Are Industrial Structure Adjustment and Technical Progress Conducive to Environmental Improvement?

China actively broadens its channels for environmental protection and limits pollutant emissions through industrial structure adjustment and technical progress. Based on panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2003 to 2017, this study investigated the effects of industrial structure adjustment and technical progress on environmental pollution using spatial Dubin models. The findings show the following. (1) As the economy develops, the situation of environmental pollution in various regions deteriorates; moreover, spatio-temporal dependence is an aspect of environmental pollution. (2) Industrial structure adjustment and technical progress are beneficial to environmental improvement. Furthermore, there are spillover effects in factors such as industrial structure and technical progress to varying degrees. Thus, this study suggests that the path of coupling between industrial structure and technical progress should be explored to establish a pollution filtering mechanism, thereby improving environmental quality.

Trends and Seasonality of Information Searches Carried out through Google on Nutrition and Healthy Diet in Relation to Occupational Health: Infodemiological Study

This study aimed to analyze and relate the population interest through information search trends on Nutrition and Healthy Diet (HD) with the Occupational Health (OH). Ecological and correlational study of the Relative Search Volume (RSV) obtained from Google Trends query, segmented in two searched periods concerning antiquity; date of query: 20 April 2021. The RSV trends for the analyzed three Topics were: Nutrition (R2 = 0.02), HD (R2 = 0.07) and OH (R2 = −0.72). There was a good positive correlation between Nutrition and OH (R = 0.56, p < 0.001) and a moderate one between HD and OH (R = 0.32, p < 0.001). According to seasons, differences were verified between RSV means in the Topics HD (p < 0.01) and OH (p < 0.001). Temporal dependence was demonstrated on Nutrition searches (Augmented Dickey–Fuller = −2.35, p > 0.05). There was only a significant relationship between the RSV Topic HD (p < 0.05) for the Developing and Least Developed countries. The data on the analyzed RSV demonstrated diminishing interest in the search information on HD and OH as well as a clearly positive trend change in recent years for Nutrition. A good positive correlation was observed between the RSV of nutrition and OH whereas the correlation between HD and OH was moderate. There were no milestones found that may report a punctual event leading to the improvement of information searches. Temporal dependence was corroborated in the RSV on Nutrition, but not in the other two Topics. Strangely, only an association was found on HD searches between the Developing and Least Developed Countries. The study of information search trends may provide useful information on the population’s interest in the disease data, as well as would gradually allow the analysis of differences in popularity, or interest even between different countries. Thus, this information might be used as a guide for public health approaches regarding nutrition and a healthy diet at work.

A Temporal Directed Graph Convolution Network for Traffic Forecasting Using Taxi Trajectory Data

Traffic forecasting plays a vital role in intelligent transportation systems and is of great significance for traffic management. The main issue of traffic forecasting is how to model spatial and temporal dependence. Current state-of-the-art methods tend to apply deep learning models; these methods are unexplainable and ignore the a priori characteristics of traffic flow. To address these issues, a temporal directed graph convolution network (T-DGCN) is proposed. A directed graph is first constructed to model the movement characteristics of vehicles, and based on this, a directed graph convolution operator is used to capture spatial dependence. For temporal dependence, we couple a keyframe sequence and transformer to learn the tendencies and periodicities of traffic flow. Using a real-world dataset, we confirm the superior performance of the T-DGCN through comparative experiments. Moreover, a detailed discussion is presented to provide the path of reasoning from the data to the model design to the conclusions.

Is the Spatial-Temporal Dependence Model Reliable for the Short-Term Freight Volume Forecast of Inland Ports? A Case Study of the Yangtze River, China

The purpose of this study is to investigate whether spatial-temporal dependence models can improve the prediction performance of short-term freight volume forecasts in inland ports. To evaluate the effectiveness of spatial-temporal dependence forecasting, the basic time series forecasting models for use in our comparison were first built based on an autoregression integrated moving average model (ARIMA), a back-propagation neural network (BPNN), and support vector regression (SVR). Subsequently, combining a gradient boosting decision tree (GBDT) with SVR, an SVR-GBDT model for spatial-temporal dependence forecast was constructed. The SVR model was only used to build a spatial-temporal dependence forecasting model, which does not distinguish spatial and temporal information but instead takes them as data features. Taking inland ports in the Yangtze River as an example, the results indicated that the ports’ weekly freight volumes had a higher autocorrelation with the previous 1–3 weeks, and the Pearson correlation values of the ports’ weekly cargo volume were mainly located in the interval (0.2–0.5). In addition, the weekly freight volumes of the inland ports were higher depending on their past data, and the spatial-temporal dependence model improved the performance of the weekly freight volume forecasts for the inland river. This study may help to (1) reveal the significance of spatial correlation factors in ports’ short-term freight volume predictions, (2) develop prediction models for inland ports, and (3) improve the planning and operation of port entities.

Forecasting Recessions with Financial Variables and Temporal Dependence

Extending earlier research on forecasting recessions with financial variables, I examine the importance of additional financial variables and temporal dependence for recession prediction. I show that both additional financial variables, in particular, the Treasury bill spread, default yield spread, stock return volatility, and temporal cubic terms, which account for temporal dependence, independently help to improve not only in-sample, but also out-of-sample recession prediction. I also find that additional financial variables and temporal cubic terms complement each other in enhancing the predictability of recessions, increasing the explanatory power and decreasing prediction error further, compared to their individual performance.