scholarly journals Simulating Probabilistic Long-Term Effects in Models with Temporal Dependence

The R Journal ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 401 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher Gandrud ◽  
Laron,K. Williams
Keyword(s):  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Temporal Dependence

Long-Term Effects in Models with Temporal Dependence

2016 ◽  
Vol 24 (2) ◽  
pp. 243-262 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laron K. Williams
Keyword(s):  
Conflict Behavior ◽  
Binary Outcomes ◽  
International Studies ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Temporal Dependence ◽  
Parliamentary Democracies ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Repeated Events

A dominant trend in models with binary outcomes is to control for unmodeled duration dependence by including temporal dependence variables. A second, distinct trend is to interpret both the short- and long-term effects of explanatory variables in autoregressive models. While the first trend is nearly ubiquitous in models with binary outcomes, the second trend has yet to be applied consistently beyond models with continuous outcomes. While scholars use temporal splines and cubic polynomials to model the underlying hazard rate, they have neglected the fact that this causes the explanatory variables to have a long-term effect (LTE) by modifying the future values of the temporal dependence variables. In this article, I propose a simple technique that estimates a wide range of probabilistic LTEs in models with temporal dependence variables. These effects can range from simple LTEs for a one-time change in an explanatory variable to more complex scenarios where effects change in magnitude with time and compound across repeated events. I then replicate Clare's (2010, Ideological fractionalization and the international conflict behavior of parliamentary democracies.International Studies Quarterly54:965–87) examination of the influence of government fractionalization on conflict behavior to show that failing to interpret the results within the context of temporal dependence underestimates the total impact of fractionalization by neglecting LTEs.

Ovarian Dysfunction in Fetally Irradiated Beagles

1977 ◽  
Vol 35 ◽  
pp. 658-659
Author(s):  
T. M. Seed ◽  
M. H. Sanderson ◽  
D. L. Gutzeit ◽  
T. E. Fritz ◽  
D. V. Tolle ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Gamma Rays ◽  
Low Dose ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Ovarian Dysfunction ◽  
Dose Rates ◽  
Highly Sensitive ◽  
Microscopic Evaluation ◽  
Ovarian Pathology ◽  
Normal Offspring

The developing mammalian fetus is thought to be highly sensitive to ionizing radiation. However, dose, dose-rate relationships are not well established, especially the long term effects of protracted, low-dose exposure. A previous report (1) has indicated that bred beagle bitches exposed to daily doses of 5 to 35 R 60Co gamma rays throughout gestation can produce viable, seemingly normal offspring. Puppies irradiated in utero are distinguishable from controls only by their smaller size, dental abnormalities, and, in adulthood, by their inability to bear young.We report here our preliminary microscopic evaluation of ovarian pathology in young pups continuously irradiated throughout gestation at daily (22 h/day) dose rates of either 0.4, 1.0, 2.5, or 5.0 R/day of gamma rays from an attenuated 60Co source. Pups from non-irradiated bitches served as controls. Experimental animals were evaluated clinically and hematologically (control + 5.0 R/day pups) at regular intervals.

Ultrastructural investigations of MDL 19,660-induced effects on the canine platelet and megakaryocyte

1990 ◽  
Vol 48 (3) ◽  
pp. 374-375
Author(s):  
D.E. Loudy ◽  
J. Sprinkle-Cavallo ◽  
J.T. Yarrington ◽  
F.Y. Thompson ◽  
J.P. Gibson
Keyword(s):  
Antidepressant Drug ◽  
Beagle Dogs ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Platelet Counts ◽  
Toxicological Studies ◽  
Induced Aggregation ◽  
Internal Architecture

Previous short term toxicological studies of one to two weeks duration have demonstrated that MDL 19,660 (5-(4-chlorophenyl)-2,4-dihydro-2,4-dimethyl-3Hl, 2,4-triazole-3-thione), an antidepressant drug, causes a dose-related thrombocytopenia in dogs. Platelet counts started to decline after two days of dosing with 30 mg/kg/day and continued to decrease to their lowest levels by 5-7 days. The loss in platelets was primarily of the small discoid subpopulation. In vitro studies have also indicated that MDL 19,660: does not spontaneously aggregate canine platelets and has moderate antiaggregating properties by inhibiting ADP-induced aggregation. The objectives of the present investigation of MDL 19,660 were to evaluate ultrastructurally long term effects on platelet internal architecture and changes in subpopulations of platelets and megakaryocytes.Nine male and nine female beagle dogs were divided equally into three groups and were administered orally 0, 15, or 30 mg/kg/day of MDL 19,660 for three months. Compared to a control platelet range of 353,000- 452,000/μl, a doserelated thrombocytopenia reached a maximum severity of an average of 135,000/μl for the 15 mg/kg/day dogs after two weeks and 81,000/μl for the 30 mg/kg/day dogs after one week.

Long-Term Effects of Head Lice Tx Unknown

2012 ◽  
Vol 43 (3) ◽  
pp. 42
Author(s):  
MITCHEL L. ZOLER
Keyword(s):  
Head Lice ◽  
Long Term Effects

The response of skin perfusion and of rheological and immunological variables to intravenous prostanoid administration in Raynaud’s phenomenon secondary to collagenosis

VASA ◽  
2005 ◽  
Vol 34 (4) ◽  
pp. 243-249 ◽  
Author(s):  
Drinda ◽  
Neumann ◽  
Pöhlmann ◽  
Vogelsang ◽  
Stein ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Laser Doppler Flowmetry ◽  
Raynaud’S Phenomenon ◽  
Raynaud's Phenomenon ◽  
Plasma Viscosity ◽  
Laser Doppler ◽  
Erythrocyte Aggregation ◽  
Control Group ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Doppler Flowmetry

Background: Prostanoids are used in the treatment of Raynaud’s phenomenon and acral perfusion disorders secondary to collagenosis. In subjective terms, intravenous administration of these agents produces success in more than 50% of patients. The therapeutic outcome of clinical administration of alprostadil or iloprost may vary from individual to individual. Patients and methods: The following variables were analysed in a cross-over study in 27 patients with collagenosis and Raynaud’s phenomenon: plasma viscosity and erythrocyte aggregation (rheological variables), partial pressure of oxygen and laser Doppler flowmetry in the finger region, and lymphocyte phenotyping and interleukin (IL) determinations (immunological variables). Results: Laser Doppler flowmetry revealed significant differences between patients with secondary Raynaud’s phenomenon and a control group of 25 healthy subjects. Laser Doppler readings did not change significantly as a result of the treatments. Therapy with iloprost produced a reduction in IL-1beta, L-selectin (CD 62 L) and IL-6. Conclusion: The change in immunological variables due to iloprost may explain the long-term effects of prostaglandins in the treatment of Raynaud’s phenomenon. From our results it is not possible to infer any preference for iloprost or alprostadil.

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