scholarly journals CRUDE OIL PRICES, HOUSEHOLD SPENDING AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN THE ASEAN-4 REGION: AN ANALYSIS OF NONLINEAR PANEL AUTOREGRESSIVE DISTRIBUTED LAG

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 437-442
Author(s):  
Wali Aya Rumbia ◽  
Abd Azis Muthalib ◽  
Bakhtiar Abbas ◽  
Pasrun Adam ◽  
Heppi Millia ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Household Spending ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Crude Oil Prices

scholarly journals EFFECTS OF CRUDE OIL PRICES VOLATILITY, THE INTERNET AND INFLATION ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN ASEAN-5 COUNTRIES: A PANEL AUTOREGRESSIVE DISTRIBUTED LAG APPROACH

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 15-21
Author(s):  
Rosnawintang Rosnawintang ◽  
Tajuddin Tajuddin ◽  
Pasrun Adam ◽  
Yuwanda Purnamasari Pasrun ◽  
La Ode Saidi
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
The Internet ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Crude Oil Prices

Factors Determining Gold Prices in Malaysia

2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 75-82
Author(s):  
Anis Mat Dalam ◽  
Noorhaslinda Kulub Abd Rashid ◽  
Jaharudin Padli
Keyword(s):  
Crude Oil ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
Inflation Rates ◽  
Ardl Approach ◽  
Gold Reserve

Gold is a valuable asset to a country because of its liquidity. Gold reserve can stabilize the currency in a country. The objective of this paper is to identify the factors contributing to the volatility of gold prices, such as Real Malaysia GDP, inflation rates, crude oil prices and exchange rates. The data was analysed using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach with time series data, with 30-year coverage from 1987 to 2016. Findings showed that only Real Malaysia GDP and crude oil prices were significantly related to gold prices. As a conclusion, this study can be used as reference by other investors. The author suggests to other researchers to further improve upon this study by adding more variables or diversifying the variables that relate to volatility of gold prices.

scholarly journals ASYMMETRIC EFFECT OF CRUDE OIL AND PALM OIL PRICES ON ECONOMIC GROWTH: EVIDENCE FROM INDONESIA

2020 ◽  
Vol 23 (2) ◽  
pp. 253-268
Author(s):  
KP Prabheesh ◽  
Nisful Laila
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Palm Oil ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Asymmetric Effect ◽  
Linear Effect ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Non Linear ◽  
The Impact

This paper empirically examines the impact of the price of crude oil petrol and palm oil on Indonesia's economic growth. Using quarterly data from 2000 to 2019 and linear, and non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model to cointegration, the study finds 1) A significant non-linear effect of oil prices on country's output. 2) The palm oil price changes have a higher effect on the country's output as compared to petroleum prices. 3) A decline in palm price in the international market leads to a higher adverse effect on the country's economic growth as compared to petroleum prices.

ANALYZING THE ASYMMETRIC EFFECTS OF CRUDE OIL PRICE CHANGES ON CHINA’S PETROLEUM PRODUCT PRICES

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-20
Author(s):  
XIANCHUN LIAO ◽  
JUNGHO BAEK
Keyword(s):  
Crude Oil ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Price Transmission ◽  
Gasoline Prices ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Nonlinear Ardl ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Pass Through ◽  
Asymmetric Cointegration

As the world’s second-largest crude oil consumer, China depends on imports for approximately 60% and domestic production for approximately 40%, of its oil demand. Therefore, it is very interesting to assess the pass-through effects of both domestic and international crude oil prices to gasoline and diesel prices. After the short- and long-run investigations using the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) methodology of Shin et al. [Shin, Y, BC Yu and M Greenwood-Nimmo (2014). Modelling asymmetric cointegration and dynamic multipliers in a nonlinear ARDL framework” Festschrift in Honor of Peter Schmidt: Econometric Methods and Applications, R Sickels and W Horrace (eds.), pp. 281–314. Springer.], we find overwhelming evidence supporting the asymmetric price transmission mechanism between crude oil prices and gasoline prices in both the short- and long-run. In the case of diesel prices, on the other hand, the asymmetry effects seem likely to be a long-run phenomenon.

scholarly journals THE EFFECT OF CRUDE OIL PRICES ON INFLATION, INTEREST RATES AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN INDONESIA

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (5) ◽  
pp. 14-19
Author(s):  
Rostin Rostin ◽  
Abd Azis Muthalib ◽  
Pasrun Adam ◽  
Muh. Nur ◽  
Zainudin Saenong ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Crude Oil Prices

scholarly journals Impact of FDI inflow, crude oil prices, and economic growth on CO2 emission in Tunisia: Symmetric and asymmetric analysis through ARDL and NARDL approach

