive but insignificant effect on economic growth. The study recommends that the government diversifies its sources of energy to ensure that economic activity economy is not deeply connected to crude oil prices because of their volatility.

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