Firm Life Cycle based on Cash Flow Patterns and the Financial Characteristics for Unlisted SMEs

2019 ◽  
Vol 39 (3) ◽  
pp. 31-55
Author(s):  
김성규
2011 ◽  
Vol 86 (6) ◽  
pp. 1969-1994 ◽  
Author(s):  
Victoria Dickinson

ABSTRACT This study develops a firm life cycle proxy using cash flow patterns. The patterns provide a parsimonious indicator of life cycle stage that is free from distributional assumptions (i.e., uniformity). The proxy identifies differential behavior in the persistence and convergence patterns of profitability. For example, return on net operating assets (RNOA) does not mean-revert (spread of 7 percent after five years between mature and decline firms) when examined by life cycle stage, which has implications for growth rates and forecast horizons. Further, determinants of future profitability such as asset turnover and profit margin are differentially successful in generating increases in profitability conditional on life cycle stage. Finally, investors do not fully incorporate the information contained in cash flow patterns and, as a result, undervalue mature firms. The cash flow proxy is a robust tool that has applications in analysis, forecasting, valuation, and as a control variable for future research. Data Availability: All data are available from public sources identified in the paper.


Author(s):  
Sergio Bravo

Abstract A widely used methodology for estimating the beta of companies with the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) uses comparable firms based only on industry or sector classifications (Bancel, F., and U. R. Mittoo. 2014. “The Gap between the Theory and Practice of Corporate Valuation: Survey of European Experts.” Journal of Applied Corporate Finance 26, no. 4 (Fall): 106–17. doi:https://doi.org/10.1111/jacf.12095, 112; KPMG. 2017. “Cost of Capital Study 2017: Diverging Markets, Converging Business Models.” Accessed September 28, 2018. https://assets.kpmg.com/content/dam/kpmg/ch/pdf/cost-of-capital-study-2017-en.pdf, 37). We hypothesize that even within industries, there is a significant relationship between the cost of equity and the life cycle of a firm. We argue that these variables are correlated because different life-cycle stages exhibit different degrees of systematic risk. Therefore, as the firm moves along its life cycle, its unlevered beta decreases. We define the stages of the firm life cycle based on a modification of the theoretical typology of (Miller, D., and P. Friesen. 1984. “A Longitudinal Study of the Corporate Life-Cycle.” Management Sciences 30 (10): 1161–83. http://www.jstor.org/stable/2631384, 1162–3) and then classify a sample of listed companies into these stages using (Dickinson, V. 2011. “Cash Flow Patterns as a Proxy for Firm Life-Cycle.” The Accounting Review 86 (6): 1969–94. doi:https://doi.org/10.2308/accr-10130) cash flow statements methodology. We construct value-weighted portfolios that are formed based on our life-cycle stages classification, adapting the procedure of (Fama, E., and K. R. French. 1993. “Common Risk Factors in the Returns on Stocks and Bonds.” Journal of Financial Economics 33 (1): 3–56. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-405X(93)90023-5). Finally, we compare the betas (levered and unlevered) of these portfolios to determine whether there are statistically significant differences. Our results show clear evidence of a relationship between betas and the corporate life cycle and that this relationship is robust to both changes in the period of analysis and omitted variables bias (when controlling with the four-factor model of (Carhart, M. M. 1997. “On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance.” The Journal of Finance 52 (1): 57–82. doi:https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1997.tb03808.x). We believe our results show an important shortcoming in a widely used methodology among practitioners for estimating the CAPM.


2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 171
Author(s):  
Chizoba Ekwueme ◽  
Rosemary Obiageri Obasi ◽  
Sadiq Rabiu Abdullahi ◽  
Umar Aliyu Mustapha ◽  
Norfadzilah Rashid

The objective of this study is to examine whether companies’ life cycle stages follow a random or sequential developmental pattern using their cash flow patterns. That is to ascertain the optimum life cycle stage of Nigerian companies. Data were obtained from the sampled firms annual reports and accounts, which comprises 79 listed companies on the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) from 2009 to 2013 financial years. The cash flow patterns of the firms were thematically analysed as a proxy of developmental patterns, and transition rates between developmental stages were determined. The study reveals that Introduction firms at T0 transited quickly to the Mature stage (70% in T1 through T3), whereas Growth firms developed most rapidly into Shakeout firms (38% at T1). The Mature stage was most stable; 57–65% of firms in this stage at T0 remained so. By contrast, 60% of Decline firms remained in this stage at T1 before transiting to the Mature and Growth stages at T3 and then ultimately fading away at T4, leaving only the Introduction (20%) and Decline (20%) stages. Thus, the development of firms from one life cycle stage to another is random and not sequential. The study, therefore, recommends that Nigerian companies experience their optimum life cycle stage at the matured stage and firms should employ the use of cash flow patterns to identify their business life cycle stage as this will enable companies to apply strategies to sustain themselves at a target stage of the life cycle.


2018 ◽  
Vol 3 (10) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuliani . ◽  
Isnurhadi . ◽  
D Utami
Keyword(s):  

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2018 ◽  
Vol 56 (11) ◽  
pp. 2408-2436 ◽  
Author(s):  
Feng Jui Hsu

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to assess US-based firms from 2005 to 2015 to determine whether firms with better corporate social responsibility (CSR) performance will allocate capital through their life-cycle to better maintain or extend total assets. Design/methodology/approach Kinder, Lydenberg, Domini Research & Analytics social performance rating scores were used to measure CSR performance in an initial sample of 19,707 firm-year observations. Firms are first classified into stages including introduction, growth, maturity, and decline, and use multiclass linear discriminant analysis, the Dickinson classification scheme (Dickinson, 2011), and the ratio of retained earnings to total assets (RETA) as life-cycle proxies. Life-cycle was formulated based on a broad set of accounting data sourced from Compustat. Various corporate characteristics from the CRSP database were used to classify all sample firms into five equal groups based on their CSR performance. Findings A firm’s equity and debt issuance assume a hump shape over the life-cycle under CSR practice, and higher-CSR firms face fewer significant issues as they mature; payout, RETA, and free cash flow decreased from high-CSR performance firms to low-CSR performance firms; and cash holdings also exhibit a hump shape over the life-cycle and higher-CSR practices are associated with significantly lower cash holdings. Originality/value CSR performance is a useful predictor for forecasting firm life-cycle and superior CSR performance ensures efficient capital allocation throughout firm life-cycle. Furthermore, CSR practice is an indicator of firm life-cycle sustainability and indicates a firm’s future cash flow patterns.


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