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-13
Author(s):  
Tarek Ghazouani
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Carbon Emissions ◽  
Co2 Emission ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
Fdi Inflows ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
Long Run

This study explores the symmetric and asymmetric impact of real GDP per capita, FDI inflow, and crude oil price on CO2 emission in Tunisia for the 1972–2016 period. Using the cointegration tests, namely ARDL and NARDL bound test, the results show that the variables are associated in a long run relationship. Long run estimates from both approach confirms the validity of ECK hypothesis for Tunisia. Symmetric analysis reveals that economic growth and the price of crude oil adversely affect the environment, in contrast to FDI inflows that reduce CO2 emissions in the long run. Whereas the asymmetric analysis show that increase in crude oil price harm the environment and decrease in crude oil price have positive repercussions on the environment. The causality analysis suggests that a bilateral link exists between economic growth and carbon emissions and a one-way causality ranges from FDI inflows and crude oil prices to carbon emissions. Thus, some policy recommendations have been formulated to help Tunisia reduce carbon emissions and support economic development.

scholarly journals Changes in Crude Oil Prices and the Flow of Government Revenue

2019 ◽  
pp. 1-12
Author(s):  
Chukwunweike Stella ◽  
Achu Tonia Chinedu ◽  
Awa Kalu Idika
Keyword(s):  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Government Revenue ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Oil Revenue ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
Regression Techniques ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

This work is set out as an investigation into the impact of change in oil prices on government revenue broken into oil and nonoil component. Drawing data from the Central Bank Statistical Bulletin and covering the period 1981 to 2018. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Model was used because of its advantages over other regression techniques. It was found that changes in oil price affected oil revenue within the studied period leaving no significant impact on nonoil revenue. The result obviously reflects the Nigerian economy and its mono-product characteristic. It is therefore recommended that a conscious policy effort should be made to diversify the economy in a manner that makes revenue to the government multifarious functions.

scholarly journals COVID-19 Deaths Cases Impact on Oil Prices: Probable Scenarios on Saudi Arabia Economy

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abdelmageed Algamdi ◽  
Said Khalfa Mokhtar Brika ◽  
Adam Musa ◽  
Khalil Chergui
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
The United States ◽  
Real Economy ◽  
Sharp Drop ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
The Usa

The purpose of this paper is to discuss death cases on the World, exacerbated investor fears, uncertainties, and increased volatility of crude oil prices in financial markets. The reaction absorbed the epidemic gradually until January 22. Still, the market situation changed soon with a sharp drop in prices, and prices slowly recovered after that until June 14. The data of this research using an econometric model, the ARDL (Autoregressive Distributed Lag), according to the Gets methodology, using daily data, January 22 –June 14, 2020. Our ARDL shows, the death ratio has a significant negative effect on oil price dynamics. However, the death ratio has an indirect impact on volatility in Crude Oil prices. The findings show that the death toll of COVID-19 has a significant impact on oil prices in Saudi Arabia (KSA). However, the preliminary results mainly influence by the situation reported in the USA. When we assess the case outside the USA, and we see the positive effect of the COVID-19 death figures on oil prices, therefore, stress the amplification of death-related risks to the financial market and the real economy, caused by increased, policy-induced economic uncertainty in the United States.

scholarly journals An ARDL Approach on Crude Oil Price and Macroeconomic Variables

2019 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 68-73
Author(s):  
Seuk Yen Phoong ◽  
Seuk Wai Phoong
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Positive Relationship ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
Ardl Approach

Objective - The removal of fuel subsidies by the Malaysian government in 2014 has been implement with the managed float system for fuel prices. Methodology/Technique - This study investigates the impact of the managed floating system of crude oil prices on the Malaysian economy using ARDL approach by looking at macroeconomic variables such as inflation, economic growth and unemployment rates. Findings - The results show that all of the variables have short lived relationship with oil prices whereby inflation and economic growth are positively related to oil prices. However, unemployment rate has a negative relationship with the changes of WTI crude oil prices. Novelty - The major input in the economy of Malaysia contributes to a positive relationship between inflation and oil prices, whilst the contribution of Malaysia being an oil-producing country results in the positive relationship of economic growth and oil price. Likewise, as oil prices are high, the increase in demand results in increase in job opportunities. Lastly, the correlation test shows that inflation and economic growth have a high positive correlation while unemployment rate has a low negative correlation with oil price. Type of Paper: Empirical. Keywords: ARDL; Crude Oil Price; GDP; Inflation; Unemployment. JEL Classification: E10, E30, E39. DOI: https://doi.org/10.35609/jber.2019.4.1(8)

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